Biggest shock of a surprising 11 days the prize for Brighton at Man City

Arsenal have been shocked. Spurs have been shocked. And now Brighton go to champions Man City, looking to cause what would be the biggest shock of a surprising 11 days by getting a result from Abu Dhabi’s great sportswashing project.

City have to win league titles and trophies for their mega-rich owners, so that the rest of the world might associate Abu Dhabi with a successful football club rather than modern day slavery, human rights abuses, no freedom of the press, homosexuality being illegal, etc…

A good display at the Etihad Stadium could see Brighton put a serious dent in City’s bid to retain their Premier League crown.

It would almost certainly spark another fantastic Pep Guardiola meltdown, similar to the one we saw at the Amex last season when he refused to shake Graham Potter’s hand.

Potter’s crime? Having the nerve to celebrate Brighton coming from 2-0 behind to beat the champions 3-2. Repeat scenes of Guardiola tearing his hair out would be very welcome.

Manchester City this season
City may well have the most expensively assembled squad in world football – even if Guardiola complained that they could “only” spend £100 million on Jack Grealish last summer – but they are somehow in danger of ending the season without any silverware.

They failed to defend their Carabao Cup crown. Whilst Brighton were winning 1-0 at Spurs on Saturday, City lost in the semi finals of the FA Cup in an enthralling tie against Liverpool.

Jurgen Klopp’s Reds now occupy first place in the table, a remarkable turnaround when most people assumed the title race was over in January because of the sizable lead the Citizens had built up.

And the one trophy City are yet to win in their sportswashing era may elude them once again. If they can get past Real Madrid in the last four of the Champions League, another date with Liverpool could lie in store in the final.

The idea of City with all their wealth and their need to win trophies ending the season with nothing is frankly hilarious.

Team news
Potter will be without Yves Bissouma, who is suspended for two matches after accumulating 10 yellow cards. A couple of weeks ago, the absence of Bissouma would not have been considered a disaster as he was out-of-form ahead of a certain summer sale.

The midfielder though was superb in the wins at Arsenal and Spurs. His return to his very best was a major reason why the Albion were victorious in both their trips to North London and his unavailability will be a major blow.

To balance things out slightly, City might be without two of their key players. Kevin de Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan missed the FA Cup defeat to Liverpool injured and will be assessed ahead of the Albion’s visit.

Kyle Walker is definitely out due to an ankle injury. The England right back therefore cannot headbutt a Brighton player and get away with it, as he scandalously did to Prince Alireza Jahanbakhsh at Wembley three years ago.

Key battles
One Man City player who absolutely loves playing Brighton is Phil Foden. Stockport’s most famous son has four career goals against the Albion, more than any other opponent he has faced in his career so far.

If Brighton are to surprise the Citizens, then finding a way to keep Foden quiet will be vital. Lewis Dunk, Joel Veltman and Marc Cucurella did an excellent job in foiling Harry Kane and Son Heung-min at the weekend, so it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they can prevent Foden enjoying his normal feast whenever he faces the Seagulls.

Recent form
City have not won for three matches now. Liverpool claimed a point from the Etihad when the sides met in the Premier League a week prior to their FA Cup semi final.

Sandwiched between those two games as a 0-0 draw away at Atletico Madrid. The stalemate with Diego Simeone’s outfit may yet prove pivotal in whether City can add any silverware to their trophy cabinet come the end of the campaign.

The visitors were kicked off the park in a violent and captivating clash in the Spanish capital, costing them the services of De Bruyne, Gundogan and Walker.

• 16/04/22: Man City 2-3 Liverpool
• 13/04/22: Atletico Madrid 0-0 Man City
• 10/04/22: Man City 2-2 Liverpool
• 05/04/22: Man City 1-0 Atletico Madrid
• 02/04/22: Burnley 0-2 Man City
• 20/03/22: Southampton 1-4 Man City

We have given up trying to make rhyme or reason out of Brighton’s form. Six defeats in a row, seven games without a win and only one goal scored in that period followed by two victories away against opponents in contention for the top four.

The stronger the opponent, the better Brighton tend to play. And they do not come much stronger than City. That gives some hope ahead of what is for most Premier League clubs a thankless task, going to play at the Etihad.

• 16/04/22: Spurs 0-1 Brighton
• 09/04/22: Arsenal 1-2 Brighton
• 02/04/22: Brighton 0-0 Norwich
• 16/03/22: Brighton 0-2 Spurs
• 12/03/22: Brighton 0-2 Liverpool
• 05/03/22: Newcastle 2-1 Brighton

Last time Brighton played Man City
That thing we said a little earlier about Brighton player better against stronger teams? Well, it does not always work like that.

The Albion conceded three cheap goals in the opening 31 minutes when City visited the Amex in October. The game was up before we had even had our half time wine or £3.20 bag of Starburst.

Gundogan got the party started and Foden notched twice before the break as Brighton went in 3-0 behind. There was an improvement in the second half, which finished 1-1.

Alexis Mac Allister netted from the spot after Enock Mwepu won Brighton a clever penalty. Man City added their fourth of the evening late on through Riyad Mahrez – another Citizens player with a liking for scoring past the Albion.

Manchester City v Brighton head-to-head
Unsurprisingly, Man City lead the head-to-head against Brighton with 16 wins compared to the Albion’s five. Five of the remaining 26 meetings have been drawn.

If the Seagulls were to win at the Etihad, they would become the first ever Brighton side to return from the blue half of Manchester with three points.

The Albion’s record away against City is woeful. Nine losses and two draws from 11 visits, with both those points coming in the 1980s.

John Gregory scored in a 1-1 draw at Maine Road in March 1981. It was the same scoreline two seasons later, Andy Ritchie netting in December 1982. Man City and Brighton both went onto be relegated from the top flight at the end of that campaign.

A reason why Manchester City will win
Such is the money that Guardiola has at his disposal and the depth in his squad that City should be winning this – even with their reserves out.

A reason why Brighton will win
Because this is Brighton & Hove Albion we are talking about. Are you even a Seagulls fan if you are not half-expecting three points from the Ethiad, followed by a 2-0 defeat at home to Southampton on Sunday afternoon?

Manchester City v Brighton betting
This might surprise a few of you, but for once we are abandoning the normal tactic of betting on Brighton to draw.

For all the confidence attempted to pour into this match preview, Man City have to win to overtake Liverpool at the top and they will surely have too much quality for the Albion.

Instead, have a little bit of Foden to score anytime at 15/8. That should at least ease the pain when he inevitably finds a way past Robert Sanchez.

Predictions
Prediction of score: Man City 2-0 Brighton
Prediction of Guardiola post-game press conference: City will win, so he will call Potter the best English manager in the world again.