A sterner test lies in store for Brighton against Everton
Brighton will face the sternest test so far of their Premier League title credentials as matchday three brings Rafa Benitez and Everton to the Amex.
Graham Potter has so far masterminded victories over Burnley and Watford, two sides who could well end the season heading into the Championship.
A meeting with a Toffees outfit who possess a squad and manager good enough to challenge for the top six is an altogether different prospect.
The good news of course is that the Albion have tended to play better against better teams in the Potter Era so far. It has been the likes of the Clarets and the Hornets who Brighton have struggled to break down, which is why victories over two potential strugglers has been seen as such a welcome sign.
If Brighton can combine their new-found ability to see off clubs around them in the bottom half of the table with their previous liking for saving their best performances for those pushing towards the top, then this could end up being a very special year indeed.
What happens against Everton will therefore be telling. And if that is not a reason to be excited, then I do not know what is.
Everton this season
Everton were rocked in the summer when Carlo Ancelotti abandoned ship on the long-term project to turn the club into top four regulars when Real Madrid offered him the chance to return to the Bernabeu. Gone was a genuinely world class manager from Goodison Park who at one point in 2020-21 had Everton sitting top of the table.
Appointing Benitez in his place unsurprisingly proved to be a highly controversial move, what with Rafa the Gaffer’s links to Liverpool and everything.
So much so that some particularly nasty Everton fans left a banner saying “We know where you live… don’t sign” outside of Benitez’s house prior to him accepting the job.
This threatening message scrawled on their mother’s bedsheets might have carried more weight had it not turned out that it was actually hung up outside the wrong house, proving that they did not in fact know where Benitez lived.
File that one as a very underrated entry in the contest for Worst Protest in the World 2021, alongside the anti-lockdown march on the day lockdown ended and anti-vax protesters storming a BBC building which the BBC left eight years earlier and is now a block of flats.
Benitez of course has been here before. Chelsea fans went apoplectic with rage when Roman paid Rafa many roubles to take over as interim Blues head boss following the sacking of Roberto Di Matteo.
Despite the hostility, Benitez led Chelsea to automatic Champions League qualification via a third placed finish and won the Europa League.
By the time he left Stamford Bridge come the end of the season, Blues supporters admitted they had got it wrong and gave him a decent ovation following his final game in charge, even though Rafa shunned a lap of honour.
There is no reason to think he cannot do the same at Goodison and win Evertonians around. The Toffees are unbeaten so far, defeating Southampton 3-1 and drawing 2-2 with The Leeds United in the Premier League.
They also made good progress in the League Cup in midweek via a 2-1 win away at Huddersfield Town with a much-changed team, highlighting the strength in depth they have available.
Team news
The big question mark over selection from a Brighton point of view ahead of the Everton game focusses on Neal Maupay who left the 2-0 win over Watford at half time after landing awkwardly on his shoulder.
Potter has said that Maupay might be fit for the visit of Everton, but then again he said Adam Webster would be out for a few days last season and neither hide nor hair was seen of him for the next eight weeks.
Given the Albion’s record at overestimating how quickly players will be returning from injury, maybe we should ready ourselves to see Maupay just before Christmas… 2022.
If Maupay does not make it, then Aaron Connolly will receive opportunity number 737 at redemption by leading the line. Danny Welbeck has also been given an outside chance of making the bench by Potter (so expect to see him return at Easter) whilst Andi Zeqiri has surely put himself into contention too with a goal at Cardiff City on Tuesday night.
Otherwise, it is hard to see how or why Potter would want to change the starting XI that did so well against Watford. He has already been given a sharp reminder about what happens when you experiment in the Premier League (hello Pascal Gross at left back) and knows that the much-improved second half of last season came about thanks to some long-awaited consistency in selection. Stick with what works and see how far it takes us in the title race.
As for Everton, Moise Kean is suspended after being sent off at the McAlpine Galpham John Smith’s Whatever Huddersfield’s Stadium is now called on Tuesday.
Fabian Delph has a shoulder problem and faces a late fitness test and Alex Iwobi is rated 50-50 because of an abductor issue (that is a muscle as opposed to him having been abducted).
Key battles
One of the more pleasant surprises about the Albion’s 100 percent start so far has been how clinical they have looked in front of goal.
Presuming Maupay’s minor shoulder problem is ruling him out until some point in the middle of the decade, then whether Brighton can make it three wins from three will come down to finding a way to beat Everton and England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford without the services of a striker who has been in such impressive form.
