Match Preview: Brighton face hard-to-beat Fulham in relegation six pointer

What you are about to read is a match preview for Brighton & Hove Albion’s most important game of the season so far – Fulham at home.

Why does this one matter so much? Firstly, a Brighton win will take Graham Potter’s side eight points clear of the relegation zone. Given that only a few weeks ago the Albion were separated from the bottom three by just a single point, to put such a gap to Fulham would represent quite the turnaround.

Secondly, there is the momentum victory would provide. The Seagulls seem to be in a good place at the minute having beaten Blackpool and The Leeds United, given Manchester City a fright at the Etihad Stadium and come from 3-1 down at half time to draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

A discouraging defeat against one of the three teams below us in the table would undone all the belief that has built – and at an especially bad time with games against Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool up next.

Thirdly, Newcastle United are in freefall. They cannot buy a win for love nor money, Steve Bruce is more hated than a mother-in-law and a Brighton win would allow the Seagulls to overtake the Toon Army, dragging them right into the relegation battle.

Finally, Brighton have to get the monkey of this club record winless home streak off their backs. 13 games have passed since the Seagulls last won a Premier League game at the Amex.

Having already failed to beat Sheffield United, Burnley and West Bromwich Albion in Sussex, Fulham represents one of the best remaining opportunities to finally pick up three points at the Amex. Turning home form around will be crucial to the Albion’s survival chances.

So yeah, you get the gist of why this Brighton v Fulham preview is for the most important match of 2020-21.

Fulham this season
Winners of the Championship play offs always tend to struggle but Fulham faced an even tougher task than normal on their return to the top flight.

The Cottagers did not complete their gruelling promotion season until the start of August. By mid-September, they were kicking off again in the Premier League, which left Scott Parker with less than six weeks to strengthen his squad and re-energise his players for the challenge of top flight football.

Fulham found it hard at first. Since the beginning of December however they have become very difficult to beat, losing just two of their past seven league fixtures.

Parker has switched to five at the back and introduced a counter attacking style which has turned them into a side who look like they could yet avoid what had earlier appeared an inevitable relegation.

The problem Fulham have is that they do not score enough goals. The five games in their past seven that they have avoided defeat in have all ended in draws; whilst the Cottagers are hard to break down, they cannot find a way to put the ball in the back of the net to win matches at the other end.

That makes Brighton v Fulham a clash between two sides who struggle to take their chances. It is little wonder that the last meeting six weeks ago ended in a 0-0 draw at Craven Cottage.

Recent form
The impressive run of form Fulham have been on which we have already mentioned in our preview includes draws with Liverpool, Brighton, Newcastle, Southampton and Spurs. They were brave in defeat too, giving Chelsea and Manchester United plenty to think about in a similar manner to the Albion’s showing at the Etihad Stadium.

A 3-0 FA Cup defeat against Burnley at the weekend is the only blip in eight games. Parker made eight changes with one eye clearly on the trip to the Amex, so that is a result that can be easily overlooked, even if the manner of defeat may have caused some concerns among Fulham followers.

Brighton v Fulham head-to-head
Brighton and Fulham first met in the 1901-02 Southern League Division Two season. That makes Fulham one of the Albion’s oldest opponents; the only other current Football League club they faced in that debut campaign were Wycombe Wanderers.

The sides have met across 13 different competitions on 72 occasions. Fulham lead the head-to-head and by quite a long way having won 38 of the previous matches compared to Brighton’s 25.

There have been just nine draws and five of them have come in the past 14 meetings. December’s 0-0 at Craven Cottage, the 2-2 draw at the Amex in September 2018 three consecutive 0-0s across the FA Cup and the old Division Three in the 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons.

Brighton’s head-to-head record with Fulham

Last six meetings
• Fulham 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 16/12/20)
• Fulham 4-2 Brighton (Premier League, 29/01/19)
• Brighton 2-2 Fulham (Premier League, 01/09/18)
• Fulham 1-2 Brighton (Championship, 02/01/17)
• Brighton 2-1 Fulham (Championship, 26/11/16)
• Brighton 5-0 Fulham (Championship, 15/04/16)

Brighton developed a knack of beating Fulham in the Championship even when playing poorly. The Cottagers battered Chris Hughton’s Seagulls in the 2016-17 season, only for the Albion to play two get out of jail free cards and win both matches 2-1.

