Brighton go to Brentford in Tony Bloom v Matthew Benham Derby
Forget Cristiano Ronaldo returning to Manchester United. The real drama of Premier League gameweek four will be at the Brentford Community Stadium as Brighton visit the Bees in the latest instalment of the Matthew Benham v Tony Bloom Derby.
For the uninitiated, Bloom and Benham hate each other with a passion rarely seen outside of Phil Mitchell versus Ian Beale. Benham used to work for Bloom until an almighty falling out led Benham to set up his own company, essentially doing exactly the same as Bloom’s Star Lizard.
It was a classic case of the protegee breaking away from the master and going it alone, causing a rift. The similarities of course go beyond business; both men have now bought the football clubs they supported (as well as clubs in Europe), introduced Moneyball-style analytics, built new stadiums and taken their boyhood teams from League One to the Premier League.
The top flight now gets one of the most bitter individual rivalries in football, and yet bizarrely nobody seems to even know about it. So bitter in fact that Bloom refuses to be in the same room as Benham, always shunning the director’s box at Brentford to instead stand – or sit as will be the case now Griffin Park no longer exists – in the away end.
Brentford this season
After a couple of near misses, Brentford finally made the promised land of the Premier League following promotion via the Championship playoffs last season.
Whereas most teams promoted through the end-of-season lottery are instantly installed by leading sportsbooks as favourites for relegation, the Bees have been given a fighting chance.
Bookmakers seem to be intrigued by Benham and his Moneyball approach which goes beyond even the way that the Albion use statistics and data for their recrutiment.
So far, it looks like those bookies might be right. Brentford began the campaign with a 2-0 win over Arsenal and have since picked up decent draws on the road at Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.
Three unbeaten games and two clean sheets leaves them 10th in the table, a good start even if they are yet to face any of the top flight’s stronger outfits.
Team news
Solly March is expected to be fit again after missing Brighton 0-2 Everton before the international break and Aaron Connolly trained in the week after picking up his usual injury whilst away with the Republic of Ireland.
Thomas Frank’s favoured formation is similar to Graham Potter’s 3-4-1-2 with Brentford possessing frighteningly quick wing backs. Given the torrid time that Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend gave Pascal Gross and Jakub Moder last time out, it would be madness for Potter to use two central midfielders in wide positions again.
That means that new £15 million signing Marc Cucurella is surely vying with Solly March and Joel Veltman for the two wing back spots, presuming Potter does not switch to a flat back four.
Who Potter selects centrally is anyone’s guess. Yves Bissouma is a certainty but beyond that, Brighton almost have too many options. Can you drop Pascal Gross – as so many fans seemingly want – when he has assisted 50 percent of the Albion’s goals so far this season?
Leave out Adam Lallana and you are jettisoning a leader who brings total control in everything he does. And the whole country saw what Jakub Moder can bring to the party when used in the middle of the park rather than out wide as he ran rings around England on Wednesday night.
Some tough decisions ahead for Potter, which will probably end with Cucurella up front and Enock Mwepu playing at centre back.
Key battles
Moneyball has seen Brentford create a conveyor belt of centre forwards who they pluck from obscurity for bargain-basement fees, sell on for a massive profit within a year or two and then replace them with an even better striker. Do not tell Mr Bloom this, but Benham knows what he is doing when it comes to strikers.
When Neal Maupay moved to the Amex for £20 million, he was succeeded by Ollie Watkins, once of Exeter City. Watkins was then sold to Aston Villa a year later and in came Ivan Toney from Peterborough United.
Toney tore up Championship scoring and assist records last season. He is the sort of centre forward who Brighton have struggled against in the past, so it will be interesting to see how Lewis Dunk, Shane Duffy and Adam Webster get on against him.
We have already talked about the threat that Brentford offer out wide through Rico Henry and Sergi Canos, who scored nine times himself in 2020-21 for the Bees. Brighton need to negate those two using actual wing backs or full backs.
And then there is Maupay. He has begun the campaign in good form and looking like a much more mature individual. He tends to always score against sides he does not like (1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up The Leeds United) or when he has a point to prove.
Maupay’s first match against Brentford since leaving the club where he made his name should have him suitably fired up. He will be crucial to Brighton’s chances of success by Kew Bridge.
