Match Preview: Brighton host Everton looking for a rare Monday night win
The Boomtown Rats used to sing about how much they hated Mondays and our match preview of Brighton v Everton is probably going to give out similar vibes.
Since winning promotion to the Premier League in 2017, the Albion have never won a match which has taken place on a Monday night. Given the frequency with which Sky and BT Sport chop and change the fixture list, this is a slight problem.
Ending that barren run of six draws and three defeats on the opening day of the week when the Toffees come to the Amex would enable Graham Potter and his players to take a big step towards Premier League safety.
The weekend’s results went very favourably for the Albion; Fulham lost right at the death against Wolves and Newcastle United defeating Burnley means that, if you look up the table rather than down, the Clarets are now in Brighton’s sights.
Victory over Everton would lift the Seagulls above Burnley and open a nine point gap to Fulham. Banish those Monday blues and a fifth successive season of top flight football will be within touching distance.
Everton this season
It is hard to know what to make of Everton’s 2020-21 season really. At the start of the campaign, a lot of people were tipping them to challenge for the top four thanks to the shrewd appointment of Carlo Ancelotti as manager and some high class acquisitions, most notably James Rodriguez.
When Brighton went to Goodison Park back in early October, the Toffees were top of the table. 25 games later and they sit eighth, eight points behind West Ham United in the top four but with two games in hand.
Whilst it represents progress on their recent campaigns in which Ronald Koeman, Sam Allardyce and Marco Silva have come and gone through a revolving door, it still feels like a bit of a disappointment based on that early optimism.
Off the pitch, Everton have at least provided us one of the all-time great football rumours. Last month it was said that Rodriguez’s recent absence from injury and the fact that a world class player was willing to rock up at a midtable Premier League side was because he was transitioning to become a woman.
Rodriguez’s recent reappearance in Ancelotti’s first team has revealed that to unsurprisingly be untrue. Hats off to whoever came up with it though.
Recent form
Brighton will meet Everton in slightly better form having won two of their last three matches and pushed Manchester United close last time out before some extremely questionable refereeing once again helped United to three points.
No manager has yet been able to find a way to combat Potter’s new W-M formation, last seen in English top flight football in the 1930s. Ancelotti will be the first world class boss who has come up against it, so it will be fascinating to see what he has conjured up to counter the Albion’s fresh approach.
The Toffees have failed to win any of their past four fixtures in all competitions, drawing with Crystal Palace last time out after losing to Chelsea and Burnley and exiting the FA Cup at the quarter final stage against Manchester City.
That run is part of a sequence of results which includes only three victories from their last 11, which explains why their top four dream is now looking a little distant.
Brighton v Everton head-to-head
Everton have spent pretty much their entire history in the top flight whereas Brighton have spent most of their 120 years being not very good.
Meetings between the clubs have therefore been few and far between, with just 18 previous matches. Everton have won nine, Brighton four, leaving five draws.
The good news is that all four of those Seagulls successes have come in Sussex. If Brighton are going to beat Everton anywhere, then the past suggests it will happen when the Albion host.
Brighton & Hove Albion’s Head-to-Head record with Everton
Last six meetings
• Everton 4-2 Brighton (Premier League, 03/10/20)
• Everton 0-1 Brighton (Premier League, 11/01/20)
• Brighton 3-2 Everton (Premier League, 27/10/19)
• Brighton 1-0 Everton (Premier League, 29/12/18)
• Everton 3-1 Brighton (Premier League, 03/11/18)
• Everton 2-0 Brighton (Premier League, 10/03/18)
This part of our Brighton v Everton match preview does not look too shabby. The Albion have won the last two matches between the sides at the Amex and when you factor in the 1-1 draw in the 2017-18 season, the Toffees have never won at the House Which Bloom Built.
Team news
The big team news for our Brighton v Everton preview is that Adam Webster is back in training. The Albion have sorely missed the defender over the past two months with his absence highlighting just how important he is to Potter’s team, something that many supporters may not have fully appreciated before.
Whether he is fit enough to start is another question entirely. Potter would also have a hard time dropping any of his back three; Lewis Dunk is obviously not getting jettisoned, Ben White has played every game this season when available and Joel Veltman has been Brighton’s best player in the second half of the season.
Potter could move Veltman back to right wing back, but that would then change the dynamics of the new W-M formation. And where do you deploy Pascal Gross? He has been popping up with assists left, right and centre since Christmas so to drop him would be controversial to say the least.
Webster may have to settle for a place on the bench. That we are saying that about a player so important tells you a lot of about how strong Potter’s current squad is.
Everton’s danger men
Rodriguez is the star name but Everton’s danger man this season has been Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The striker has enjoyed an excellent campaign, scoring goals galore and breaking into the England squad as Harry Kane’s understudy.
As an old-school target man type of centre forward, Calvert-Lewin can expect to get a lot of joy against Brighton. The Albion have a real issue defending crosses into the box – most notably from set pieces – and the Everton striker has all the tools to profit.
The betting value for Brighton v Everton
For the reasons listed in the above part of our preview, Calvert-Lewin to score anytime seems like a pretty decent value bet for Brighton v Everton. He is available at 41/20 which is longer odds than Neal Maupay, bizarrely.
Backing Brighton to draw at home this season has proven to generate nearly as much profit as drinking in Matt Hancock’s local pub. Everton seems like exactly the sort of game which will end in stalemate, and you can lump on that at 23/10.
An interesting subplot
We do not need to go over Brighton’s Monday night form again, do we…
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Everton at home
The 3-2 victory last time Everton came to the Amex had everything. The football on show was ridiculously entertaining, VAR went in Brighton’s favour for once and a last minute goal won it for the Albion.
Arguably the best part though was the weather. So much rain fell that Noah would have been reaching for his toolkit to start work on an ark if he was around.
Whenever conditions are like that at the Amex, it is hard not to think back a decade to what watching such a game at Withdean would have been like. Not having to spend the next four days trying to dry off after watching 90 minutes of football is a reminder of how far we have come.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Everton at home
Seeing as we have only played Everton three times at home since 1983, none of the WAB team were even born last time the Toffees tasted victory on the south coast.
The 1-1 draw in 2017 is the worst experience of Everton at home, largely because it was moved to a Sunday lunchtime kick off to be shown live in India.
Everything that is a wrong with modern football and the pandering to overseas markets right there – especially if you happened to be at the Amex with a raging hangover.
Everton’s most famous fan
It is at this point in our Brighton v Everton match preview that we normally get in trouble for mentioning a certain someone who went missing. So, we will avoid them this time and instead settle for Amanda Holden, who remains ridiculously attractive.
Prediction
A seventh Monday Night Football draw for the Albion – Brighton 1-1 Everton.
