Match Preview: Brighton head to Leicester on a fox hunt
On paper, Leicester City v Brighton & Hove Albion looks like a home banker – and you probably will not find many match preview pieces predicting anything other than a Foxes win.
Perhaps the mulled wine has been flowing a little too freely at WAB Towers this weekend as there is a sneaky suspicion doing the rounds that the Albion could pick up something from the King Power Stadium. Here’s why…
Leicester City this season
Leicester have been enjoying an excellent season under Brendan Rodgers and are currently fourth in the table, three points behind leaders Tottenham Hotspur. This is what makes our confidence of a Brighton result appear completely mad.
But this lofty position has largely been built on what has happened away from the King Power. The Foxes have won just twice at home all season, beating Burnley 4-2 back in September and knocking over Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 in the Mark McGhee Derby last month. West Ham United, Aston Villa and Fulham have all left Leicester with three points so far in 2020-21.
Then there is Leicester’s set piece problem. We joined Leicester Till I Die for a video preview of the game on Wednesday night which involved a lively debate about which team was the shittest at corners and free kicks.
Turns out that the Foxes are as terrible as Brighton at both defending set pieces but more pertinently, attacking them. Playing opponents who will not take advantage of the fact that the Albion’s marking is as convincing as Boris Johnson’s oven ready Brexit deal means that we might not add to the 11 goals already conceded this season from such scenarios, which in turn must increase the Seagulls’ chances of coming home with something to show for their efforts.
Recent form
Leicester’s most impressive run of results saw them win six games in all competitions in November, but since that sequence ended with a heavy defeat against Liverpool they have won just once in the league and that required a last minute Jamie Vardy goal to beat rock bottom Sheffield United.
This preview has already detailed the troubles Leicester have had at home – and it is also worth pointing out that Brighton have been miles better away from the Amex than they have at home.
Taylor Swift shocking the world with the release of Evermore earlier in the week means that she has now put out more albums in 2020 than Brighton have won home games this year.
It has been a different story on the road, however. Last time the Albion headed out on their travels, they beat fifth place Aston Villa on their own patch. The only other Premier League win which Graham Potter has managed to deliver in 2020-21 came at Newcastle United.
One team who have struggled at home this season meets another team who are actually quite good away from home. There is reason number two to be quietly confident.
Brighton v Leicester City head-to-head
Despite both clubs having existed for a bloody long time, it was not until 1978 that Brighton and Leicester met in a league match. There were a handful of meetings through the 1980s and 1990s, but it is only since the turn of the century that we have become regular foes.
There have been 35 games in total and it is all pretty even. The Albion have won 13, Leicester 15 with seven draws rounding things off. Rarely is a meeting between Seagulls and Foxes dull.
Since 1994, Jimmy Case has been sent off for being deaf; Leicester supporters did not realise they had scored a winner because the fog at Withdean was so thick; the Albion have had to borrow Leicester’s away kit because they rocked up in the East Midlands with a blue away kit; and hundreds of Brighton supporters walked out of Withdean at half time with the Foxes winning 2-0, those who left missing a miraculous comeback as Micky Adams’ side recovered to win 3-2.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Leicester City
Last six meetings
• Leicester City 0-0 Brighton (Championship, 23/06/20)
• Brighton 0-2 Leicester City (Premier League, 23/11/19)
• Leicester City 2-1 Brighton (Premier League, 26/02/19)
• Brighton 1-1 Leicester City (Premier League, 24/11/18)
• Brighton 0-2 Leicester City (Premier League, 31/03/18)
• Leicester City 2-0 Brighton (Premier League, 19/08/17)
There are five teams who Brighton have faced in every Premier League season since winning promotion in 2017 but never beaten. Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Southampton and Leicester.
The June trip to the King Power was the Albion’s best opportunity to get that monkey off their back. It finished 0-0 and was a game that will forever be remembered as Tariq Lamptey’s outstanding Brighton debut – but it could have been so much better had Neal Maupay not seen his first half penalty saved by Kasper Schmeichel.
