Brighton 0-0 Fulham: To the xG Champions League, we’re on our way

If you believe in xG, then Brighton 0-0 Fulham was another excellent result in what is turning into an excellent season for the Albion.

According to those expected goals stats which have been all the rage for the past two seasons, Brighton had an xG of 2.26 compared to Fulham’s 0.79, which means another three xG points for the collection.

Anyone who saw that xG Premier League table earlier in the week in which Brighton sat fifth will know that such a scoreline against the Cottagers lifts Graham Potter’s side into the top four. To the xG Champions League, we’re on our way.

For those who prefer to deal in the currency of actual goals and real points – like those who run the Premier League – then it was a less good evening.

The Albion were unable to grasp the opportunity to move eight points clear of the bottom three, pull Newcastle United into the relegation battle and put and put an end to a club-record 13 home games without a league win.

Brighton 0-0 Fulham extends that run to 14 matches. The Albion have now failed to beat Sheffield United, West Bromwich Albion, Burnley and Fulham at the Amex this season, the only clubs who have come to Sussex below them in the table.

A tough looking home fixture list in the second half of the campaign leaves only a few games with a winnable look about them – Newcastle, Crystal Palace and The Leeds United being the main ones.

Fail to win any of those and Brighton could be straying towards an entire season without a Premier League win at the Amex, breaking Sunderland’s all-time English record of 20 matches without a home victory in the process.

Every Albion fan knows where the problem lies. This Brighton team cannot put the ball in the back of the net. If they could, then the current barren home run would have ended ages ago and there would be no talk of relegation battles. We would be comfortably placed in mid table.

Somebody posted on Twitter after the game that if Brighton had five shots at John Lennon, The Beatles would still be making music today. Nothing could sum it up better.

Neal Maupay and Leandro Trossard led the way in terms of missed chances with impressive supporting roles from Lewis Dunk, Adam Webster and Pascal Gross once the Albion had survived a fast Fulham start.

The Cottagers were on top for the first 12 minutes, recording 71 percent possession without ever really testing Robert Sanchez. Once Brighton had weathered that storm, it was their turn to be utterly dominant for the remainder of the first half and they should have gone into the break with the three points (real, not xG) sewn up.

Three opportunities squandered in 240 seconds midway through the opening 45 minutes probably should have told us it was going to be another of those evenings where Brighton make predicting the result of sports bets easy. After all, we have seen this exact same game play out far too many times this season.

Trossard was the first to miss, putting an effort from around the penalty spot straight at Alphonse Areola after unselfish work from Maupay in surging into the box and cutting the ball back.

It was a good save from Areola, the first of many from a goalkeeper who is the major reason as to why Fulham have been so hard to beat since December. But even so, if Trossard shows a little more composure to place the ball either side of the Frenchman, Brighton lead 1-0.

90 seconds later and Trossard had a chance to make amends after Fulham gave the ball away. Again though, Areola repelled the effort. Dunk then met a beautiful Gross free kick with a powerful header which he could only place straight at the thankful Fulham number one.

Webster had a bit of a scare when he lost possession high up the pitch which allowed Fulham to break at speed, only for Ivan Cavaleiro to fire just wide with Sanchez looking beaten.

Having played so well in recent weeks on the right of the back three, Webster was back on the left for Brighton 0-0 Fulham which explains why he had that little wobble.

Gross drilled a low free kick just wide of the post at the end of the first half. Fulham were much improved for the second and although Brighton had a lot of the ball, they could not find a way through the mass ranks of now-organised white shirts. Whatever Parker had said at the break had worked.

That was until the final 20 minutes when the Albion again should have scored three or four times to ensure it did not finish Brighton 0-0 Fulham.

Joel Veltman showed real intelligence to play a quickly taken free kick, Alexis Mac Allister produced a gorgeous deft around the corner flick which took out two Fulham defenders and left Maupay in on goal, only for the French striker to fire over when he should have been hitting the target at the very least.

Webster put a free header from another good Brighton delivery wide. Gross’ perfectly weighted through ball sent Ben White scampering away down the right and Maupay stretched to reach White’s cross, only to see the effort blocked by the sprawling Areola.

The loose ball fell to Solly March the other side of goal. Not even one of the few players who has been relatively clinical for the Albion this season could find a way through as March’s shot was deflected over by the back of the wonderfully named Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa.

In a parallel universe somewhere, coronavirus does not exist, Gavin & Stacey is still on our television screens, McDonalds sells the Big Tasty all year round and Brighton are a clinical football team who were 6-0 up against Fulham.

The only thing that could have been more Brighton than having 16 shots and failing to win the game would have been having 16 shots and managing to lose the game.

Without the brilliance of Dunk, that would have happened. Fulham ventured into the Albion box just twice in the second half, an Aleksandar Mitrović header proving easy for Sanchez to gather.

Then in the final seconds, Ruben Loftus-Cheek drilled a low effort which looked destined for the back of the net once it had flown past Sanchez.

Dunk though had other ideas and produced a sensational block on the line to ensure his side did not fall to what would have been the most gutting defeat of the season.

Reading social media afterwards, you could have been forgiven for thinking that the game had actually ended in the most gutting defeat of the season rather than Brighton 0-0 Fulham.

Although not an ideal result, the most important thing was that the Albion did not lose. Consecutive clean sheets were a positive and if you ignore what happened inside the penalty area, then it was one of the best performances of the season. Parker even went so far as to describe it as “an onslaught”.

For once, Potter could take little blame for a disappointing result. Somebody must have confiscated his Roulette Selection Wheel for a week as he picked his best available side. The players he selected created loads and they did so in a much more direct manner than normal.

In the first half, Brighton took a shot every 24 passes rather than going nowhere whilst stroking it about from side to side. Fulham ended the game with 51% possession, so this was yet another example of the Albion playing much better when they have (marginally) less of the ball than their opponents.

The only possible complaint there could be is that Potter did not utilise his bench. Davy Pröpper was the one substitute used and he was not introduced until inside the final 10 minutes.

Could earlier or more subs have made a difference? Probably not. Brighton’s approach play was fine, the thing they needed to change was sticking the ball in the back of the net.

There was not anyone on the bench to come on and do that – Aaron Connolly is returning from injury and from what we have seen of Percy Tau and Andi Zeqiri, they are not foxes in the box either. Danny Welbeck’s return cannot come soon enough in that regard.

After so many glaring misses in front of goal, there were understandable calls for the Albion to break the bank on a striker in the final throes of the January transfer window.

That will not happen though. At 10.30pm on Tuesday night, Brighton announced record losses for the 2019-20 season of £67 million.

At 10.30pm on Wednesday night, supporters were begging Tony Bloom to spend £30 million on a new centre forward. You do not need to be the lovely Rachel Riley to see the problem here.

Finances dictate that Potter is going to have to work with what he has got and Brighton are going to have to hope that they can find a way to scrape more points together than three other teams.

If they cannot, then we will just have to pray that the Premier League start awarding points for xG. Then we can look forward to playing Bayern Munich away in the Champions League next season.