Hello Señor Guardiola and Manchester City, you may remember Brighton…
What was your favourite moment of the 2020-21 season? For me, it was seeing Pep Guardiola completely lose his mind when his Manchester City squad costing a billion petrodollars lost to a Dan Burn goal against little old Brighton.
One minute, Guardiola had been calling Graham Potter the best English manager around when City had smashed 10 unanswered goals past Potter’s Albion in the previous three matches.
The next, Guardiola is storming down the tunnel at the Amex and refusing to shake hands with his former bestie after seeing the Citizens chuck away a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2.
That victory over City felt like a big moment in the Potter Project and it certainly looks that way five months on. Brighton have lost only one Premier League game since and come into their next meeting against the Citizens just two points behind Guardiola’s superstars in the Premier League table.
If the Albion were to beat City again, they would leapfrog their visitors to go third. Lightning cannot strike twice, can it?
Manchester City this season
The purpose of Manchester City these days is to win silverware. This is so everyone associates Abu Dhabi with great football, rather than being a place where homosexuality is punishable by death and the kafala system which Amnesty International describe as modern-day slavery exists.
In sportswashing and trophy terms then, 2020-21 was a bit of a disappointment. City ‘only’ lifted the Premier League title and the Carabao Cup.
They fell short in the FA Cup, eliminated 1-0 at the semi final stage by Chelsea. Thomas Tuchel’s Blues did for City in the final of the Champions League too, winning by the same scoreline at Porto’s Estadio do Dragao.
The elusive title of European Champions is the one which City really want. Guardiola spent most of the summer complaining that he did not have the money available to sign players to push his side over the line in that competition, only for Sheikh Mansour to go and find a spare £100 million down the back of the sofa so City could break the English transfer record to buy Jack Grealish from Aston Villa.
And yet despite spending the GDP of an actual nation building their current squad, City have somehow forgotten to sign an actual striker.
Sergio Aguero departed the Etihad Stadium in the summer and as a move for Harry Kane failed to materialise, Guardiola instead finds himself trying to win four trophies without a recognised centre forward, other than Gabriel Jesus, who for one reason or another the manager does not rate.
This approach has had mixed results so far. They have dropped seven points, losing to Spurs and drawing with Liverpool and Southampton. Whilst there is no shame in those two results, City’s failure to beat the Saints should give Albion fans cause for optimism.
As already noted, that leaves Manchester City third in the table, one place and two points better off than Brighton – making this clash at the Amex are big one in the race for the Premier League. Maybe Pep will pay Potter and the Albion a bit more respect this time?
Team news
Potter confirmed that Brighton have no fresh injury worries, meaning that the same squad who drew 0-0 with Norwich City last week are fit and available.
Adam Webster has a slight chance of making it having trained this week, which in Potter terms means he will be available in mid-January.
It is hard to see many changes from the stalemate at Carrow Road to be honest. There may be a clamour for Tariq Lamptey to start. Chucking him in against such high intensity opponents as City after 30 minutes of Premier League football in the past 10 months would however be a massive ask and possibly a bit of a risk.
A Lamptey return would presumably mean one of Dan Burn or Joel Veltman making way. Burn was outstanding in the second half against Norwich and Veltman marked Grealish out of the game when Brighton drew 0-0 with Villa at the Amex last season, so dumping either of those would not appear the wisest idea either.
Key battles
City are packed with quality all over the pitch and even if you nullify one threat, there are three or four others you then have to try and cope with.
Should Grealish start, he will undoubtedly be looking to do better against Veltman, who pocketed England’s golden boy in a way few other defenders have managed in the last two seasons. That serves as a reminder of just how good Veltman is.
Phil Foden has been in pretty irresistible form since his return from the injury which ruled him out of the Euro 2020 (in 2021) final.
For reasons that are still yet to be fully explained, Foden was booed in City’s visit to the Amex back in May. Not the wisest move from the Albion crowd as that simply served to rile Foden up, the result being a brilliant individual goal in which he effectively carried the ball from inside the City half before beating Robert Sanchez and cupping his ear to the stands.
Marc Cucurella has looked outstanding in his two Amex appearances so far because of the licence he has found to go rampaging forward at will. Foden and City will provide a very different test of the credentials of the man with the best hair in the Premier League.
Recent form
There is a reason that this is a meeting between the sides third and fourth in the table (we will never get bored of saying that) and that is because both Manchester City and Brighton have been in fine recent form.
