Brighton fans need some cheer at Watford where there is no beer
It isn’t very often Brighton play a game and you have to Google who the opposition manager is – but that is always an advised course of action when Watford are involved.
Turns out that Roy Hodgson is currently undertaking his three months spell in charge of the Hornets, a civic duty the footballing equivalent of jury service which every manager gets called to do at least once in their life.
Hodgson is a surprisingly sensible appointment by the Hornets, a clever old manager who knows what it takes to survive in the Premier League.
Whether he can deliver safety at such a basket case club remains to be seen, but he surely stands a better chance than his predecessor Claudio Ranieri, who lasted all of 13 matches after replacing promotion winning boss Xisco.
The Albion’s visit to Vicarage Road will be Hodgson’s third game in charge and his first at home, meaning that Watford should still be benefitting from the new manager bounce – presuming such a thing exists where there is a new manager every few weeks.
That makes this a tricky afternoon for Brighton in their quest for another three points to strengthen their European challenge.
Following last week’s disappointing FA Cup exit at the hands of Spurs, a top six finish is now the Albion’s only hope of securing Thursday nights in Kazakhstan and Albania in 2021-22.
Watford this season
When Watford sacked Xisco back in October, they had seven points from seven games and were sitting 14th in the table. That represented a decent start for a newly promoted team.
If only the Pozzo Family agreed. Out went the Spaniard, in came Ranieri and now Hodgson. The managerial merry ground has made Watford worse if anything and they currently occupy 19th place.
With the Saudi Sportswashers at Newcastle United spending their way out of relegation and Norwich City having shown a surprising amount of improvement since Dean Smith took over, the Hornets have a real fight on their hands to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
And they will probably get through another three managers between now and their fate is decided either way at the end of the campaign.
Team news
Having looked pretty toothless in the first half at Spurs last week, Brighton will be relieved that both Leandro Trossard and Alexis Mac Allister have recovered from Covid-19 and are available for selection against Watford.
Enock Mwepu remains sidelined, but he is the only senior player who Potter will be without. It will be interesting to see whether the Albion boss shakes things up after last week’s below-par showing or puts it down as a one-off and gives the same players the chance to redeem themselves in the bread and butter of league football.
Watford will be boosted by the return of their most dangerous player, Ismaila Sarr. A combination of winning AFCON with Senegal and injury means he has not played for the Hornets since November.
January signing Samuel Kalu could make his Watford debut and Kwadwo Baah is back from a fractured ankle, meaning that Hodgson’s squad almost has a clean bill of health too.
Key battles
Watford will probably need to divert most of their attention to Danny Welbeck, who has a superb goal scoring record when coming up against clubs he has previously played for.
No former Manchester United player in history has ever returned to Old Trafford to score on three separate occasions, other than Dat Guy Welbz. He also scored for Watford on his only appearance against Arsenal since the Gunners released him.
Trying to keep Welbeck out will be part time goalkeeper, full time social media star Ben Foster. The former England international continues to impress at the sprightly age of 38 and has started Hodgson’s two games in charge so far, keeping the Hornets’ only clean sheet of the season against Burnley a week ago.
Recent form
You have to go back to November 20th to find the last time Watford won a game. It was quite the victory, a 4-1 hammering of Manchester United which sped up the departure of Ole Gunnar Solksjaer from the wheel.
Their two results since Hodgson arrived are exactly what you would expect from wily old Roy. No goals scored but only one conceded in a set of defensive-minded, well organised performances.
Potter failed to win a single game against Hodgson when he was at Crystal Palace, unable to find a means to overcome a brand of football which relied on sitting back and picking off the Albion on very rare forays forward.
Let us hope that the Brighton boss has a plan up his sleeve this time, otherwise it could be a long afternoon at a stadium where the away end does not sell any beer to numb the pain.
