Brighton look to bounce to first win in five over Crystal Palace
The last time Brighton beat Crystal Palace feels like a lifetime ago. Theresa May was telling us Brexit meant Brexit, Covid-19 sounded like a new nightclub in Telford and Chris Hughton sat in the Albion dugout.
Clearly, much has changed since that 2-1 win at Selhurst Park back in March 2019, both in the wider world and at the Amex Stadium.
Of the Brighton XI who started when Anthony Knockaert scored one of the greatest goals the Seagulls v Eagles rivalry has seen, the only one likely to be in the side against the old enemy this time around is Shane Duffy – and that is via his infamous gap year in Glasgow.
Other survivors from that day still with the Albion are the injured Lewis Dunk, Yves Bissouma who is away at AFCON and the currently out-of-favour Pascal Gross. And that is pretty much it, such has been the speed of change since Graham Potter took over from Hughton.
The vast majority of this Brighton squad have never delivered a victory over Palace. Potter is yet to defeat the Eagles in five attempts, losing twice at the Amex and drawing three times at Selhurst.
Surely it is time for a long-awaited three points against that lot from up the road and their fanatics? Let’s have them crying into their black Primark jumpers come 10pm.
Crystal Palace this season
They say that imitation is the best form of flattery. Brighton should therefore be flattered that Crystal Palace have essentially tried to copy the overhaul carried out by the Albion over the past two-and-half-years.
Palace replaced a manager known for being defensive and grinding out results with an exciting, young coach committed to a more progressive brand of football in the summer. Roy Hodgson was the Eagles’ Hughton and Patrick Vieira their Potter.
They then rebuilt their squad, getting rid of older players on big wages in favour of exciting young talents more suited to carrying out the new boss’ attacking style.
A slow start to the season made it appear as though Palace would follow in the footsteps of Stoke City, West Brom and countless others who all struggled after attempting such a dramatic change of approach. Brighton are one of the few clubs to have instigated such a transformation in and have it work.
But – and this is not an easy thing to say – Palace now appear to be making a success of it. And arguably at a quicker speed than Brighton did.
The Albion have finished 15th and 16th in Potter’s two seasons so far, respectable placings given the challenges that have to be overcome when introducing a completely new culture.
Palace could end their first season under such new methods with a top 10 finish. They certainly are not going to trouble the relegation places as Brighton did at various points whilst Potter went about his rebuild.
All of which makes it imperative that the Albion finish above Palace this season. We cannot be below them for the fifth successive Premier League season and have them do a speedier job at transforming their club. The noise from Selhurst would be too much.
Team news
The two main protagonists in Brighton v Crystal Palace matches over the past 10 years will both be missing. Potter has said Dunk has an outside chance, but we know the Albion like to overegg the pudding when it comes to giving dates for players returning from injury.
In any case, would you really want to pitch Dunk into such an important game having not played a minute of competitive action for six weeks?
The Albion do not have a good record when it comes to using rusty players against Palace; just ask Dean Blackwell and Simon Rodger, who both made their Brighton debuts in the 5-0 defeat at Selhurst in 2002 after signing on free transfers a few days earlier.
Palace meanwhile will be without their golden child Wilfried Zaha, who like Bissouma is away at AFCON. Brighton fans have been rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of facing the Eagles without their star man.
Would now be a good time to remind everyone that he also missed Palace’s visit to the Amex last season? Yeah, that one when it somehow finished Brighton 1-2 Crystal Palace.
Other team news besides the absence of Dunk and Zaha seems kind of inconsequential. Enock Mwepu is out and so Moises Caicedo might feature at some point for the first time in the Premier League after being recalled from his loan spell at Beerschot.
As well as Zaha, Jordan Ayew and Cheikhou Kouyate are also at AFCON. James McArthur and James Tomkins are both sidelined by injury.
Key battles
One of the most impressive performers in the Premier League this season has been Conor Gallagher. He was the best player on the pitch when Palace and Brighton drew 1-1 at Selhurst in September, helped largely by Bissouma being injured and Potter naming a midfield pairing of Adam Lallana and Pascal Gross.
With no Bissouma again on this occasion, Potter will need to devise a way to keep Gallagher quiet. Deploying a midfielder capable of holding seems the most obvious way to do so, which might open the door for Steve Alzate to start or even Caicedo.
Potter is not adverse to making big calls in the engine room against Palace. In December 2019, he replaced the suspended Dale Stephens with Bissouma.
