Brighton can make history against Chelsea… again
If it only seems like yesterday that Brighton faced Chelsea, that is because it was. Kind of. Just 20 days have elapsed since the Albion went to Stamford Bridge and yet here we are, about to face the European Champions in a Premier League game once again.
Such a short space of time has passed that the ground staff at the Bridge are probably still trying to collect all the toys that Thomas Tuchel threw from his pram after Chelsea were outplayed by a #TeamLikeBrighton back on December 29th.
Tuchel blamed fixture congestion, Covid-19, the Premier League, injuries, the Wicked Witch of the West and the fact McDonalds are not currently serving the Big Tasty for his side’s failure to beat the Albion. Anything but admitting that the Seagulls were the better side on the day.
If Brighton play as well against Chelsea again, then there is every chance a first ever league win against the Blues could be on the cards.
That would be another piece of history in a season in which the Albion are becoming rather adept at re-writing the record books.
Chelsea this season
Back in pre-season, many people were predicting a three way battle for the Premier League title between Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.
That did look like it might be on the cards for the first few months of the campaign. City though have since streaked away, showing the sort of relentless consistency that no other side has. At current rate, they are going to win their fourth championship in five years at a canter. Again.
So, what has gone wrong at Chelsea? Nothing really. Their Champions League win back in May created a false impression of how good their side – who also lost the FA Cup final to Leicester City – actually are.
Whilst they might be able to overcome City in one-off matches, they are not on the same level as the Citizens when it comes to winning game after game after game. That is proven by the fact the Blues sit 13 points off the top of the table.
Chelsea will finish in the top four. They will probably win one or maybe even two trophies. Tuchel is too good a manager not to collect some form of silverware. And everyone at the Bridge will be happy with that, right?
Team news
None of those Brighton players who missed the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace are ready to return, meaning that Graham Potter will be without Lewis Dunk, Shane Duffy and Enock Mwepu.
Adam Lallana also looks set to miss out, leaving Potter with a lack of central midfield options which could lead to a Premier League debut for the exciting Moises Caicedo.
There do not appear to be many obvious changes that Potter can make to rest legs made weary from Friday night and with the prospect of a trip to Leicester to come at the weekend.
Tariq Lamptey could be recalled after being judged only fit enough to sit on the bench and Solly March made enough of an impression when introduced to warrant a start, although goodness knows who for as that would necessitate a change in shape.
Chelsea will be without Edouard Mendy, who was outstanding in that draw at the Bridge three weeks ago. Mendy is currently partaking in AFCON.
Andreas Christensen has Covid-19 and Trevoh Chalobah, Ben Chilwell and Reece James are all long-term injury absentees.
Key battles
Romelu Lukaku against Dan Burn is the battle we never knew we needed. Burn pretty much marked the £97 million striker out of the game last time, something which played a massive part in making Chelsea so toothless.
Brighton were also indebted to Yves Bissouma for preventing Mason Mount doing too much scheming. With both Bissouma and Lallana – who did an effective job marking Conor Gallagher out of the game on Friday – both absent, the success of whoever is charged with keeping Mount quiet will determine if Brighton can make history.
Recent form
One defeat in six makes for very pleasant reading for the Albion, for whom that 11 game winless run between September and Boxing Day is quickly becoming a distant memory.
- 14/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
- 08/01/22: West Brom 1-2 Brighton
- 02/01/22: Everton 2-3 Brighton
- 29/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
- 26/12/21: Brighton 2-0 Brentford
- 15/12/21: Brighton 0-1 Wolves
Like Brighton, Chelsea have three wins from their past six matches. All those victories however have come in cup matches, twice over Spurs in the two-legged Carabao Cup semi final and the other over non-league Chesterfield in the FA Cup.
To find the Blues’ last three points, you have to go back to Boxing Day when they won at Aston Villa. Their last eight Premier League matches have yielded only two wins, making this look like a very good time for Brighton to be facing Chelsea.
- 15/01/22: Manchester City 1-0 Chelsea
- 12/01/22: Spurs 0-1 Chelsea
- 08/01/22: Chelsea 5-1 Chesterfield
- 05/01/22: Chelsea 2-0 Spurs
- 02/01/22: Chelsea 2-2 Liverpool
- 29/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
Last time Brighton played Chelsea
Danny Welbeck became the first Brighton player to ever score a league goal away from home against Chelsea with his beautiful stoppage time header from a Marc Cucurella cross.
That earned the Albion a 1-1 draw, cancelling out Lukaku’s first half opener. From Lukaku scoring until the final 10 minutes, the Blues went over an hour without having a single shot on goal as Brighton were totally dominant.
So dominant in fact that a few days later, Lukaku gave a bombshell interview saying he regretted leaving Inter Milan. The side effects of being put in Dan Burn’s pocket in all their glory.
Brighton v Chelsea head-to-head
Although Brighton’s record against Chelsa makes for pretty ghastly reading, it has improved markedly since Potter was appointed Albion boss in the summer of 2019.
Alireza Jahanbakhsh’s famous overhead kick gave the Albion a first ever point against the Blues on New Year’s Day 2020.
A 0-0 away draw last April was the first time the Albion had avoided defeat at the Bridge. And Dat Guy scoring in West London three weeks ago was the first time Brighton had ever scored away against Chelsea in a league game.
The next step to conquer is a first league win over the European Champions. That would improve the current head-to-head, which reads 25 matches, six Brighton wins, three draws and 16 defeats.
Of those Albion successes, five came in wartime football. The only victory Brighton have over Chelsea outside of the unique circumstances of matches played during World War II is a 2-1 FA Cup third round win from 1933, delivered by goals from Tug Wilson and Arthur Attwood.
A reason why Brighton will win
Potter has become rather adept at re-writing the history books as Brighton manager. Bad records set include the longest ever run of home matches without a victory and the longest sequence without a top flight win.
Good records include becoming the first Albion boss to win away at Preston North End, Aston Villa and Everton, and take a point at Chelsea.
There is no reason to think that he cannot add taking a first ever three points from the Blues to that list.
A reason why Chelsea will win
Look through Chelsea’s starting XI for their defeat at Man City on Saturday lunchtime and it almost feels like they were resting players for Brighton.
Mount, Jorginho and Timo Werner all started on the bench. Three of Tuchel’s best players will therefore be refreshed for their trip to the Amex, unlike the Albion who have something of a threadbare squad at the moment, most of whom busted a gut to try and beat the old enemy on Friday night.
Brighton v Chelsea betting
The betting section of our match previews this season have become more predictable than Paul Barber absolving the club of any sort of blame when a fiasco of their making unfolds (more on Spurs FA Cup tickets tomorrow if sober enough after the Chelsea game).
Once again, we will be lumping on the draw currently available at 17/6. With Pascal Gross surely taken off penalties following his Ryan Harley-esque effort against Palace, Leandro Trossard and Alexis Mac Allister both make anytime goal scorer appeal at 49/10 and 15/2 respectively.
There is every chance that Chelsea will concede a spot kick, especially when you recall that the only method the Blues had for stopping Lamptey last time was to kick him to the ground.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 Chelsea
Prediction of Thomas Tuchel throwing his toys out the pram: Yes
