A first Brighton win at Everton would be the perfect way to start 2022
If 2022 is to be the year when Brighton scale heights never reached before, then a history-making win at Everton would be a very apt way to kick things off.
In nine previous visits to Goodison Park, the Albion are yet to return from the blue half of Liverpool with three points. Draws in the 1981-82 and 1982-83 season are as good as it gets for the Seagulls, who always find facing the Toffees in their own back yard somewhat of a sticky experience.
Graham Potter and his players have ever had should be looking to set all kinds of new records in 2022. A highest ever top flight finish. Good progress in the FA Cup.
Maybe even European football are all dreams and aspirations being held about what this best squad in Brighton history could achieve.
The Albion getting their Everton away hoodoo off their backs with three points would therefore set down a marker for the next 12 months.
Everton this season
Who knows what to make of Everton this season? They began the campaign in flying form, winning four and drawing one of their first six Premier League matches.
Included in that sequence was the Toffees winning at the Amex, becoming the only opposition to defeat Brighton in the Albion’s opening seven games across all competitions in the process.
Like the Seagulls, their form tailed off alarmingly following a blistering start. Since defeating Norwich City on September 25th, Everton have won just one Premier League match, a 2-1 victory over Arsenal four weeks ago. The Toffees’ other results read two draws and seven defeats.
This is bad news for Rafa Benitez, who was an already deeply unpopular appointment because of his Liverpool links. Benitez has faced increasingly vocal calls for his sacking ever since the first signs of trouble appeared.
The win over Arsenal and a draw with Chelsea appeared to steady the ship slightly before Christmas. Everton were badly hit by injuries and Covid-19 over the festive period and have seen their three most recent games called off.
They will therefore either come into the clash at Goodison well rested to face an Albion side playing their third game in seven days. Or they will be rusty and lacking momentum after an enforced break of nearly three weeks. Brighton will hope it is the latter.
Team news
With Brighton having battled through all their festive fixtures, it seems likely Potter will make changes for the trip to Everton.
Shane Duffy and Adam Webster were both rested to the bench for the 1-1 midweek draw at Chelsea, presumably to save them for this one.
Quite how Potter justifies changing his back three of Joel Veltman, Dan Burn and Marc Cucurella after that result at Stamford Bridge is anyone’s guess.
Having started both Brentford and Chelsea games and being kicked off the park in the latter, Tariq Lamptey would be one obvious candidate to rest. Adam Lallana too has an age and injury record that suggests giving him three starts in a week may not be the wisest course of action.
Potter has said that Leandro Trossard has an outside chance of being fit to return, which in Brighton terms means he will be back at some point in March. And after hitting the equaliser at Chelsea, Danny Welbeck must be knocking on the door of a start.
The main team news surrounding Everton is that Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be involved for the first time since August following a succession of injuries.
Benitez having to make do without the services of his leading centre forward partly explains why the Toffees have slumped so alarmingly over the past three months.
Brighton know just what a dangerous opponent Calvert-Lewin can be, the striker having scored three times in his last four appearances against the Albion.
Key battles
Calvert-Lewin’s outstanding record when facing Brighton makes stopping him one very obvious route to success. Whoever’s key comes out of Potter’s selection bowl to start at centre back will have a tough task on their hands, although they can take inspiration from the outstanding job Big Dan Burn did against Romelu Lukaku in midweek.
The last time Brighton played Everton, the game was decided in the wide areas. For Potter to not pay attention and counter the threat posed by the likes of Demari Gray and Andros Townsend would be rather foolish given previous experience.
Recent form
It is amazing what a couple of positive results can do to the mood, isn’t it? Beating Brentford on Boxing Day and then that last-gasp draw at Chelsea have reignited the belief in both Brighton players and fans after a testing run of 11 games without a win.
The Albion’s form guide now reads one defeat in their past six. Neither Brighton or Everton have won many games since September – just two victories between them – but the difference is that the Albion do not lose many either.
