Match Preview: Brighton face tough task at in-form Everton
Every year when we run a Brighton v Everton match preview we seem to say that this could be the year that the Toffees finally have a crack at the top six and it invariably never is.
Ronald Koeman spent big but couldn’t deliver and it was left to Big Sam Allardyce to put down his pint of wine and save Everton from a relegation battle.
Marco Silva then came in, a bright young manager with innovative ideas but he too fell short. No matter how much money or how good their signings appeared on paper, Everton kept failing to make an impression at the right end of the table.
Maybe not this year. Carlo Ancelotti was a world class appointment as manager halfway through 2019-20 and he has attracted some seriously talented players who are delivering results to match their reputations. Brighton are in for a tough afternoon at Goodison Park.
Everton this season
Everton’s record this season reads played six, won six across all competitions. That leaves them third in the Premier League table behind Leicester City and their cross-city rivals Liverpool and into the quarter finals of the Carabao Cup as they look for a first major trophy since winning the FA Cup in 1995.
It hasn’t exactly been a gentle start either. The Toffees won away at Tottenham Hotspur on the opening day and whilst their second league success came at home to West Bromwich Albion who do look something of a shambles, they picked up their third victory at Crystal Palace.
Whisper it quietly, but Selhurst Park is a difficult place to go early in the season before Palace fade into their normal mid table obscurity. That makes victory at that cesspit an impressive three points.
All in all, a very good beginning then. And the scary thing is, Everton are only going to get better from here as the likes of James Rodriguez and the wonderfully named Allan become more accustomed to English football.
Recent form
Oh bugger, we have already covered this. It is worth repeating though – six wins from six and 20 goals scored. The Toffees are bang in form.
This match preview is not all about Everton though and before we all decide defeat for Brighton on Merseyside is a foregone conclusion, it is worth remembering that the Albion have been excellent away from home for many months now.
You have to go back to January to find the last time the Seagulls lost on the road, that shambolic 3-1 defeat away at Plucky Little Bournemouth.
Since then, Graham Potter has taken his side to West Ham United, Sheffield United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leicester City, Norwich City, Southampton, Burnley, Newcastle United and Preston North End and they haven’t lost.
Eight Premier League games unbeaten on the road is the best current streak in the division. Something has to give at Goodison; either Everton’s 100 percent start or the Albion’s proud away record.
Everton v Brighton Head-to-Head
Everton have spent pretty much their entire existence in the top flight whereas the Albion have been among the elite for just eight seasons.
With Brighton avoiding the Toffees in cup competitions in a similar manner to Prince Andrew and the FBI, games between the clubs have been few and far between with just 17 previous meetings.
Everton have won eight, Brighton four, leaving five draws. None of these Seagulls successes have come at Goodison Park either; in seven visits to the blue half of Merseryside, we have just two draws to show for our efforts.
Of course, Graham Potter took the Albion to Preston North End in the Carabao Cup 10 days ago, where we had a similarly appalling record having never previously won at Deepdale.
History was made with a 2-0 success. Rewriting the history books again at Goodison Park would be a real statement of what this Brighton squad are capable of.
Brighton & Hove Albion’s Head-to-Head record with Everton
Last six meetings
• Everton 0-1 Brighton (Premier League, 11/01/20)
• Brighton 3-2 Everton (Premier League, 27/10/19)
• Brighton 1-0 Everton (Premier League, 29/12/18)
• Everton 3-1 Brighton (Premier League, 03/11/18)
• Everton 2-0 Brighton (Premier League, 10/03/18)
• Brighton 1-1 Everton (Premier League, 15/10/17)
Right. We know that this section of our Everton v Brighton match preview looks good with two wins and a draw from the last six meetings. But those two wins came with a caveat – victory against the Toffees may not necessarily be a good thing.
Last October’s VAR-led 3-2 winner was followed by a run of just three victories from the next 20, plunging the Albion from the dizzy heights of eighth in the table into the relegation battle before lockdown saved our bacon.
It was a similar story the season before when Jurgen Locadia scored the only goal at the Amex to defeat Everton 1-0. The Albion went onto win two in 18 following that success and Chris Hughton found himself out of a job.
Going further back, a 3-1 victory at the Goldstone Ground against Everton in February 1982 left Brighton in eighth place in the Division One table and dreaming of UEFA Cup football.
