Brighton FPL Gameweek 38: Rested Mac Allister to vanquish Villa
A midweek point against Manchester City ensured Brighton secured their first ever involvement in European football, as well as providing FPL managers with some confidence that both Alexis Mac Allister and Lewis Dunk will start in gameweek 38 at Aston Villa.
The Albion have provided some outstanding assets for FPL managers following the arrival of Roberto De Zerbi in September. Their reward for such flying form under the charismatic Italian is their name in the draw for the 2023-24 Europa League.
Since gameweek 9, Brighton have scored 60 goals. That is a total only bettered by City and Arsenal. In the same timeframe, the Albion have created the most chances of any Premier League side with 412.
At the other end of the pitch, Brighton have also been solid by conceding just 108 attempts on target under De Zerbi. Only City and Newcastle United have conceded fewer in that period.
Brighton players like Mac Allister became even more popular with FPL managers because De Zerbi had a pretty settled and predictable starting XI.
Recently, however, that has changed. The Albion have faced 14 matches in the final eight weeks of the campaign, leading De Zerbi to rotate his squad. Every player has been given a rest so far, barring the exceptional Pervis Estupinan.
This has proven a bit of a worry for FPL managers with an element of risk attached to almost all Brighton picks, even the likes of Moises Caicedo, Kaoru Mitoma and Pascal Gross.
That risk has been reduced when it comes to Mac Allister (£5.6 million), whose benching for the 1-1 draw against Man City suggests he will start against Villa.
It could yet prove to be his last game in a Seagulls shirt, with Liverpool eyeing a summer move. The popular Argentinian will no doubt want to go out on a high, having achieved so much during his time at the Amex.
Mac Allister has the best underlying stats across Brighton’s attackers since De Zerbi’s arrival, ranking top for both expected goals (xG) and expected goal involvement (xGI).
His 73 attempts on goal are also more than any of his teammates throughout this period. Of all regularly starting midfielders (over 25 starts since gameweek 9) only Mo Salah (£13.1 million), Marcus Rashford (£7.2 million) and Said Benrahma (£5.5 million) have a chance more often than Mac Allister delivering one every 30.6 minutes.
Mac Allister’s penalty responsibilities and great underlying stats – as well as him being as close to a guaranteed starter at Villa Park as there is – mean he looks the best Brighton pick for gameweek 38.
Captain Fantastic
On the final day, there is often a lot of rotation across the Premier League squads so chose your captain wisely. Many will opt for Erling Haaland (£12.4 million) but City’s two upcoming finals mean they could heavily rotate their starting line-up at Brentford.
Meanwhile, Tottenham’s Harry Kane (£11.4 million) has now returned in each of his last six matches, registering 47 points.
He faces a Leeds United side that needs a win to have any chance of Premier League survival. These opponents will likely deploy a high defensive line, which is something that Kane could exploit with Spurs’ counter attacking football.
Thank you to Fantasy Football Scout for their expert advice throughout the 2022-23 Premier League season.
