Happy place Turf Moor? Brighton head to Burnley on opening day

After 525 days, Brighton fans finally have a justifiable reason to crack open a can of San Miguel on a train before 8am again as the trip to Burnley marks the first away game with supporters since March 2020.

Normally, visiting Turf Moor in our annual day out in the 19th century for a bout of homophobic abuse and the occasional dollop of casual racism (how will Clarets fans react to the taking the knee?) is a trip that offers as much appeal as jumping on a bicycle without a seat on.

So starved have we been of the fun and frolics of away days though that even the prospect of Burnley away is a thrilling one. Of course, that will probably have changed dramatically by the time 5pm rolls around and Brighton have lost 1-0 despite winning 4.97 to 0.12 on xG.

But for now football is back. Life seems sort of back to normal. Bring on the San Miguel. Bring on the Albion. Bring on Happy Place Turf Moor, as our favourite contestant in last year’s I’m a Celebrity famously called it.

Burnley this season
Burnley were one of only four teams who ended the 2020-21 season below Brighton in the table, finishing in 17th place. They were two points behind the Albion but still miles clear of dropping into the Championship, 11 points ahead of Fulham who occupied the final relegation place.

With the promoted trio of Norwich City, Watford and Brentford looking stronger than the three sides who went down last year, there is a real danger that Burnley’s six year stay in the top flight might come to an end this time around. Lots of pundits certainly seem to think that is the case.

They are yet to spend any money in the transfer market. Their only incomings have been Jacob Bedeau on a free from Scunthorpe United, Mark Helm on a free from Manchester United and Wayne “Desperate to learn about the Nazis” Hennessey on a free from Crystal Palace.

Burnley do though have one of the shrewdest managers in English football at the helm. Sean Dyche might look like Stone Cold Steve Austin and sound as if he has swallowed half a gravel path, but he consistently gets the Clarets punching above their weight. Writing Burnley off all the time they have Dyche in charge is a foolish game.

Team news
The good news for the Albion is that Chris Wood will miss the game having played in the Olympics for New Zealand. Ever since he spent the 2010-11 League One title winning season on loan at Withdean, Wood has developed a penchant for scoring against Brighton no matter who he has been representing at the time with eight goals against the Albion in the past decade. Him being out makes the Seagulls’ task slightly easier.

Another former Albion player who will not feature is Dale Stephens. The midfielder has endured a wretched time with injuries since moving to Turf Moor a year ago, making only 10 appearances for the Clarets last season.

Burnley will though be boosted by the return of Nick Pope. The England international missed the Euros to have summer surgery and as one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League, he could very well extend the Albion’s xG nightmare into the new campaign.

Brighton have four players currently on the shelf – Danny Welbeck, Tariq Lamptey, Dan Burn and new goalkeeper Kjell Scherpen, meaning Jason Steele having to cancel his tee off time to sit on the bench.

The side that Graham Potter should pick seems kind of obvious for once. Joel Veltman taking over from the departed Ben White in the back three; Pascal Gross on the right, Yves Bissouma and Enock Mwepu in the middle, Solly March on the left; Adam Lallana in the hole and Leandro Trossard and Neal Maupay up top.

We are therefore fully expecting to see Aaron Connolly at left back and Veltman up front or something else batshit crazy.

Key battle
Wood may be absent but Burnley can still call upon another former Brighton striker in Ashley Barnes. He gave Dunk and Webster a real test last time we met at Turf Moor and the bad news for the Albion is that their defensive lynchpins have barely played in pre-season, only getting their first minutes under the belts in last week’s 2-0 defeat to Getafe.

Webster in particular tends to take a few matches to shake away the ring rust after absence as we saw when he returned from eight weeks out injured last season. If either he or Dunk is a little undercooked and as a result end up giving Barnes an inch, you know the Marmite Man will take a mile.

Recent form
Burnley won two and lost four of their six games at the end of the 2020-21 season. Those victories came against already-relegated Fulham and a Wolves side who were going through the motions and had nothing to play for, perhaps knowing that Nuno was weeks away from leaving.