The Albion have suffered just one defeat all season when Potter was tactically naïve against Everton. There seems little chance be will make the same mistake against a side as good as City.
A large part of Brighton’s success has been down to the mean mood Sanchez and his back three have been in. The Albion have conceded the second lowest number of goals in the Premier League so far. The two sides with less? Chelsea and City.
It will be interesting to see if this one follows the form guide and is dominated by defence or whether something gives and we get another five goal thriller.
- 16/10/21: Norwich 0-0 Brighton
- 02/10/21: Brighton 0-0 Arsenal
- 27/09/21: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton
- 22/09/21: Brighton 2-0 Swansea City
- 19/09/21: Brighton 2-1 Leicester City
- 11/09/21: Brentford 0-1 Brighton
So, about City being third in the table. We have kind of glossed over the fact that they have had a pretty difficult start to the season having already played away against Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool.
And that defensive record that is better than Brighton’s? Spurs and Liverpool are the only opponents to have breached Ederson’s goal.
Otherwise, City have six clean sheets from eight matches including shutouts from victories over Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester City. Just in case you thought that this was going to be easy…
- 19/10/21: Club Brugge 1-5 Manchester City
- 16/10/21: Manchester City 2-0 Burnley
- 03/10/21: Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City
- 28/09/21: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Manchester City
- 25/09/21: Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City
- 21/09/21: Chelsea 6-1 Wycombe Wanderers
Last time we met
Oh look, another excuse to bring up the events of Brighton 3-2 Manchester City. The start was very much Typical Brighton as the biggest permitted Amex crowd for 18 months were treated to the Albion going 1-0 down inside of two minutes.
The Seagulls rallied though and Danny Welbeck drew a clever last man foul from Joao Cancelo, leaving the City defender to head for an early bath and his teammates to try and negotiate the next 80 minutes without him.
Even with 10 men, the Citizens should have had enough quality to beat Brighton. It looked like that would be the case when Foden doubled the advantage early in the second half but that merely provided a platform for a famous Albion comeback.
The unplayable Leandro Trossard left Premier League Player of the Season Ruben Dias on his arse for goal one. Webster headed home goal two and then Burn scuffed in a winner with 14 minutes remaining.
It was the most anti-football goal you can imagine and therefore the least Guardiola one. Honestly, it was a surprise that Pep was not physically sick. Instead, he just settled for throwing his toys out the pram.
Brighton v Manchester City head-to-head
Brighton’s May win was their first over City in the Premier League and only their fifth in 25 previous meetings. City have been victorious on 16 occasions with five draws thrown in.
It is a match which has thrown up some interesting moments in the past. Guardiola tearing his hair out has been well covered already and he is not the only manager to have been impacted by Brighton v Manchester City.
Chris Hughton and the Citizens’ Bond, John Bond both lost their jobs in the immediate aftermath of the fixture. Brighton chief ball boy Keith Cuss was also famously fired for besmirching the good name of the Albion when heading a loose ball into the West Stand to time waste in the final minutes of the 1989 meeting at the Goldstone Ground.
City went apoplectic with rage and demand that the Seagulls sack Cuss, who at 41-years-old was probably a bit too long in the tooth to be a ball boy anyway. Remarkably, the Albion bowed into the demands of City, bullied by the bigger and more powerful club. A shame.
A reason why Brighton will win
Brighton tended to play better against the bigger clubs last season, hence why there were victories over Manchester City, Liverpool and Spurs.
The rest of the league seems to have put the Seagulls’ flying start down to an easy fixture list, but what if Potter and his players mix the same results they picked up against the so-called European Super League elite with a new-found ability to beat those struggles towards the bottom of the table?
Something really special might then be building on the south coast. City at home is our first real opportunity to find out.
A reason why Manchester City will win
Money, money, money, must be funny, in a rich Sheikh’s world.
Brighton v Manchester City betting
This is one of those matches where it might be worth leaving the betting well alone. City should win and the odds reflect that.
Having said that, neither do the odds reflect that Brighton have lost only once and are just two points behind their visitors. The Albion are as big as 41/5 to run out victors in places.
If you do believe that this Seagulls side can compete at the right end of the table, then that might be worth a cheeky five pound note.
Prediction
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 Manchester City
Prediction of whether Pep Guardiola will like Graham Potter after: Yes