At the time, that looked like a risky decision. Over the previous 18 months, Bissouma had rarely shown signs of having the discipline or awareness needed to operate as a defensive midfielder.
Fast forward two years and he is one of the best in the Premier League at that role. Will another star be born whilst nullifying the threat of Gallagher and helping Brighton to victory?
Recent form
Brighton are in confident form having won three and drawn two of their past five matches. The 11 game winless streak which set a new club record for the Albion in the top flight seems like a distant memory now.
Of course, such is the importance of these games that they can set the tone for what happens over the coming weeks.
Sorry to mention Palace at the Amex last season again, but Brighton came into that one undefeated in six and with victories over Spurs and Liverpool under their belts.
Defeat to Palace sent the campaign back into a month-long spell of disarray, including the Seagulls missing two penalties in the space of an hour at West Brom five days later.
Beating Palace this time around can provide the springboard for Brighton to push back towards the top seven. It is another reason why it is so important.
- 08/01/22: West Brom 1-2 Brighton
- 02/01/22: Everton 2-3 Brighton
- 29/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
- 26/12/21: Brighton 2-0 Brentford
- 15/12/21: Brighton 0-1 Wolves
- 04/12/21: Southampton 1-1 Brighton
Palace will arrive at the Amex feeling the buzz from a win over rivals of their own. They came through 2-1 in the South London against Croydon Derby with Millwall in the FA Cup at the weekend, showing good character to recover from 1-0 down in the febrile atmosphere of the Den.
That took the Eagles’ form over their last six matches to three wins, one draw and two defeats – an eerily similar recent record to Brighton.
- 08/01/22: Millwall 1-2 Crystal Palace
- 01/01/22: Crystal Palace 2-3 West Ham
- 28/12/21: Crystal Palace 3-0 Norwich City
- 26/12/21: Spurs 3-0 Crystal Palace
- 15/12/21: Crystal Palace 2-2 Southampton
- 12/12/21: Crystal Palace 3-1 Everton
Last time we met
It was a bit of a strange evening last time. It felt like Brighton had committed a bit of a robbery through Neal Maupay scoring a last minute equaliser as Palace had appeared to be the the better, dominant side on the night.
The stats however told a different story to the impression given to the naked eye. Brighton had more possession and more shots on target than their hosts, so you could even make a case that the Albion deserved to win.
They might have done had Leandro Trossard not decided Selhurst Park was where he wanted to make the first tackle inside his own penalty area of his life. It did not quite go to plan and Zaha scored the resulting penalty.
1-0 to Palace was how it was going to finish until the final seconds. Vicente Guaita shanked a goal kick in the additional minutes he had ironically caused through timewasting, Joel Veltman returned over the Palace defence who let it bounce for Maupay to lash home.
Brighton v Crystal Palace head-to-head
There have been 146 Brighton v Palace matches in 13 competitions stretching back to 1906. Palace lead the head-to-head having won 61 of those games with Brighton sitting on 50 victories.
The Eagles’ domination stems from wartime football, when they triumphed in 11 of the 14 games. If you remove matches played during the conflict, then Palace’s win total drops to 50 compared with Brighton’s 48. Suddenly, the gap is nowhere near as big.
In terms of draws, 35 times the spoils have been shared. That number includes four of the nine matches played in the Albion’s current Premier League spell, making a stalemate the most frequent result in the Premier League.
A reason why Brighton will win
Potter surely cannot go a sixth game without a win against Palace, can he?
A reason why Crystal Palace will win
Because they are utter bastards. If they can find a way to take four points from having three shots on target in 180 minutes, then they can do anything when it comes to facing the Albion.
Brighton v Crystal Palace betting
We are still dining out on the 23/4 win on Alexis Mac Allister to score anytime at Everton. Mac Allister is in really good form at the moment, has notched against Palace before and is still a big price at 23/5.
Remarkably, those are bigger odds than Taylor Richards and Jeremy Sarmiento to get on the scoresheet – one of whom is on loan at Birmingham City and the other is out injured until April.
The draw also makes an attractive option at 47/20, given how often it has occurred over the past five seasons. And everyone knows that betting on the Albion draw has been a licence to print money over the past few years.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
Prediction of will Palace fans be able to get fireworks into the Amex: Yes
Prediction of will Albion fans be able to sneak a bottle lid into the Amex: No