Recent form
Six points to kick off the campaign represented Brighton’s best ever start to a top flight season. Those wins over Burnley and Watford came in matches which the Albion would undoubtedly have cocked up in 2020-21, based on the fact that Potter struggled to find a way to overcome the sides around Brighton in the relegation battle.
Brentford are likely to be another opponent who the Seagulls are in direct battle with over the course of the next nine months. The trip to their new stadium made of Lego therefore provides another opportunity to see if the Albion can continue to win the sort of matches that will keep them out of the bottom five this season.
- 28/08/21: Brighton 0-2 Everton
- 24/08/21: Cardiff City 0-2 Brighton
- 21/08/21: Brighton 2-0 Watford
- 14/08/21: Burnley 1-2 Brighton
- 23/05/21: Arsenal 2-0 Brighton
- 18/05/21: Brighton 3-2 Manchester City
Brentford are yet to lose so far in any competition in 2021-22. In fact, they have lost only once in their previous 19 matches when going down 1-0 away at Plucky Little Bournemouth in the first leg of their Championship playoff semi final.
A 3-1 victory five days later for the Bees back at the Brentford Community Stadium rendered that loss meaningless anyway. This Brentford team are one are not used to failure, even since joining the elite.
- 28/08/21: Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford
- 24/08/21: Brentford 3-1 Forest Green Rovers
- 21/08/21: Crystal Palace 0-0 Brentford
- 13/08/21: Brentford 2-0 Arsenal
- 29/05/21: Brentford 2-0 Swansea City
- 22/05/21: Brentford 3-1 Plucky Little Bournemouth
Last time we met
An absolutely crazy Sunday afternoon of football at Griffin Park back in February 2017. Brentford stormed into a 2-0 lead inside of 22 minutes which they held until March and Duffy scored within 180 seconds of each other as the game entered the final quarter of an hour.
Konstantin Kerschbaumer (try spelling that after a bottle of Merlot) then thought he had given Benham bragging rights over Bloom with an injury time goal for Brentford to make it 3-2.
The action was not done however as Tomer Hemed equalised in what felt like the 27th minute of time added on to make it 3-3. Hemed no doubt received a nice Christmas hamper that year from Bloom for his late, late heroics.
Brighton v Brentford head-to-head
It comes as no surprise that Brentford have been one of Brighton’s most frequent opponents through the years, given the similarities between the clubs which existed long before Bloom and Benham arrived.
The teams have met in the Championship, League One, League Two, the old Division Three South, the FA Cup, the League Cup and the Paint Pot. This will be the first top flight fixture, completing the top four divisions set.
Brighton lead the way with 32 victories from 73 encounters. Brentford have won 27 and their have been 14 draws. There have also been further meetings in wartime football and the Southern League.
A reason why Brighton will win
It is amazing what money can do to inspire. If Bloom decides to wave a sizable bonus under the noses of the Brighton players to ensure that he tastes the sweet success of victory over Benham, then we could be in for a repeat of when the Albion blew Brentford away at the Amex back when winning 3-0 back in February 2016.
A reason why Brentford will win
Brentford has never been the happiest of hunting grounds for the Albion. There was a period in the 2000s when we went to Griffin Park, never scored and often conceded four goals.
Your correspondent has been to Brentford away on at least 13 occasions and only ever seen one league victory there. And even that needed an own goal from Karleigh Osborne to give Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named’s League One champions a 1-0 win in the third game of Mad March 2011.
The FA Cup provided a little more joy when Chris Hughton triumphed in his first game in charge thanks to goals in the final two minutes from Lewis Dunk and Chris O’Grady. If O’Grady scores, we’re on the pitch…
Brentford v Brighton betting
This looks like being one of those games to go down the anytime scorer route. Brighton fans have clamoured in the past for the Albion to sign Toney, making it grimly predictable that he will net at 9/5 to spark a Twitter meltdown.
Maupay meanwhile seems equally likely to return to haunt the club who gave him his chance in English football. You can find the fiendish Frenchman for a best priced 23/10.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brentford 1-1 Brighton
Prediction of xG score: Brentford 1.1 – 4.9 Brighton
Prediction of where Bloom watches from: The away end
