Brighton can go far in the FA Cup – if they take West Brom seriously
When they talk about the magic of the FA Cup, they definitely do not mean West Brom v Brighton. The third round draw for this season’s completion has given the Seagulls a fixture which has all the excitement of a holiday to Margate which, coincidentally, is where my missus announced last night that she wants to visit in the February half term.
And whilst nobody can deny how dour a prospect it is (West Brom, not Margate), it does offer Brighton a very winnable tie in a season where they could make waves in the world’s greatest cup competition, providing Graham Potter is willing to take it seriously.
Jurgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel and Ralf Rangnick spent the festive season crying into their Christmas steins of beautiful beer brewed according to the German purity laws of 1516 about fixture congestion.
If managers of the European Super League Elite clubs are that concerned about the workload of their players, then there is a chance they will treat the FA Cup with even more disdain than normal. That can open an opportunity for a less fashionable Premier League side to go all the way to Wembley – like Brighton.
The Albion have shown over the past 18 months that on their day, they can compete with anyone in England. Put five of those days together over the coming months and another FA Cup semi final at Wembley will beckon.
Six days and it is into the final. Seven days and Lewis Dunk is hoisting aloft the first piece of major silverware in Brighton history, if you do not count the Charity Shield of 1910.
With 16 points currently separating the Albion and the relegation zone and only four defeats in the Premier League all season, it would take a major cock up from here for Brighton to go down.
Graham Potter can therefore afford to make the FA Cup a bigger priority than he might if the Seagulls were squabbling around the bottom three.
There has never been a better opportunity to have a real go at winning the world’s greatest cup competition since those heady days of 1983.
So yeah. Take the trip to the Hawthorns seriously please, Graham. And for the love of God avoid a penalty shoot out. Not sure anyone can handle anymore spot kicks at West Brom away after last time…
West Brom this season
The ultimate yo-yo club may continue their normal yo-yoing come the end of the current campaign. West Brom and Norwich City switch divisions with a frequency rarely seen outside of a Dane Hill wife swap evening.
That tradition may well continue this season as the Baggies currently occupy fourth spot in the Championship table following their relegation from the Premier League back in May.
At that point, Big Sam Allardyce decided he would rather spend his time drinking pints of wine in Chinese restaurants than attempting to lead West Brom back to promotion and so his place was taken by Valérien Ismaël, who had been quite the revelation when leading Barnsley into the playoffs last season.
Ismaël is attempting to introduce a new style of play and is doing so with a new look team. There have understandably been speedbumps in the road whilst that is going on, but still the Baggies remain in the promotion picture.
A full strength West Brom would prove tricky opponents for Brighton, especially with the Seagulls having such a dreadful record at the Hawthorns.
Ismaël’s overriding priority this season however is to return the Baggies to the big time. Already denied the spine of his team through suspension and ineligibility for the FA Cup, he may well think sod it and shuffle his pack – giving Brighton another reason to make sure they get the job done.
Team news
West Brom will be without five important players. England international goalkeeper Sam Johnstone was sent off after the final whistle of the Baggies 1-1 draw with Cardiff, following Alex Mowatt into the referee’s bad books who had been red carded during the game. Those two are subsequently suspended.
Matt Clarke and Jayson Molumby meanwhile are not allowed to play against their parent club and so are also unavailable. Both are having decent campaigns at the Hawthorns, Clarke having started 16 matches and Molumby making seven starts and seven further appearances from the bench.
Semi Ajayi is the final key man missing, away at the African Cup of Nations. The Baggies have a burgeoning academy and it is youth who Ismaël is likely to turn to fill the gaps, including highly rated 17-year-old Reyes Cleary, who has been scoring goals for fun for West Brom’s Under 23s.
For Brighton, likely starters are those who sat on the bench at Everton. Jason Steele will get an opportunity to entertain us all again. Shane Duffy, Solly March and Pascal Gross all need minutes, as do Steve Alzate and Danny Welbeck as they step up their returns from injury.
When you reel off names like those as back up players, you realise just how strong this Seagulls squad is. They should have more than enough to beat West Brom.
Key battles
The one area Brighton do look light in is attack. Aaron Connolly has left for Middlesbrough on loan and DJ Jurgen Locadia will be doing his Instagram influencing from Bochum following a permanent move to the Bundesliga club.
