Brighton head to Southampton for the 64.3 miles apart South Coast Derby
Southampton v Brighton is one of the easiest Premier League fixtures for media outlets to generate clicks, shares and comments. Not because it is a big game or anything – you simply have to describe it as a South Coast Derby and both sets of supporters completely and utterly lose their minds.
Even The Argus were at it in the run up to the 99th game between these non-rivals. If you could drag yourself away from the lead story on their website (father of 11 who has a pet crocodile and pet snake says he cannot find a home to rent because his face is tattooed), then headline news was ‘Albion manager Graham Potter not feeling pressure of South Coast Derby’.
Of course he isn’t feeling the pressure of the South Coast Derby. Because this isn’t a South Coast Derby. 64.3 miles separates the cities of Brighton & Hove and Southampton, the equivalent of claiming Bristol City v Aston Villa is a derby.
There is no rivalry to speak of between the Albion and Southampton, either. Brighton have Crystal Palace for rivals and the Saints despise Portsmouth.
Unless your name happens to be Gus Poyet (in which case we are not supposed to mention you) or Nigel Adkins – who did their best to create something in the 2010-11 League One season – Southampton v Brighton is just another game on the calendar.
One that both sides really need to win given their respective recent form. Which naturally means you should use any bet365 offers backing the draw.
Southampton this season
Cast your mind back a little over a year and Southampton sat top of the Premier League with Ralph Hasenhüttl being hailed the greatest manager since sliced bread.
A surprisingly strong start to the 2020-21 in many ways mirrored what the Albion achieved in the opening weeks of the current campaign, although the Saints climbed higher and remained there longer than Brighton’s brief dalliance with the Champions League spots.
Fast forward 12 months and Southampton find themselves 16th in the table having won only three games all season. They are surely too good to survive but right now, it is hard to see them doing anything other than treading water around the bottom half of the table.
Why is this? Some Southampton fans are worried that Hasenhüttl has gone stale. Similar happened during his time at Red Bull Leipzig. He gave Red Bull wings in his first season in Germany but progress slowed in the second and third years.
With the Saints now into their third full season with Hasenhüttl at the helm, is the same thing happening? And if it is, should they gamble by swapping a manager who will guarantee them Premier League survival every year for an unknown in the hope they can start pushing for the top eight again?
What would help Southampton is if they stopped drawing so many games, an aspect of life at St Mary’s which will sound familiar to Seagulls supporters.
The Saints’ record of six draws is the second-most in the Premier League this season after Brighton and Palace, who have both recorded seven.
Here is your second reminder to open up at the sportsbook and bet on the points being shared.
Team news
Potter has already confirmed that Jeremy Sarmiento, Adam Webster and Adam Lallana will all miss the game after picking up injuries in Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw at West Ham.
At least three changes are therefore guaranteed. Shane Duffy and Pascal Gross are the obvious inclusions for Webster and Lallana.
Tariq Lamptey will also surely start having been rested to the bench at the London Stadium before coming on to set up Neal Maupay for his stunning bicycle kick.
Jan Bednarek was withdrawn late on for Southampton after scoring as they drew 2-2 with Leicester City in midweek.
Hasenhüttl has said he is hopeful that the defender will recover for the Not a South Coast Derby, but the Saints will definitely be without Stuart Armstrong and possibly Jack Stephens.
Key battles
Brighton’s problems defending set pieces are well-known. At West Ham, they looked about as convincing dealing with corners as Boris Johnson does when asked about the Christmas party held at 10 Downing Street last year whilst the rest of us plebs were told not to see friends or family.
The Hammers opener came from a corner and Brighton should be pushing VAR to the top of their Christmas card list after it ruled out another goal in the second half, saving the blushes of Robert Sanchez who got in a total mess when attempting to punch clear.
In James Ward-Prowse, Southampton have the best set piece taker in the Premier League. The key battle therefore could lie in how Sanchez, Lewis Dunk, Joel Veltman and Duffy cope whenever Ward-Prowse has the opportunity to deliver.