The Seagulls stayed in that lofty position for another month until a run of just two wins in the final 14 games of the season saw Mike Bailey’s slide slip to 13th. That remains the Albion’s highest finish – despite which Bailey was sacked six months later and relegation from the top flight followed in May 1983.
Perhaps is is best if we do not beat Everton. Three points now isn’t worth the subsequent garbage that traditionally follows.
Team news
Ancelotti’s decision to send out a full strength team in Everton’s 4-1 Carabao Cup win against West Ham in midweek may have backfired slightly as Allan and Richarlison both left proceedings early with injuries. The Albion’s chances of success would be significantly boosted should either of those not recover in time.
Graham Potter meanwhile is without the injured Davy Propper; Alexis Mac Allister is a doubt after picking up a knock in Brighton’s own League Cup fixture against Manchester United and there has been no word on whether new £3.5 million striker Andi Zeqiri has been granted international clearance.
On the plus side, Yves Bissouma is available again after serving a three match ban for channelling his inner Shawn Michaels and performing Sweet Chin Music on Jamal Lewis at Newcastle a fortnight ago.
Bissouma had been in excellent form prior to that, leaving Potter with a dilemma as to whether the Malian should be instantly restored to the starting line up. Neither Steve Alzate nor Adam Lallana put a foot wrong against United last week.
Everton’s danger men
Signing James Rodriguez for £20 million was an unreal piece of business on Everton’s part when you consider that the current transfer market means that Ollie Watkins is moving from Brentford to Aston Villa for £28 million and Ben White is worth over £30 million before he’s even kicked a ball in the Premier League.
Rodriguez has been in sparkling form since his summer arrival, but it says much about how good Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been that Everton’s Colombian international superstar has been outshone by the young English striker.
Calvert-Lewin has eight goals already this season, including two hat-tricks. The Albion will need to find a way to keep him quiet if they are to return from Goodison Park with anything to show for their efforts.
The betting value for Everton v Brighton
Calvert-Lewin will not be the only danger. Richarlison loves a goal against Brighton and has three in his past four encounters with the Seagulls. The Brazilian is 13/8 to score anytime.
A much bigger price for an anytime goalscorer is Michael Keane. Yes, we know that he isn’t fit to lace Lewis Dunk’s boots and it is a joke that Keane is constantly picked for the England squad.
The bigger joke though is Brighton’s defending from set pieces. The Albion have been incapable of marking players with any conviction so far in 2020-21 and that makes centre backs coming up for corners an alluring option in the betting stakes.
Keane is 16/1 to notch with Lucas Digne 11/1. For comparison, Teddy Jenks is 11/2, Jose Izquierdo 4/1 and Florin Andone 11/4.
An interesting subplot
As we have just noted in our Everton v Brighton preview, the whole Keane versus Dunk thing has added something to this fixture. We have accepted that Gareth Southgate is never going to pick the Albion captain for England, presumably because Dunk killed Southgate’s cat or something, but even so it is always interesting to see Dunk on the same pitch as one of his rivals for a Three Lions spot.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Everton away
Liverpool may be one of the best away days in the country, but we have never seen the Albion take so much as a point at Everton. And one time, we didn’t even get to see us lose there…
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Everton away
Ah yes, that infamous November afternoon in 2018 when a diet of two bottles of Prosecco on the train up, six beers in Liverpool and nothing to eat but a small pack of M&S sushi saw one member of the WeAreBrighton.com team turned away at the turnstiles by an overzealous steward for being too drunk.
Whilst his 3,000 fellow Brighton fans were watching the Albion lose 3-1, our man in question took himself off for a curry and spent the afternoon watching a Beatles tribute band in The Cavern Club. You could argue the steward did him a favour.
Everton’s most famous fan
It is at this point in our Everton v Brighton match preview that we normally get in trouble for mentioning a certain someone who went missing. So, we will skip over them this time and instead settle for Amanda Holden, who remains a very attractive if slightly annoying woman.
Prediction
This is a tough one to predict. Brighton have been excellent in their three games so far and Everton’s record speaks for itself. The heart says we could come away with a point; the head however remembers how poor we have been defensively against Chelsea and Manchester United.
Everton are scoring a lot of goals, and that means we are going with a 2-1 defeat for Brighton as our preview prediction.
