A 3pm kick off on a Saturday? What is this Brighton v Burnley madness?
Hands up if you had almost forgotten that football at the Amex could take place at 3pm on a Saturday until Brighton v Burnley came along?
For the first time in six months, the Albion play a home game at the traditional time. It is on paper one of their most winnable of the season too, against a Clarets side who have just one victory to their name all season and only 14 points on the board.
We can probably all see what happens here…
Burnley this season
It is not going particularly well for Sean Dyche and his players. Whilst Burnley have a habit of starting slowly but then always having enough in the tank to escape the clutches of relegation, this season looks like it could be different as they remain bottom of the pile past the halfway point in the campaign.
Yes, they have played fewer games than anyone else with only 21 matches completed. But that solitary win does not bode well.
Too many games have ended in draws – 11 to be precise – and the Clarets were forced into selling their best striker Chris Wood when Newcastle met his release clause in January.
If Burnley can turn some of those draws into wins over their remaining 17 matches, then they could yet escape the mire.
That looks a tall order however, especially with Norwich City under Dean Smith showing signs of improving and the Saudi Sportwashers spending more blood money than anyone else in Europe during the transfer window.
Team news
The controversial sending off of Lewis Dunk in Manchester United 2-0 Brighton means that the Albion will be without their captain for the visit of Burnley.
There was also the intriguing development on Friday night of somebody using Yves Bissouma’s social media profiles revealing their location to be Lille, France.
If this was the Malian midfielder himself enjoying himself in France less than 24 hours before kick off, then he is surely not going to be involved.
I speak with a degree of experience on this matter. The day before the infamous defeat to Millwall in December 2014 when Brighton fans finally turned on Sami Hyypia, I had been in Lille to watch their Europa League game against Wolfsburg.
The entire Eurostar journey home was spent being violently sick after one too many mind bending strong beers owing to Lille’s proximity to the Belgian border.
Should Bissouma find himself anywhere near the levels of hangover that were present on that journey home, then he is in big trouble.
As for Burnley, they signed the wonderfully named Wout Weghorst to replace Wood but he is an injury doubt with a hip problem.
Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Charlie Taylor are both likely to miss out. Dale Stephens is however available to make his first appearance against the Albion since leaving the Amex, having been sat in the away end supporting Brighton at Old Trafford on Tuesday night. What a man.
Key battles
The area that decides Brighton v Burnley is likely to be set pieces. The Clarets pose a real threat from corners and free kicks, as the Albion found out first hand when conceding from such an instance within 180 seconds of the 2021-22 season kicking off at Turf Moor.
Brighton are not particularly good at defending set pieces, which is why most would see Shane Duffy coming in for Dunk as an eminently sensible decision to deal with the aerial threat posed by Burnley.
Counter to this, the Albion have become rather adept at scoring goals from their own corners in recent weeks. After four seasons in which Pascal Gross was the only player who could beat the first man, Alexis Mac Allister has suddenly burst onto the scene as a bloke capable of delivering a wicked ball into the box.
Adam Webster has been the main profiteer from this. Duffy is equally adept at getting on the end of corners and free kicks, and should he start he will cause problems to Burnley.
Recent form
Defeat at United was the first Premier League game Brighton had lost since the disappointing mid-December reversal at the hands of Wolves.
That it took an individual mistake from Bissouma and a terrible piece of refereeing from Peter Bankes to send the Albion home from Old Trafford with nothing to show for their efforts means we can disregard the loss.
Brighton are therefore in excellent form and have every right to come into the Burnley game expecting to win. Best get that draft tweet about Typical Brighton ready…
- 15/02/22: Man United 2-0 Brighton
- 12/02/22: Watford 0-2 Brighton
- 05/02/22: Spurs 3-1 Brighton
- 26/01/22: Leicester 1-1 Brighton
- 18/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Chelsea
- 14/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
Burnley’s solitary Premier League victory came on Saturday 30th October against Brentford. Since then, they have drawn seven and lost four.
Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have all failed to beat Burnley in that run. It is a record which suggests the Clarets lack the quality to win games, but are tough to beat.
- 13/02/22: Burnley 0-1 Liverpool
- 08/02/22: Burnley 1-1 Man United
- 05/02/22: Burnley 0-0 Watford
- 23/01/22: Arsenal 0-0 Burnley
- 08/01/22: Brighton 1-2 Huddersfield
- 02/01/22: The Leeds United 3-1 Burnley
Last time Brighton played Burnley
It was a Potter disasterclass followed by a masterclass at Turf Moor on the opening day of the campaign. Having named a frankly ridiculous team including Pascal Gross at left back, Adam Webster at right back and Steve Alzate as a holding midfielder, the Albion found themselves 1-0 down at half time.
Potter sobered up during the break and made a number of sensible changes. The result was a second half far removed from the shambles of the first, culminating in late goals for Neal Maupay and Alexis Mac Allister as Brighton ended up winning 2-1.
Brighton v Burnley head-to-head
Burnley have become one of the Albion’s most frequent opponents over the past decade but meetings between the clubs were few and far between prior to the 21st century.
The Clarets suffered the lowest period in their history – including a last day escape from relegation into the Conference – at the same time as Brighton climbed into the top flight during the late 1970s and early 1980s.
There have been 37 meetings to date. Brighton have won 12 and Burnley 11, leaving the draw as the most common result. 15 matches have ended level.
A reason why Brighton will win
Any club who has genuine designs on qualifying for Europe has to beat the team bottom of the table with only one win to their name at home.
It is that simple. Except, it never is that simple when the Albion are involved, is it…
A reason why Burnley will win
Stephens is nailed on to score the winner, just to upset all those Brighton fans who bizarrely never rated him. And if he does not do it for Burnley, then it will probably be a certain Ashley Barnes…
Brighton v Burnley betting
Right. We have a Brighton side who have drawn 12 Premier League games this season. A Burnley side who have drawn 11. And the most frequent result in this fixture is a draw. Get your mortgage on a stalemate, available across the board at 14/5.
As already noted, set pieces are likely to be big in this one. Webster is 11/1 to score anytime and if Duffy is in the starting XI when the teams are announced, the Big Irishman might be worth a few quid at 17/2.
Finally, if you think Brighton v Burnley is the day when Jakub Moder finally breaks his Premier League duck then you can have him at 15/2.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 Burnley
Prediction of whether the promised WAB Video Content gets filmed: Low
Prediction of Sean Dyche’s voice: Will sound like he has swallowed a ton of gravel
