Are you a Brighton fan if you are not expecting to lose to Norwich?
On paper, Norwich City away looks to be the easiest game that Brighton & Hove Albion will have played so far in the 2021-22 Premier League season.
The Seagulls are flying high in sixth, only two points off top spot. Norwich meanwhile are rock bottom with one point from seven matches and having scored only two goals.
Early days it may be, but the Canaries already looked doomed to an instant return to the Championship. The ultimate yo-yo club doing continuing their yo-yoing between top flight and second tier.
But Brighton fans know better than most that football is not played on paper. When you expect the Albion to win matches, they lose. When you expect them to lose matches, they win.
Are you even a Seagulls supporter if you are not expecting defeat at Carrow Road to be followed by victories over Manchester City and Liverpool? It is the Brighton way.
Norwich City this season
Unfortunately, Norwich’s trials and tribulations so far were sadly predictable. The Canaries possess a squad too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Premier League.
That feeds into a cycle more repetitive than the schedule on Dave. They win the Championship title at a canter but rather than attempt to stay in the Premier League, are frugal spenders and instead pocket all the broadcast money for the financial security of the club.
Once they are inevitably relegated, they keep together the majority of their squad who have already proven themselves by winning the second tier title two seasons ago and they go onto repeat the trick.
This summer, Daniel Farke spent £35 million on new additions. For some context, the Albion spent over £50 million in the summer of 2017 and then over £60 million in both 2018 and 2019 – and that was with the mere intention of surviving.
It is little wonder then that Norwich are odds-on to be relegated come May. You can also be fairly certain that most betting apps will then include them as favourites to win promotion from the Championship in 2022-23.
Team news
Graham Potter confirmed in his pre-Norwich press conference that Danny Welbeck has undergone hamstring surgery, so it is just as well Brighton did not sell and loan out a total of five strikers in the summer without bringing anyone new into the squad.
Whilst Potter put no timeframe on when Welbeck might return, he did confirm that Steve Alzate will be out for several months. Alzate also went under the knife during the international break on the ankle injury he received in the 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace.
Given how good the Brighton performance was in the 0-0 draw against Arsenal, it is hard to see why Potter would want to make any changes. Which probably means half the starting XI from the Gunners game will be dropped and Jason Steele starting at left wing back.
Key battles
Most of the football world is probably blissfully unaware that Tim Krul spent a season as a Brighton player. He did a very underrated job during that year at the Amex, putting in some decent FA Cup and League Cup performances.
Most importantly, Krul gave Maty Ryan genuine competition for the number one shirt which led Ryan to have arguably his best season for the Albion.
Brighton could find no way past Aaron Ramsdale last time out despite having over 20 shots at the Arsenal goal. They will need to do better against the Canaries.
Leandro Trossard and Neal Maupay can expect to have plenty of opportunities as Norwich possess one of the leakiest defences in the Premier League both in terms of goals and chances conceded.
How the Vampire of Genk and Monsieur Maupay get on against Krul will go a long way towards deciding the outcome at Carrow Road.
Recent form
The contrasting form that both sides are in provides another reason why it seems utterly inevitable that the Albion will lose.
Brighton have lost once in their past six matches, a 2-0 defeat against Everton when Potter learnt an important lesson about using central midfielders as wing backs against two out-and-out wide men.
Most notably, the Albion are unbeaten on the road so far this season – and not from an easy set of fixtures either.
Burnley away is always a tough place to go and with each passing week when Brentford pick up more points, the Seagulls’ three points at the Bees’ new Community Stadium looks better and better.
- 02/10/21: Brighton 0-0 Arsenal
- 27/09/21: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton
- 22/09/21: Brighton 2-0 Swansea City
- 19/09/21: Brighton 2-1 Leicester City
- 11/09/21: Brentford 0-1 Brighton
- 28/08/21: Brighton 0-2 Everton
And then we come to Norwich. No wins in six, only two goals scored and crucially, a failure to beat relegation rivals Burnley and Watford.
They are yet to pick up a point at Carrow Road so far. Brighton of course have a long and glorious history of being the club whom such barren home sequences are ended against, including when losing twice at West Brom in the past four seasons for the Baggies to end winless runs of six months.
Jot that down as another reason to side against the Albion at Carrow Road.
- 02/10/21: Burnley 0-0 Norwich
- 25/09/21: Everton 2-0 Norwich
- 21/09/21: Norwich 0-3 Liverpool
- 18/09/21: Norwich 1-3 Watford
- 11/09/21: Arsenal 1-0 Norwich
- 28/08/21: Norwich 1-2 Leicester
Last time we met
It was July 2020 and Norwich already looked doomed to their annual relegation. Brighton were on the periphery of the battle to avoid the Championship and arrived in Norfolk knowing that three points would pretty much guarantee survival.
The Albion got the job done as it finished Norwich 0-1 Brighton. Trossard scored the only goal midway through the first half after a delightful passing move involving Maupay and the shiny head of Aaron Mooy.
Cue a million Brighton fans in the Twitter mentions of Jake Humphrey quoting lines about home grown talents and expansive football…
Norwich City v Brighton head-to-head
Norwich and Brighton were regular opponents during the 1920s and 1930s in Division Three South, meaning there have been 92 meetings between the clubs. The head-to-head is pretty even, the Albion winning 31 times compared to Norwich’s 33 with 24 draws.
With so many matches taking place prior to 1935, Brighton were lucky enough to visit the Canaries’ former home of the Nest on a frequent basis.
The stadium was built into a giant chalk pit and a quick Google image search reveals how utterly incredible it was, with stands propped up against rock faces.
Sadly, the FA deemed the Nest unsafe when a corner of the pitch collapsed due to subsidence. The governing body forced Norwich to close it with Carrow Road being built as a replacement in just 82 days.
It was described as “the largest construction job in the city since the building of Norwich Castle”, although the redevelopment of the Linton Travel Tavern and the pedestrianisation of Norwich High Street have since proved worthy rivals to that title.
A reason why Norwich City will win
Oh, come on. It is obvious, isn’t it…
A reason why Brighton will win
Maybe, just maybe, this Brighton side are made of sterner stuff than previous incarnations. We were all expecting an inevitable defeat at Crystal Palace on a day when the Albion could have gone top of the Premier League.
Brighton did save their worst display of the season so far for the game against their arch rivals, but they also managed to avoid losing as it finished Palace 1-1 Brighton thanks to Maupay’s late leveller.
Norwich City v Brighton betting
Trossard gave two of his best performances of the 2019-20 season against Norwich and with Welbeck injured, he is certain to partner Maupay in attack.
All of which makes it remarkable that he is below Aaron Connolly, Jurgen Locadia, Jeremy Sarmiento and Taylor Richards in the anytime goal scorer market. 9/2 is an excellent price for a striker up against opponents bottom of the league.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Norwich City 0-1 Brighton
Prediction of xG: Norwich City 0.02 – 9.12 Brighton