Everton on the other hand are frequently beaten, giving Brighton hope that this might just be the occasion when the finally win at Goodison.
- 29/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
- 26/12/21: Brighton 2-0 Brentford
- 15/12/21: Brighton 0-1 Wolves
- 04/12/21: Southampton 1-1 Brighton
- 01/12/21: West Ham 1-1 Brighton
- 27/11/21: Brighton 0-0 The Leeds United
One draw, one win and four defeats from the previous six makes for pretty ghastly reading for Everton. Toffees fans can hold onto the small crumb of comfort that they did at least win their last outing at Goodison against an improving Arsenal and they held Chelsea 1-1 in their most recent fixture, the same result Brighton achieved against the European Champions four days ago.
- 16/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Everton
- 12/12/21: Crystal Palace 3-1 Everton
- 06/12/21: Everton 2-1 Arsenal
- 01/12/21: Everton 1-4 Liverpool
- 28/11/21: Brentford 1-0 Everton
- 21/11/21: Man City 3-0 Everton
Last time we met
As already touched upon, it was something of a Potter disaster-class at the Amex back in August as he was outsmarted by Rafa the Gaffer.
Benitez pinpointed Potter’s early season use of central midfielders as wing backs, targeting Pascal Gross on the right and Jakub Moder on the left with quick and direct wingers Demari Gray and Andros Townsend.
The result was both Everton goals coming from wide positions in a 2-0 win for the travelling Toffees. Gray gave the visitors a half time lead with Calvert-Lewin notching the second from the spot after Seamus Coleman came charging up the pitch from right back to earn a penalty.
Everton v Brighton head-to-head
Have we mentioned that Brighton have never won at Everton before? Needless to say, that translates into a head-to-head dominated by the Toffees, who have 10 wins from the 20 matches. There have been six draws and four Albion victories, two at the Goldstone Ground and two at the Amex.
A reason why Everton will win
Maybe Goodison is destined to be one of those venues where Brighton never win? The Albion’s recent record there is particularly dire, having lost all four of their Premier League visits since promotion in 2017.
Arguably the only Seagulls supporter to have enjoyed a trip to Goodison this century is the WAB team member who was denied entry for being too drunk in November 2018.
Two bottles of prosecco on the train and six pints in Liverpool saw them turned away at the turnstiles. Whilst 3,000 other Seagulls supporters watched Chris Hughton’s side get dicked 3-1, they got a taxi back into the city centre, ended up having a curry and going on a city centre pub crawl. Miles better than the football that day.
A reason why Brighton will win
Brighton under Potter have been good at ending long historical sequences. Over the past 18 months, the Albion have won at both Preston North End and Aston Villa for the first time in their 121 year existence.
Last season’s 0-0 draw at Chelsea was the first time Brighton had ever avoided defeated away from home against the Blues and Welbeck’s goal at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday was the first time the Albion had scored away at Chelsea.
As the bloke who told me to bet on Oscar Whisky over Big Bucks winning the Cheltenham Stayers’ Hurdle in 2012 minutes before the race went off said, “Oscar Whisky today lad… nothing lasts forever….”
(Narrator: Big Bucks went onto win his fourth Stayers’ Hurdle.)
Everton v Brighton betting
Two teams with two wins between them in three months? If ever a game screamed draw it is this one, with a stalemate available at a best priced 11/5.
Presuming Trossard does not make it, then Alexis Mac Allister is an intriguing price for anytime goal scorer. Not only will the Argentine schemer be deployed behind Maupay if he starts, but he will also presumably be on free kicks.
His 23/4 represents a bigger price to notch than is available for Taylor Richards and Jurgen Locadia. You suspect that Mac Allister is more likely to score than DJ Jurgen, who spent his New Year’s Eve preparing for Everton away by doing a Q&A on Instagram live about how to start a small fashion business.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Everton 1-1 Brighton
Prediction of time of Brighton goal: 90+4′