If Brighton can find a way to nullify the threat he poses, then the odds of them ending their nine game winless streak will improve dramatically.
Recent form
Neither side’s form guide makes for great reading. Southampton have one point from their last three, although they did at least win the two games prior to that.
Their record at St Mary’s this season is good too, Wolves being the only side to leave the Costa Del Solent with three points back in September.
Combine that with Brighton’s pretty terrible record away at Southampton and there are not many reasons to be confident of predicting an Albion win, sadly.
- 01/12/21: Southampton 2-2 Leicester
- 27/11/21: Liverpool 4-0 Southampton
- 20/11/21: Norwich 2-1 Southampton
- 05/11/21: Southampton 1-0 Aston Villa
- 30/10/21: Watford 0-1 Southampton
- 26/10/21: Chelsea 1-1 Southampton
Failure to win at St Mary’s will push Brighton into the unchartered waters of a 10th Premier League game without a victory.
Graham Potter and Chris Hughton have both previously overseen winless runs of nines, but the Albion are yet to record double digits in their current spell in the top flight.
That the Seagulls remain in the top 10 despite not having won since mid-September is a sign of how tight the Premier League is this season.
It is also down to the fact that the Albion do not lose many matches – just three defeats all season and only one of those on the road.
Which makes the draw the most predictable outcome. Reminder number three to check the odds and put some money on it.
- 01/12/21: West Ham 1-1 Brighton
- 27/11/21: Brighton 0-0 The Leeds United
- 20/11/21: Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton
- 06/11/21: Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
- 30/10/21: Liverpool 2-2 Brighton
- 27/10/21: Leicester 2-2 Brighton
- 23/10/21: Brighton 1-4 Man City
Last time we met
Brighton picked up only their second ever win at St Mary’s back in March, a much needed three points after a horror end to February.
Crystal Palace had won 2-1 at the Amex from just three touches inside the Albion penalty area. Brighton then managed the impressive feat of missing two penalties in the space of an hour on their way to losing 2-0 at soon-to-be-relegated West Brom.
Dunk powered home a first half header to give the Seagulls the lead at St Mary’s. Che Adams equalised 11 minutes later with the game decided in the second half by a brilliantly worked goal involving Lallana and Danny Welbeck finished off by Leandro Trossard.
An excellent Sunday afternoon was rounded off when we tweeted that we hoped Mrs Trossard had a lovely Mother’s Day for her son moving Brighton three points clear of the relegation zone, and she replied saying she had. A day full of chocolate and many glasses of Delirium in true Belgian style, one hopes.
Southampton v Brighton head-to-head
There have been 98 previous Not a South Coast Derby between Southampton and Brighton across 11 different competitions. The Saints lead the head-to-head by some way, having won 44 matches compared to Brighton’s 29 with 25 draws thrown in.
In terms of top flight meetings, the Albion have won three out of 16 with seven draws and six Southampton victories.
That dismal record is largely due to Brighton’s current Premier League spell – the Mother’s Day win at St Mary’s nine months ago is the only time the Albion have beaten Southampton since winning promotion in 2017.
A reason why Southampton will win
They won’t. It will be a draw.
A reason why Brighton will win
They won’t. It will be a draw.
Southampton v Brighton betting
Can you guess what is coming here? Backing the Albion to draw against The Leeds United and West Ham means that I have won enough money in the past seven days so that my missus might get some jewellery for Christmas that is not from the Lizzie Duke range at Argos this year.
The bookmakers seem to be cottoning onto the fact they are leaking money to Brighton draws and so most sportsbooks have tightened their odds to a best price 23/10 for Southampton v the Albion to finish level.
In terms of an anytime goal scorer bet, then if Brighton do fail to deal effectively with Ward-Prowse’s set piece delivery, it is likely to be one of the Saints’ centre backs who takes advantage.
Should Bednarek be fit enough to start, he will fancy his chances of making it two goals from two games. Mohammed Salisu is another name worth keeping an eye on once the teams are announced.
Predictions
Prediction of result: Draw. In case you hadn’t worked that out already
Prediction of number of times the game is called a South Coast Derby: 127
