Dead rubber? Brighton beating West Ham could be worth £13.2m

Sod the title and relegation fights, the real excitement on the final day of the Premier League season will be the battle to decide who finishes between 8th and 14th. Or at least it is if you are a Brighton fan ahead of the visit of West Ham.

The upper-middle of the table is more congested than a Boris Johnson bring-your-own-wine lockdown knees up in 10 Downing Street.

Six points separate Wolves in eighth with Aston Villa in 14th and with the Albion slap bang in the middle of that pack, Brighton have seven potential finishing positions they could find themselves in.

Lazy pundits would describe all of those teams as having nothing to play. In the mega rich world of English top flight football, that is simply not the case.

If Brighton were to lose to West Ham and end up in 14th spot come 6pm on Sunday night, they would pocket £15.4 million. Beat the Hammers with other results going the Albion’s way and 8th spot lands a cool £28.6 million.

That £13.2 million difference in prize money could nearly pay for another Marc Cucurella, should it go straight into Graham Potter’s summer transfer budget. A fifth and final home win of the campaign would therefore be very welcome.

West Ham this season
David Moyes continues to work wonders at the London Stadium with West Ham having enjoyed another memorable campaign under the management of a bloke who was mocked when he returned to the club in December 2019.

Having dragged West Ham to Premier League survival by a fine margin at the end of the 2019-20 season, he has now qualified the Irons for Europe in both his full campaigns at the helm.

2021-22 has seen domestic joy through a guaranteed finish of at least 7th. That secures Europa Conference football. If West Ham win against Brighton and Manchester United lose at Crystal Palace, then the Irons leapfrog United into sixth and the final Europa League spot.

West Ham enjoyed a memorable run to the semi finals of that competition this season, the sort of adventure that is the dream of every club whose supporters rarely have cause to whip out their passports.

Away days against Dynamo Zagreb, Genk, Rapid Vienna, Sevilla and Lyon led to a semi final elimination against eventual winners Eintracht Frankfurt.

Who knows, that might be us in a couple of years time if Graham Potter can sort out the Albion’s home form next season.

Team news
Potter had a lot to say in his pre-game press conference and one piece of headline news meant that much of his comments about team selection and availability went under radar.

The Brighton boss casually mentioned that Pascal Gross is close to agreeing a new Albion contract, contradicting reports from Germany saying he was heading to Werder Bremen on a free.

Whilst Albion fans everywhere nibbled on a frankfurter and cracked open a weissbier to celebrate, Potter also said that Enock Mwepu had returned from injury early and could feature from the bench.

In terms of starting XI, Potter surely has to stick with the same side who delivered that 4-0 win over Manchester United last time at the Amex.

Not only did they demolish the most famous club in the land, but they racked up a quarter of the season’s home goals total of 16 in one afternoon as well as delivering only a fourth Amex win of the campaign.

Such consistency is unlike Potter but would be good news for anyone on the Fanhub app who fancies winning a free pint for successfully predicting the Brighton team. What an addition Fanhub has proven to be to the footballing experience this season.

West Ham forward Said Benrahma is expected to be fit, unlike Issa Diop and Angelo Ogbonna who are both likely to miss the game.

Key battles
A major reason for West Ham being so successful along with the inspired appointment of Moyes has been the emergence of Declan Rice as one of the best midfielders in the world.

The Hammers captain can expect to be the subject of intense transfer speculation this summer, making his clash in the middle of the park with Yves Bissouma even more fascinating.

Both players seem destined to go onto play for one of Europe’s giants and Rice’s future could be intertwined with what happens to Bissouma.

If West Ham slap a £150 million asking price on Rice, then that may be enough to dissuade potential suitors and send them looking for a cheaper alternative – like a Malian entering the final year of his contract.

Rice being priced out of the market will leave more clubs interested in Bissouma, sparking the sort of bidding war Brighton need to maximise the fee they receive for his services.

So on behalf of Tony Bloom and Albion fans everywhere, please feel free to put as astronomical a number as possible on Rice’s head, West Ham.

Recent form
Brighton have enjoyed a barnstorming run of results over the final six weeks of the season. Before winning 2-1 at Arsenal, the campaign appeared to be petering out into nothingness but four wins, two draws and one defeat from seven matches puts the Albion in with a shot of that eighth placed finish.

Danny Welbeck said after scoring at 1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up The Leeds United that he did not want the campaign to end because of his recent form. Neither do the Albion

• 15/05/22: The Leeds United 1-1 Brighton
• 07/05/22: Brighton 4-0 Manchester United
• 30/04/22: Wolves 0-3 Brighton
• 24/04/22: Brighton 2-2 Southampton
• 20/04/22: Man City 3-0 Brighton
• 16/04/22: Spurs 0-1 Brighton

West Ham in contrast have gone off the boil in the last month as a long, hard season fighting on four fronts catches up with them.

Four defeats in a row were ended by a 4-0 win at already relegated Norwich whilst the emotion of Mark Noble making his final home appearance for the Hammers helped earn them a draw against Manchester City.

• 15/05/22: West Ham 2-2 Man City
• 08/05/22: Norwich 0-4 West Ham
• 05/05/22: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 West Ham
• 01/05/22: West Ham 1-2 Arsenal
• 28/04/22: West Ham 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
• 24/04/22: Chelsea 1-0 West Ham

Last time Brighton played West Ham
Christmas came 24 days early at the London Stadium courtesy of Neal Maupay. West Ham were heading towards a 1-0 victory thanks to the lead given to them after only five minutes by Tomas Soucek, combined with injuries to Jeremy Sarmiento, Adam Lallana and Adam Webster which left Brighton finishing the game with only 10 men.

Maupay though proved the Albion’s saviour. Tariq Lamptey hung a cross into the box, Maupay threw himself into the air, contorted his body into a unnatural shape and crashed an unstoppable bicycle kick past Lukasz Fabianski.

Cue absolute bedlam in the away end and Maupay celebrating his late equaliser through a haze of blue smoke. La Petite Shithouse Française would go onto repeat the trick three days later with an even later leveller to earn a 1-1 draw at Southampton.

Brighton v West Ham head-to-head
Avoiding defeat on that glorious night in East London extended Brighton’s unbeaten record against West Ham since winning promotion to nine games. The Irons have been unable to beat Brighton for love nor money over the past five years.

That is in stark contrast to what happened in the fixture in the preceding century. Albion victories over West Ham were rarer than hens teeth, especially at Upton Park where Brighton only won once in the Football League – that ridiculous 1-0 victory when the Irons had 172 shots and Guy Butters one header on target.

Those results between 1903 and 2017 leave West Ham still comfortably leading the head-to-head. The Hammers have 30 wins from 70 meetings compared to Brighton’s 17. 23 matches have been drawn, including the last six in a row.

A reason why Brighton will win
Benjamin Franklin once said nothing is certain in life except death, taxes and West Ham not beating Brighton. The Albion might not win, but recent history suggests they are not going to lose.

A reason why West Ham will win
Nothing lasts forever, not even the Roman empire. And would it not be typical for Brighton to finally lose to West Ham on the occasion that the Albion could earn rare bragging rights over Palace by finishing above the Eagles in the table? Not to mention swelling the coffers.

Betting
Draw. Draw. Draw. 13/5 for the game to finish level as a licence to print money.

Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 West Ham
Prediction of Albion finishing position: 10th