Of more interest is the fact that Burnley could not win at Turf Moor for love nor money. They are currently in the midst of their worst ever run of home form in the top flight, having failed to win any of their past 10 matches. If they do not beat the Albion, then it would equal their club-record of 11 home games without a win.

Two factors should cheer the Clarets coming into this one, however. They will have a crowd roaring them on for the first time in 18 months and Brighton are notoriously good at being obliging opponents when such barren runs need ending.

• 23/05/21: Sheffield United 1-0 Burnley
• 19/05/21: Burnley 0-3 Liverpool
• 15/05/21: Burnley 0-4 The Leeds United
• 10/05/21: Fulham 0-2 Burnley
• 03/10/21: Burnley 1-2 West Ham
• 25/04/21: Wolves 0-4 Burnley

Brighton also picked up two victories from their final six games. A better finish could have seen the Albion secure their highest ever top flight points tally, beat their best finish as a Premier League club so far of 15th and even overhaul Palace to take bragging rights. Instead, they managed to lose against Wolves and Sheffield United. Classic.

• 23/05/21: Arsenal 2-0 Brighton
• 18/05/21: Brighton 3-2 Manchester City
• 15/05/21: Brighton 1-1 West Ham
• 09/05/21: Wolves 2-1 Brighton
• 01/05/21: Brighton 2-0 The Leeds United
• 24/04/21: Sheffield United 1-0 Brighton

Last time we met
Burnley 1-1 Brighton back in February was like that John Travolta and Nicolas Cage movie Face/Off where they swap faces. Burnley abandoned their reputation as a dogged, battling side to play some surprisingly excellent passing football whilst the Albion dug in and defended for their lives to come away with a fine point.

That the Seagulls left Turf Moor with something to show for their efforts was largely down to Robert Sanchez, who produced a string of impressive saves to frustrate the home forwards.

Dunk headed home a Gross corner to give the Albion a first half lead with Johann Berg Gudmundsson equalising eight minutes into the second half.

Brighton tired late on, hardly a surprise given they arrived in Lancashire off the back of two monumental efforts to take six points from Spurs and Liverpool. The final whistle came as a huge relief as it was like the Alamo by the time the clock reached 90.

Burnley v Brighton Head-to-head
There have been 37 previous encounters between Burnley and Brighton and the draw is the most common outcome. 15 of those meetings have ended level, including eight of the past 12. Both sides have 11 wins each.

When someone does manage to claim the three points, it is normally the home side. The Albion have only won three times at Turf Moor this century and Burnley have an identical record of three successes at Withdean and the Amex over the past 20 years.

A reason why Burnley will win
Brighton scored just 18 away goals in the Premier League last season – only Wolves and Sheffield United fared worse. With no new striker signed in the transfer window so far, there is little reason to suggest that will change for the new campaign. Burnley will fancy their chances of keeping a clean sheet and if you do that, you always have a possibility of winning.

A reason why Brighton will win
We have already covered Burnley’s poor recent home form and the reason they have struggled at Turf Moor so much is because of how goal shy they are. The Clarets have a record of just 19 goals in the past 24 Premier League home matches and they are without their leading striker Wood.

This has got 0-0 written all over it, hasn’t it?

Burnley v Brighton betting?
There will not be a game in the Premier League this season that smacks of a draw more than Burnley v Brighton – the spoils being shared is available at a best priced 11/5.

The question then becomes how will it happen? A 0-0 draw comes in at 39/5. If though you fancy it to be an exact repeat of what happened at Turf Moor last season, then have a look at HT/FT meaning that you bet on who will be ahead at the end of each half. Brighton to be winning at half time, draw full time as was the case in 2020-21 is massive at 33/2.

Stick £10 on that and you could pop into an estate agent in Burnley on the way home, buy yourself a three bedroom semi-detached in the town and still have enough for a box of beer for the train home.

Predictions
Prediction of actual score: Burnley 0-0 Brighton
Prediction of xG score: Burnley 0.3 – 3.7 Brighton
Prediction of first drunk meltdown: 3.05pm