The game at Craven Cottage in particular will live long in the memory. David Stockdale saved a penalty against his former team before two goals in the space of 90 seconds from Tomer Hemed and Lewis Dunk took the Albion from trailing 1-0 to winning a game in which they were completely outclassed by the Cottagers for 89 minutes.

Brighton have not managed to repeat the trick in the Premier League, with two draws and a 4-2 Fulham victory in the three top flight clashes between the sides to date.

Team news
Potter named a strong team for the 2-1 win over Blackpool so it will be interesting to see how many of those are retained for the Fulham game – and what sort of side he goes for compared to the starting line up at The Leeds United.

As mentioned elsewhere in this preview, Fulham are hard to break down which will present Brighton with a very different challenge to that which they overcame at Elland Road. Potter may fancy more pace and dynamism, which could mean Yves Bissouma and Percy Tau keeping their places from Saturday.

Brighton are still without the injured Tariq Lamptey and Danny Welbeck and Alireza Jahanbakhsh who is ill. Adam Lallana was due back in training and might be fit enough for a place on the bench.

Fulham’s danger men
The good news for Brighton is that Aleksandar Mitrović has struggled for form and fitness so far in 2020-21. The Albion’s back line has looked about as convincing as Rose West’s defence case at dealing with crosses into the box this season and the Serbian is the exact sort of player who would normally thrive on that, bringing Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster out in a cold sweat.

Mitrović’s problems go some of the way towards explaining Fulham’s troubles in front of goal. Ademola Lookman has the talent to hurt opponents but he too has struggled to put the ball in the back of the net, scoring just three times.

Where Fulham do excel is at the other end. Goalkeeper Alphonse Areola has proven to be one of the most underrated signings of the summer and a major reason as to why the Cottagers have become the division’s draw specialists.

Brighton’s forwards will need to bring the shooting boots that they have often left behind this season if the Albion are to find a way past the Paris Saint-Germain loanee.

The betting value for Brighton v Fulham
All four of Brighton’s matches with clubs who began the day below them in the table have ended in draws. West Bromwich Albion left the Amex with a 1-1 draw, Burnley and Fulham have claimed points from 0-0 stalemates against the Seagulls and 10 man Sheffield United were just six minutes away from a first win in 13 attempts until Welbeck rescued a point to save the Albion’s blushes.

Another draw with Fulham is available at 5/2 which seems decent value for a game neither side will want to lose. Neal Maupay has an excellent scoring record against the Cottagers from his time at Brentford – which made it strange that he was dropped for December’s game in West London – and he is 7/4 to notch anytime.

An interesting subplot
If Brighton were to win and put that eight point gap between themselves and the bottom three, it would be the biggest margin they have been clear of the relegation zone all season.

That they have been sent the campaign so close is a bit of a surprise given how well the Albion played in the opening two months – and it serves as a reminder that the Premier League is very much a results business.

A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Fulham at home
The best teams find a way to win even when they do not play well. Those two matches between Brighton and Fulham in the 2016-17 season have had an airing in this preview already, but it really did feel like a big result in November 2016 when Sam Baldock and Glenn Murray goals gave the Albion a 2-1 Amex win against the Cottagers in spite of a pretty poor performance from Chris Hughton’s side.

A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Fulham at home
There was a ball boy shortage when Fulham came to the Goldstone Ground for an FA Cup second round replay in December 1996. Cue your nine-year-old correspondent being pulled out of the South Stand, given a tracksuit designed for a 15-year-old and told to stand in the freezing cold halfway up the derelict and empty East Terrace to collect any wayward balls.

It took about six months to thaw out afterwards and to make matters worse, Brighton lost on penalties to the Cottagers who were a division lower at the time.

Fulham’s most famous fan
Not only was the King of Pop Michael Jackson Fulham’s most famous fan, but he had a statue outside Craven Cottage. Within a few months of it being taken down in 2014, the Cottagers were relegated from the Premier League. Shamone.

If we are looking for a famous Fulham fan who is alive and did not turn his ranch into a giant children’s theme park, then Richard Osman who hosts Pointless is probably the next best thing.

He is from Haywards Heath too, and although a lot of residents of the Mid Sussex town are very strange, they are still quite sane when compared to MJ.

Prediction
Brighton may have been in good form lately but that home record at the Amex remains a real concern against a Fulham side who are hard to beat – a preview prediction of another tight and cagey draw which finishes 1-1.

BT Sport is broadcasting every Premier League team twice in 10 days including Brighton v Fulham at 7.30pm on Wednesday 27th January.

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