Pickford was one of the success stories of England’s run to the final of Euro 2020 (in 2021). He conceded only two goals in the tournament, made a succession of brilliant saves throughout and his angry reactions anytime he was called into action were an absolute joy to watch.
If Connolly leads the line, will he be able to find a way past Pickford? The Irish striker could not even hit the target from 12 yards out when completely free, slap-bang in the middle of the Watford penalty area last week.
Brighton may therefore have to look elsewhere for their goals. Intriguingly, one of the three goals Pickford has conceded for England in 2021 came from the boot of an Albion player, Jakub Moder giving Poland the lead at Wembley in a World Cup qualifier in March.
Moder will likely have to settle for a place on the bench against Everton, but Brighton picking up win number three could well hinge on whether any Albion midfielders can find a way past Pickford.
At the other end, we do not want to dampen down the excitement surrounding the renaissance of Shane Duffy but he has so far faced a Watford attack who looked as threatening as a piece of unsmoked salmon and Burnley’s Chris Wood, who was clearly struggling after his Olympics exertions.
Marking Dominic Calver-Lewin will give us a far greater idea of how big a turnaround Duffy is enjoying and whether he can continue to contribute against the better strikers in the Premier League, especially with Joel Veltman close to a return. Hopefully, King Shane passes the DCL test with flying colours.
Recent form
Until last weekend, Brighton had never started a top flight season with two victories in a row, so history had already been made in that regard.
You have to go back to 2011-12 to find the last time that the Albion kicked off with three successive wins, delivered by Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named over Doncaster Rovers, Portsmouth and Cardiff.
- 24/08/21: Cardiff City 0-2 Brighton
- 21/08/21: Brighton 2-0 Watford
- 14/08/21: Burnley 1-2 Brighton
- 23/05/21: Arsenal 2-0 Brighton
- 18/05/21: Brighton 3-2 Manchester City
- 15/05/21: Brighton 1-1 West Ham
As already noted, Benitez is yet to taste defeat as Everton manager. That is in stark contrast to how the Toffees ended the previous season under Ancelotti.
Once it became clear they were not qualifying for Europe, their foot came off the gas which led to a hammering at Manchester City and a shock 1-0 home defeat to Sheffield United.
Given that Brighton gave the Blades four of the very few points they won in 2020-21, it is always reassuring to see another club who conspired to not defeat one of the worst teams the Premier League have seen.
- 24/08/21: Huddersfield Town 1-2 Everton
- 21/08/21: The Leeds United 2-2 Everton
- 14/08/21: Everton 3-1 Southampton
- 23/05/21: Manchester City 5-0 Everton
- 19/05/21: Everton 1-0 Wolves
- 16/05/21: Everton 0-1 Sheffield United
Last time we met
Such a memorable game that I had to look it up and even then I could not remember anything about it. A 0-0 draw on a Monday night at the Amex back in April, apparently?
Brighton v Everton head-to-head
Everton are the club who have spent more time in England’s top flight than any other, meaning that games with Brighton have been few and far between.
There have been just 19 meetings over the past 120 years. Everton lead the way with nine victories to the Albion’s four, leaving six draws.
The good news is that this match is not taking place at Goodison Park, where Brighton have never won. All four of the Seagulls’ successes have come in Sussex.
In the Premier League, there was a thrilling 3-2 win in October 2019 with a helping hand from VAR and a 1-0 success in December 2018 delivered by a Christmas miracle of Jurgen Locadia scoring a goal. Brighton’s sole win over Everton in the Albion’s first spell in the top flight was a 3-1 victory in February 1982.
The other victory remains one of the biggest FA Cup upsets the Albion have ever pulled off. Tommy Cook scored a hat-trick as Division Three South Brighton hammered top flight Everton 5-2 at the Goldstone Ground in the 1923-24 season to send “shockwaves around the country”.
A reason why Brighton will win
Because the Albion are going to win the Premier League this season, obviously. Oh, and Benitez has not tasted victory against Brighton since his Newcastle United side pipped us to the Championship title in 2016-17.
A reason why Everton will win
If Maupay misses out, then his absence will be a bigger blow than a lot of people realise. Not just because the only alternative is Connolly, but because of how important his work rate and his ability to link play is. Without him, Brighton will appear a very different beast.
Brighton v Everton betting
Whenever a game looks too close to call, betting on the draw is often the safest option. 23/10 seems like a very generous price for that to be the outcome.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 Everton
Prediction of xG score: Brighton 4.3 – 0.7 Everton
Prediction of first Connolly miss: 12 minutes