Team news
Here comes match preview reason number three to think that Brighton could get a result at Leicester – the Foxes’ injury list. Rodgers has seen his defensive options decimated in recent weeks, which goes part of the way towards explaining why they were winless in their four fixtures before Vardy’s last minute heroics at Bramall Lane.
A makeshift back three – Rodgers prefers a four but his numbers have been so decimated that he has switched to a three – could afford Brighton plenty of opportunities. If the Albion can stick some in the back of the net – easier said than done as we know all too well – then who knows what might happen?
Potter in contrast appears to have a squad with a pretty clean bill of health. What he does with it is, as always, anyone’s guess.
Ben White replacing Adam Webster in defence with Steve Alzate or Davy Propper joining Yves Bissouma in midfield would be a good start, but knowing Potter he will probably start Jason Steele up top and Neal Maupay at centre half.
Leicester City’s danger men
Vardy is the obvious one to pick out but Schmeichel in goal has a ridiculously good record against the Albion, especially when it comes to saving penalties.
We have already brought up in this match preview that harrowing June miss from Maupay when Brighton last went to Leicester. Schmeichel also saved from Glenn Murray at the Amex in the 2017-18 season and there was that wonderful moment in the 2012-13 season when Ashley Barnes saw his spot kick kept out by Schmeichel and then managed to defy all the known laws of geometry by blazing the rebound over from four yards.
The Foxes won that clash 1-0 with Tomasz Kuszczak not holding his feelings back at the final whistle as him and Barnes nearly had a punch up on the pitch. Fingers crossed we do not see Gross and Maty Ryan engaged in fisticuffs at the King Power on this occasion.
The betting value for Leicester City v Brighton
With both sides having questionable defensive records, goals seem likely. You can back over 2.5 goals at evens, which is a very amicable price when you consider that the only Brighton away game which has had less than three goals so far this season was Crystal Palace. Had the Albion not squandered so many of their 20 shots, that game too would have passed the magic 2.5 mark.
An interesting subplot
Leicester were heavily linked with Lewis Dunk in the summer of 2018 following Harry Maguire’s departure to Manchester United. They failed to land the Albion captain and to be fair, that did not look that much of a problem last season.
You have to wonder though with the Foxes’ recent defensive problems whether Rodgers is not regretting not taking Dunk to the King Power. If he is not, then let us hope that Dunk gives Leicester reason to rue him on this occasion.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Leicester City away
We love a kit cock up and they do not come much bigger than having to borrow Leicester’s away kit because you have turned up at the King Power Stadium with the intention of wearing blue.
The football that night was not bad either. The Foxes would go onto win the League One title by some distance come the end of the campaign and yet the Albion came away with a very valuable 0-0 draw.
It was one of the best results of Micky Adams second reign. John Sullivan was superb in goal and even Jason Jarrett and Chris Birchall looked like footballers rather than a couple of blokes who were happy to get paid handsomely to pratt around whilst Brighton slid into League Two.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Leicester City away
One of the first indications that Chris Hughton was starting to run out of ideas came when Gaetan Bong and Jurgen Locadia were stood over a free kick in a promising position 30 yards out from goal away at Leicester in February 2019.
Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy trotted forward looking to get on the end of a delivery and add to their 10 combined goals from such situations in the 2018-19 season.
Instead, Locadia twatted the ball straight out of play. It says much about how rubbish Brighton have been from set pieces so far in 2020-21 that Locadia’s free kick was still better than some of what we have seen this year.
Leicester City’s most famous fan
Richard III was such a big fan of Leicester that he opted to be buried under a carpark in the city centre to be close to his favourite team.
Supporters do not come much more famous than a former king of England who (allegedly) organised the murder of his two nephews and had an entire Shakespeare play dedicated to him.
Prediction
After using the past 1500 odd words of this match preview to state the case for Brighton coming away from Leicester with something, what is the WAB prediction? We are going with a 2-1 win. Now pass us some more mulled wine…
