Match Preview: Fans back at the Amex for Brighton v Southampton

After nine long months, we are finally writing a match preview for a Premier League game which Brighton supporters can attend as Southampton are the visitors to the Amex.

2,000 lucky Albion fans have been chosen at random to watch Seagulls versus Saints in a socially distanced manner. It will be the first time that the stands will have been populated since the 1-0 defeat to Crystal Palace back in February, when the Albion looked like they were sleepwalking into the Championship having won just twice in 18 matches.

Much has changed since then. Graham Potter managed to turn things around post-lockdown, securing a 15th placed finish and a highest ever Premier League points total. Brighton have continued that form into 2020-21, playing some excellent football even if results have not matched performances.

There are new faces to watch with Tariq Lamptey, Adam Lallana, Danny Welbeck and Joel Veltman having never played for Brighton in front of a crowd before.

The chance to see Lamptey live and in-person is particularly exciting given that he looks like one of the best players that the Albion have had in quite some time.

If you are one of the fortunate ones to have a ticket, then enjoy it. Fingers crossed it is the first step towards eventually having 30,000 back at the Amex cheering the Seagulls into the top 10 and beyond over the coming years.

Think that sounds farfetched? Just have a look at Southampton for what is possible for a club of our size…

Southampton this season
Back in October 2019, Southampton were 19th and had just suffered the joint biggest home defeat in English top flight football history when Leicester City won 9-0 at St Mary’s.

Many clubs would have lost faith with their manager at that point in time. Ralph Hasenhüttl was a young, attack minded boss a year into the job, trying to introduce a very different playing style to the squad he had inherited from Mark Hughes, who had spent the past couple of seasons battling relegation.

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Anyway, the Saints stuck with Hasenhüttl despite that initial year of questionable results and eventually, it clicked.

Southampton ended up miles clear of the relegation zone and have carried that form into this season, sitting sixth in the table before this weekend’s round of matches. They had been top in October for the first time since Maggie Thatcher was on the throne.

European qualification looks a very real possibility at this stage, which goes to show what happens when you take a long-term view and give a manager the time he needs to change the mentality and approach of a club. A lesson there for anyone who thinks sacking Graham Potter when we inevitably suffer another disappointing result is the answer.

Recent form
Whilst the Saints may be flying high, they have had a few issues on the road. They have kept just one clean sheet away from home, which should give Brighton hope of finding a way past Alex McCarthy.

Prior to last week’s defeat to Manchester United, Southampton were unbeaten in seven having won five and drawn two. It might be easy to sit here and say that the reason they were in such good form was because of a gentle fixture list which included Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, but then you remember that Brighton have failed to beat both of those sides in ‘easy’ home matches already.

Since the disappointment of drawing 0-0 against the Clarets at the Amex, the Albion have picked up markedly, however. The 2-1 win away at fifth placed Aston Villa was an excellent result and Brighton played so well in the 1-1 draw at home to Liverpool that Jurgen Klopp, James Milner and Jordan Henderson all threw hissy fits about various things they blamed for their failure to win in Sussex.

Despite all those complaints, Brighton more than matched the champions and if Neal Maupay and Aaron Connolly had converted very, very basic chances then the Albion would have won. Based on the Liverpool performance, there is no reason to fear the Saints.

Brighton v Southampton head-to-head
Whenever the media preview or cover Brighton v Southampton, they refer to it as a ‘South Coast derby’ which is plainly nonsense. The two cities are located over 90 miles apart and there has never been any real rivalry between the two clubs, stretching back the 117 years since the fixture was first played.

Since 1903, there have been 96 meetings across a whole host of different competitions. Brighton have won 28, there have been 25 draws with Southampton tasting victory on 43 occasions.

The Saints’ dominance of the fixture should not come as a surprise, really. They have been the better team for much of our respective histories, something which is reflected in the fact that just eight of the Albion’s wins have come in Football League competitions from 47 attempts.

Brighton’s head-to-head record with Southampton

Last six meetings
• Southampton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League, 16/07/20)
• Brighton 0-2 Southampton (Premier League, 24/08/19)
• Brighton 0-1 Southampton (Premier League, 30/03/19)
• Southampton 2-2 Brighton (Premier League, 17/09/18)
• Brighton 0-1 Southampton (League Cup Second Round, 28/08/18)
• Southampton 1-1 Brighton (Premier League, 31/01/18)

This makes for pretty grim reading, doesn’t it? Brighton are yet to beat Southampton since winning promotion to the Premier League back in 2017, putting the Saints alongside Leicester, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea as the only regular top flight opponents we are yet to take three points from.

