A home goal would be nice for Brighton against Southampton

Tuesday January 18th is a date everyone should remember. No, it is not Valentine’s Day, your wife’s birthday or the Queen’s jubilee, but it was the last time that the Albion scored a home goal. Brighton will be hoping to put that right against Southampton.

96 days have passed since Adam Webster crashed in a header as the Albion held European Champions Chelsea to a 1-1 draw. More than three long months.

Since then, Burnley, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Spurs and Norwich have all kept clean sheets in Sussex. The Albion’s woefulness in front of goal at home even led Graham Potter to say the players found it challenging when home fans shout “SHOOT”. Best remember not to do that against the Saints, then…

Instead, why not pop into church this morning if you have 10 minutes spare and pray for Brighton to score at the Amex?

Given how long it has been since the men in blue and white managed the feat, we are getting to the stage whereby divine intervention is almost certainly going to be required to end this barren run.

Southampton this season
Southampton have enjoyed a typical Southampton season. Not good enough to challenge for the top seven and yet too good to have to worry seriously about relegation.

They have trotted along mixing impressive results like victories over Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham with defeats to Burnley, Watford and Norwich City.

That gives them nothing to play for other than trying to finish as high in mid table as possible. Brighton do at least have the carrot of a record Premier League points tally and highest ever league placing dangled in front of them, but otherwise the 100th meeting between Albion and Saints is about as meaningless a top flight fixture as you will find.

Team news
Adam Webster put 30 minutes under his belt in the 3-0 defeat to Manchester City on Wednesday night. Graham Potter is carefully upping his game time with each passing week and so we might see Webster play for 45 against the Southampton.

Yves Bissouma serves the second game of his suspension but Leandro Trossard has recovered from illness. Trossard seems certain to come back into the starting XI, having scored in his two most recent starts from a new position out on the left.

The Saints have no new injury concerns to worry about. Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy is closing in on a return after five months out injured, although the trip to the Amex is likely to come too soon for him.

Ralph Hasenhuttl will surely make changes after his side were done and dusted before half time when losing 2-0 at Burnley on Thursday night.

Key battles
Since Potter was appointed Brighton manager in the summer of 2019, the Albion have conceded some spectacularly shit goals thanks to terrible defending of set pieces.

Southampton possess within their ranks probably the finest dead ball expert since Sky Sports invented football in 1992.

No, David Beckham has not ceased marrying his son off to fit American actresses to come out of retirement. We are of course talking about James Ward-Prowse.

To stand a chance of taking something from the Saints, Brighton will need to cope with whatever Ward-Prowse can throw at them from corners and free kicks.

Let us hope that Potter has been working on defending set pieces on the training ground over the past few days, rather than just passing the ball sideways as seems to be a requirement before every home game.

Recent form
Are you even a Brighton fan if you are not expecting defeat at home to Southampton? Having ended a barren run of six defeats and one draw in seven games with back-to-back victories away at Arsenal and Spurs, it seems absolutely certain that the Saints will win 1-0 at the Amex.

Followed of course by the Albion taking three points from 1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up The Leeds United next week.

• 20/04/22: Man City 3-0 Brighton
• 16/04/22: Spurs 0-1 Brighton
• 09/04/22: Arsenal 1-2 Brighton
• 02/04/22: Brighton 0-0 Norwich
• 16/03/22: Brighton 0-2 Spurs
• 12/03/22: Brighton 0-2 Liverpool

It is quite comforting to know that Brighton are not the only club who can veer from the sublime to the ridiculous in double-quick time.

Southampton’s recent results are almost as bizarre as the Seagulls’. A home loss to Watford followed by a good point at Leeds followed by shipping six to Chelsea followed by beating Arsenal followed by losing at Burnley.

Defeat at Turf Moor is of course another reason why the Saints will probably come away from the Amex with something. How else can they follow up losing against relegation threatened, managerless opponents than by winning three days later?

• 21/04/22: Burnley 2-0 Southampton
• 16/04/22: Southampton 1-0 Arsenal
• 09/04/22: Southampton 0-6 Chelsea
• 02/04/22: Leeds 1-1 Southampton
• 20/03/22: Southampton 1-4 Man City
• 13/03/22: Southampton 1-2 Watford

Last time Brighton played Southampton
Neal Maupay was going through that phase of scoring last minute equalisers when Brighton went to St Mary’s in December. His 98th minute strike against Southampton was a goal of the highest class and earned a 1-1 draw.

Maupay cleverly stole a yard as a Saints player dropped back to cover the post from a Jakub Moder free kick. Moder crashed his effort into the wall, but returned the rebound into the box where Maupay was now perfectly placed to crash a first time volley into the back of the net. Cue bedlam in the away end.

Remarkably, Brighton rescued their point despite finishing with 10 men. Trossard had been stretchered off after Potter used all three of his substitutes. Armando Broja had given Southampton a first half lead with a well taken goal.

Brighton v Southampton head-to-head
This will be the 100th meeting between Brighton and Southampton, stretching all the way back to 1902. The sides have met in 11 different competitions in a fixture which has been dominated by the Saints.

Southampton have 44 wins compared to 29 for the Albion with 26 draws. To make you even more confident, Brighton have an appalling Premier League record against the Saints, winning only one out of nine since promotion in 2017.

Throw in a Southampton victory in the League Cup a couple of seasons ago and it is one victory in 10 for Brighton against the Saints.

The Albion’s home record against Southampton does not make for great reading, either. In 18 matches stretching back to February 23rd 1957, Brighton have won only twice.

Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named oversaw a memorable 3-0 win at the Amex in January 2012, all the goals coming from Matt Sparrow and Jake Forster-Caskey in what appeared for 90 minutes at least to be the best midfield partnership in the world.

Brighton’s only other home win against Southampton in 65 years saw Gary Williams and Giles Stille score in a 2-0 victory at the Goldstone in the 1980-81 campaign.

A reason why Brighton will win
They have to win – or at least score a goal – for the sake of the sanity of 25,000 season ticket holders.

A reason why Southampton will win
For reasons unknown, the Saints just seem to have Brighton’s number. The Albion’s terrible home record against them, the nearly-as-bad Premier League head-to-head… it is all quite grim.

Brighton v Southampton betting
No surprise where the WAB money is going for this one. The draw is available at 5/2 and seeing as that outcome has proven an absolute goldmine this season, there seems little reason to abandon it when home form is so ghastly and the Albion average a win over Southampton once a decade.

Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 0-0 Southampton.
Prediction of number of times the game gets called a ‘South Coast Derby’ despite the cities being over 60 miles apart: 207 times.
Prediction of minute some comedian in the crowd shouts SHOOT: Fifth minute.