Brighton face tough test against the Luton Town fairy tale

Kenilworth Road. Tuesday 17th February 2009. A Brighton side staring relegation into League Two in the face met a Luton Town side heading out of the Football League in the Southern Section Final of the Johnstone’s Paint Pot.

It was a grim night in Bedfordshire for Albion supporters. The Seagulls were sent to an embarrassing exit, losing on penalties.

Hatters fans celebrated their trip to Wembley Stadium by invading the pitch and launching a hail of coins into the away support. Micky Adams was sacked as Brighton boss four days later.

Imagine you were at Kenilworth Road that evening, turned to a friend and said that in 14 years time, Brighton and Luton would meet on the opening day of the Premier League season.

You would have been taken to a secure facility very quickly; which at least would have avoided the horrible walk back to the station, dodging locals who wanted to fight anything that moved.

Strange bunch, the people of Luton. And now they are supporters of a top flight football team. That is even stranger.

The Brighton story has been hailed as the modern day sporting fairy tale, but in reality the Luton story is even more impressive. The Albion climbed four divisions in 16 years thanks to Tony Bloom’s bankrolling and the building of the Amex Stadium.

Luton have gone up five leagues in under a decade without a single major benefactor and whilst playing at Kenilworth Road, a ramshackle ground which resembles something from the 1950s. Bet you didn’t know the turnstile to the away stand is through someone’s front room, did you?

At every turn, the Hatters have been written off. The 30 point deduction which sent them into non league in the first place would have finished off a lesser club.

The Conference itself with only two promotion places is a nightmare to get out off. League Two was then meant to be their ceiling, followed by League One.

Once in the Championship, Luton were going to be nothing more than relegation fodder. With one of the lowest transfer budgets and wage bills in the second tier, there was no way they could hope to compete with clubs boasting full internationals and parachute payments.

And yet here we are. The Hatters keep defying the odds. Which makes them dangerous opponents, especially on their Premier League debut. A debut which is supposed to have been utterly impossible.

Unfashionable Championship playoff winners who win a promotion nobody expected have a good record in their opening match of the following top flight season.

The past seven years have seen Brentford famously defeat Arsenal. Huddersfield Town hammered Crystal Palace 3-0 at Selhurst Park. Hull City saw off reigning champions Leicester City.

Teams with a point to prove raise their game on their Premier League bow, determined to show the world they are not merely here to make up the numbers.

Luton have a bigger point to prove than almost any of those playoff winners who have gone before; something Brighton need to be very wary of if they are to avoid being the victim of what the rest of football will perceive as a shock defeat to kick off the new campaign.

The Albion have questions of their own to answer. Can they match or exceed last season’s sixth placed finish? How will they cope without Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo? Will the rest of the top flight work out a way to blunt the unique style of play that is DeZerbiBall?

Caicedo departing for a potential English record fee means Roberto De Zerbi has lost two key players from the spine of his team. No matter how good the head coach or impressive a club’s recruitment track record is, that is a challenge to overcome.

It will therefore be a new-look Albion through the middle for 2023-24. Adam Webster remains an injury doubt for the Luton game and with Levi Colwill back at Chelsea, Igor Julio is likely to make his Brighton debut alongside Lewis Dunk at centre back.

Billy Gilmour and Mahmoud Dahoud must be the favourites to replace Mac Allister and Caicedo in the two midfield roles.

Gilmour was much improved in the final throes of the previous campaign. Dahoud has something to prove having never lived up to his early promise at Borussia Dortmund. It is hard to imagine them being anywhere near as effective as the duo they replace; not straight off the bat, anyway.

£30 million signing from Watford Joao Pedro started at number 10 in the 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano. As a former Hornet, he can expect a warm reception from the packed Luton away end.

Igor, Dahoud, Gilmour and Pedro played 14 Premier League games between them last season. That number is a reminder of just how much change Brighton have undergone in central areas over the course of this summer.

But what is the opening day of the football season for, if not optimism? The Albion were one of the most exciting attacking teams to watch in the world in 2022-23 and as long as De Zerbi remains at the helm, that will continue to be so.

They were also one of the most extreme in terms of different results and performances. When DeZerbiBall worked, it was glorious. Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal were all hammered.

Treble winners Manchester City were lucky to escape the Amex with a point after seeing their 14 game winning streak ended in a 1-1 draw.

On the flip side, the Albion were beaten by Everton and Nottingham Forest. They shipped four goals at Newcastle United. The less said about the Carabao Cup cock up at Charlton Athletic, the better.

Nothing summed up this swerving from the sublime to the ridiculous better than 11 days in May. Brighton veered from beating Manchester United to that 5-1 loss at home to Everton to ending the title hopes of Arsenal by winning 3-0 at the Emirates.

As has been the case for much of the past 122 years, the only thing predictable about the Albion is unpredictability. Brighton v Luton is therefore not a game you want to be betting on, with so many factors involved which could lead to it going either way.

What of the odds? Well, the bookies have Brighton as low as 3/10 to win. Luton are a best priced 19/2. Brighton have never been such heavy favourites to win a Premier League match as they are to beat the Hatters.

And we all know what that usually means… happy new football season, everyone.