You have to go back to January 2nd 2012 to find Brighton’s last win over Southampton. It looked like Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named had hit the New Year’s Eve vino a little too hard when he put Sexy Pete Brezovan in goal and gave 17-year-old Jake Forster-Caskey his full league debut, but those two decisions were richly vindicated as Forster-Caskey scored and Matt Sparrow hit a brace to secure a memorable 3-0 victory.

Team news
We always say that attempting to predict a Potter starting XI in a match preview is a futile exercise and it looks even more so ahead of the visit of Southampton as the Brighton boss has quite the selection dilemma.

The Albion were excellent last week against Liverpool, so how does Potter justify changing the team? He will need to find a way as Tariq Lamptey is back from suspension and far too good to sit on the bench.

Lamptey could be a straight swap for Joel Veltman. Or Veltman could play in the back three with Ben White in midfield or Adam Webster dropped. Or Veltman might even have a go in the middle of the park himself. The possibilities are endless.

Then there is the question of what happens to Maupay? He took a woeful penalty last week and then subbed himself off with a bruised ego. Something does not look quite right with the Frenchman and there is a consensus building among a lot of supporters that he might benefit with a period out of the team to sort out whatever is going on.

Potter’s opinion is the only one that matters in that regard. He has shown that he is not afraid to drop Maupay after he omitted the striker for the 2-1 defeat at Spurs. Will he repeat the trick against the Saints?

Southampton’s danger men
Much of Southampton’s success following that 9-0 hammering against Leicester came because Danny Ings suddenly started finding the back of the net.

Ings has spent the past month out injured and as results show, the Saints are less dependent on him than many football followers thought. Che Adams and Theo Walcott have led the line admirably in Ings’ absence and whoever lines up in attack for Southampton, the Albion defence look to be in for a testing evening.

There is a chance that it could yet be Ings. He is back in training although this game may come too soon for him. Fingers crossed.

The betting value for Brighton v Southampton
You might have noticed, but Brighton cannot defend set pieces for love nor money. And in James Ward-Prowse, Southampton possess one of the best set piece takers in the Premier League.

Which could spell the sort of chaos and confusion you rarely see outside of the A27 through Worthing in rush hour. Back whoever Southampton’s two starting centre backs are to get their head on at least one Ward-Prowse delivery as an anytime goal scorer.

An interesting subplot
We have been surprised that not many preview pieces have picked up on the fact that White was released by Southampton as a 16-year-old before being snapped up by Brighton.

Perhaps this is because it would ruin the illusion that White went to The Leeds United last year as a man who did not even know what a football was, only for Marcelo Bielsa to turn him into the world’s best defender. Sometimes, you just have to let those Leeds fans hang onto their delusional fairy tales.

With White now worth well over £35 million, letting him go looks like being a costly mistake by Southampton. It will be interesting to see how he gets on against the club where his career nearly began.

A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Southampton at home
That 3-0 Brighton win over Southampton which we have already mentioned in our match preview was pretty bloody good. Not only did it end a desperate run of form, but it also wiped Nigel Adkins’ smug little grin away for a couple of hours, something which was always a pleasing outcome.

A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Southampton at home
Two words – Florin Andone. Brighton were battering Southampton in our meeting at the Amex last season until Florin Andone decided that he fancied attempting to break the leg of Yan Valery.

A straight red card for the horror tackle was the only possible outcome, leaving the Albion to play for over an hour in stifling heat with 10 men. A 2-0 defeat predictably followed.

Potter realised at that point that Andone was a complete liability as he took his Brighton record to six goals and six games missed through suspension.

The Romanian was subsequently shipped out on loan to Galatasaray and then gave an interview to The Athletic in which he blamed Chris Hughton, Glenn Murray, Jurgen Locadia (LOL) and anyone else he could think of for the fact his Brighton career had not taken off. He even had the nerve to suggest that his assault on Valery was not worthy of a red card.

What possible conclusion could you draw from all this other than that Andone was in fact mad? And to think, some Brighton fans believe a man who spends as much time sitting in the stands banned as he does scoring goals could be the Albion’s saviour.

Southampton’s most famous fan
It does not come much more famous than Craig David, a man with a wonderful back catalogue of musical hits and who, according to Jenny from Gogglebox, was one of the best James Bonds there has been.

Prediction
With four draws from six previous Premier League games between Brighton and Southampton, our match preview prediction is for history to repeat itself. Brighton 1-1 Southampton.