- 08/02/22: West Ham 1-0 Watford
- 05/02/22: Burnley 0-0 Watford
- 21/01/22: Watford 0-3 Norwich
- 15/01/22: Newcastle 1-1 Watford
- 08/01/22: Leicester 4-1 Watford
- 01/01/22: Watford 0-1 Spurs
Last week’s defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was the first game Brighton had lost since mid-December. There were excuses for it; uncharacteristic individual mistakes from Adam Webster whilst Lewis Dunk looked every bit as rusty as you would expect someone who has not played for six weeks to be.
The Albion have lost only twice on the road in the Premier League this season and have one of the best defensive records in the top flight. If we are honest, this probably has yet another draw written all over it.
- 05/02/22: Spurs 3-1 Brighton
- 26/01/22: Leicester 1-1 Brighton
- 18/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Chelsea
- 14/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
- 08/01/22: West Brom 1-2 Brighton
- 02/01/22: Everton 2-3 Brighton
Last time Brighton played Watford
Victory over Watford back in August made a little piece of Brighton history as the Albion started a top flight season with two wins for the first ever time.
Shane Duffy headed the Seagulls into the lead and Neal Maupay despatched a surprisingly clinical second into the back of the Hornets net for a routine 2-0 Brighton victory.
Watford v Brighton head-to-head
Watford are the club who Brighton have faced more than any other in their 121 year history. 164 matches across 13 different competitions have seen 65 Albion wins, 54 Hornets wins and 45 draws.
In 2022, the only beef Seagulls supporters can have with Watford is that aforementioned lack of alcohol in the away end. It was a very different story for the first 40 years of the fixture, when there was a fair amount of rivalry between the clubs.
As early as 1903, the sides met in a playoff to decide whether Watford kept their place in Southern League Division One or were replaced by the Albion of Division Two.
Brighton won that one, as they did the 1910 Southern League Charity Cup Final between the clubs at Stamford Bridge. Being paired together for four consecutive seasons in the FA Cup at odds of 9,000,000 to 1 throughout the 1920s stoked the fires further.
The biggest grudge match came at the end of the 1940-41 season. Because of the incompletion of fixtures in the war division owing to Luton Town and Norwich City’s late introduction to the competition, Watford decided to dispute the Albion’s final finishing position at the top of the pile.
Both sides were locked on 17 points with Brighton sitting pretty in first on goal difference. Charlie Webb’s side had also played one less game than Watford, which gave them a better points average if you want to go down that route.
Basically, the Hornets had no real claim to the title. They had played more matches to pick up the required points total, they averaged less points per game than Brighton and their goal difference was worse.
Despite all that, a one-off challenge match was remarkably set up to decide the destination of the trophy. Justice prevailed and it was the Albion who were crowned champions after a 4-1 victory thanks to two goals apiece from Bert Stephens and Jack Balmer.
A reason why Watford will win
Brighton victories at Vicarage Road are rare this century, with just two in the league despite the frequency with which the clubs have faced each other.
Throw in the Hodgson v Potter factor, the new manager bounce and this being Roy’s first home game in the Hornets dugout and you have all the ingredients for a game that may not go the way the Premier League table suggests it should.
A reason why Brighton will win
Maupay loves a goal against Watford. Welbeck loves a goal against his former clubs. Brighton have two strikers who you can reasonably expect to find the back of the net at Vicarage Road and that could be vital against a Hornets side who do not score many themselves.
Watford v Brighton betting
During the winter break, we wrote a long piece about how much money you could have made this season betting on Brighton to draw every game.
Needless to say, that means we will be lumping on the stalemate to continue building a pot of winnings which could be enough to afford hiring Watford win Elton John to sing at a future WAB wedding.
Welbeck to score anytime has some value too with his record against former clubs. Even if he starts on the bench, the Albion’s penchant for late goals means Dat Guy is still worth a couple of quid.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Watford 1-1 Brighton
Prediction of sobriety level by full time: Far, far too high