Neal Maupay will in all likelihood be rested and it is hard to imagine Leandro Trossard starting, given he is only just coming back from injury.
Brighton will therefore be relying on Welbeck to to get their goals at the Hawthorns. How well he performs up against a makeshift West Brom back three could go a long way to deciding whether the Seagulls move a step closer to Wembley.
Recent form
One win in six for West Brom does not make for pleasant reading. That sole success came against a Reading side reeling from a points deduction.
Three of those matches have been drawn, which marks the Baggies out as being a bit like Brighton – tough to beat but often unable to find a way to win matches.
- 02/01/22: West Brom 1-1 Cardiff
- 27/12/21: Derby County 1-0 West Brom
- 17/12/21: Barnsley 0-0 West Brom
- 11/21/21: West Brom 1-0 Reading
- 04/12/21: Coventry City 1-2 West Brom
- 26/11/21: West Brom 0-0 Nottingham Forest
Seven points over the festive period has transformed the mood amongst Brighton fans after that club-record run of 11 top flight games without a victory.
The Albion were not exactly blessed with an easy fixture list, either. Brentford are the best of the newly promoted sides and Brighton had never scored a league goal away against Chelsea, nor returned from Everton with three points before rewriting the history books.
In their past six matches, Brighton’s only defeat was when a Covid-19 and injury ravaged squad lost 1-0 to Wolves. The Seagulls will arrive at the Hawthorns brimming with confidence.
- 02/01/22: Everton 2-3 Brighton
- 29/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
- 26/12/21: Brighton 2-0 Brentford
- 15/12/21: Brighton 0-1 Wolves
- 04/12/21: Southampton 1-1 Brighton
- 01/12/21: West Ham 1-1 Brighton
Last time we met
Last February’s trip to the Hawthorns is still looked back on with awe and wonder. Did it really happen or was it simply a vision caused by too many magic mushrooms taken to pass the boredom in lockdown?
West Brom were already doomed to relegation despite there still being three months of the campaign to play. Not that facing woeful opposition mattered to the Albion, who managed to miss two penalties in the space of 60 minutes from Gross and Welbeck and saw Connolly put the ball over the bar when five yards away from an open goal.
Then there was also the Lee Mason free kick incident, the referee disallowing, allowing, disallowing, allowing, disallowing, allowing and then finally disallowing Lewis Dunk’s quickly taken free kick.
Before all that free kick and penalty drama, Kyle Bartley had given the Baggies the lead inside of 10 minutes after some typically woeful marking from a set piece and West Brom 1-0 Brighton is ultimately how it finished.
West Brom v Brighton head-to-head
Meetings between Albion and Albion have been few and far between. The clubs did not cross swords until 1976 when Peter Ward went berserk and fired Division Three Brighton to a shock League Cup win at Division One West Brom.
That is one of only two victories the Seagulls have ever recorded at the Hawthorns, a ground where they have never won a league match.
The other success came when Glenn Murray scored with his schlong in an extra time FA Cup fourth round replay in the season Chris Hughton led Brighton to the semi finals of the competition.
Overall, the head-to-head reads six Brighton wins, nine draws and 11 West Brom victories from 26 clashes to date. With no replays in the FA Cup this year, another draw could lead to a penalty shoot out…
A reason why West Brom will win
Potter does not take the game seriously and that translates to the sort of unacceptable, sub-standard display witnessed when a weakened Sheffield Wednesday eliminated the Albion at the Amex two seasons ago. There really is no excuse for Brighton not to be progressing.
A reason why Brighton will win
As mentioned countless times by various writers on these pages this season, Potter is working with the strongest squad Brighton have ever had. It is more than good enough in terms of quality to defeat a Championship side’s second string.
West Brom v Brighton betting
FA Cup betting is always notoriously hard, at least until the teams are announced and you have some idea of who is in the starting XI.
Welbeck at 13/5 to score anytime seems like the safest bet available now. Intriguingly, those odds are bigger than the price for teenage Irish striker Evan Ferguson to notch his first senior goal.
Predictions
Prediction of score: West Brom 0-2 Brighton
Prediction of crowd: Under 10,000
