Match Preview: Brighton look to heap more Molineux misery on Wolves
At risk of putting a massive jinx on Wolves v Brighton via this match preview, the Albion could not have wished for a kinder fixture for mathematically securing Premier League survival.
For reasons unknown, Wolverhampton Wanderers are opponents who Brighton rarely lose to. Never before have the Albion tasted defeat in a top flight game against the Old Gold.
Wolves have beaten Brighton only four times in the league in 33 attempts and you have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the home side picked up three points from the Seagulls at Molineux.
Even the bookmakers acknowledge the Albion’s dominance in the fixture with most making the visitors favourites to win according to rowdie.co.uk.
If Graham Potter can mastermind the victory over Nuno that the odds suggest will happen, then Brighton will play top division football for a record-breaking fifth successive year in 2021-22, moving to within a point of their best Premier League points tally. Everything is shaping up for a super Sunday in the West Midlands.
Wolves this season
This has been Wolves’ most disappointing season since returning to the Premier League in 2018 as they look set to miss out on a top 10 finish for the first time in their current top flight spell.
There are numerous reasons for this. They sold two key players last summer in Diogo Jota and Matt Doherty to Liverpool and Spurs respectively and thought they could replace them with younger players.
Although an admirable strategy, that has not worked out as well as Wolves hoped it would – a lesson perhaps for Brighton supporters who believe that Jakub Moder, Moises Caicedo or Leo Ostigard will prove like-for-like replacements in the event of Yves Bissouma and Ben White being flogged.
Injuries have not helped either. Wolves have lost key players such as Jonny, Willy Boly, Pedro Neto and Raul Jimenez for large chunks of the season, exposing their lack of squad depth.
The feeling around Molineux is that if Wolves are to challenge for European football again next season, they need to do some serious strengthening.
Whether Nuno will be around to do lead that is a big question mark hanging over the club. Like Graham Potter, he has been linked with the Spurs job and after a difficult year both professionally and personally, the Wolves boss might be seriously tempted by a fresh challenge and a change of scenery should Daniel Levy come knocking.
Recent form
Another reason our match preview is confident of Brighton continuing their excellent record against Wolves is because the Old Gold’s season has been over for some time.
Wolves are not going to go down and they are someway adrift of European football, leaving their recent fixtures as dead rubbers. That is reflected in the form guide, which shows just two victories from their past nine matches – both 1-0 successes over already doomed Sheffield United and seemingly doomed Fulham.
Two weeks ago saw Burnley win 4-0 at Molineux. In Wolves’ previous outing, Nuno named a very young and experimental side for a 1-1 derby day draw with West Brom.
If he continues to go down the weakened team route with one eye on giving inexperienced players game time, then a full strength Albion side performing similarly to how they did in last weekend’s 2-0 win over 1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up The Leeds United would be in a very good position to take advantage.
Brighton v Wolves head-to-head
So excited are we by the head-to-head record between Brighton and Wolves that we have already covered it in our match preview introduction.
Let us have another reminder though of the Albion’s extraordinary record of 15 wins, 14 draws and only six defeats from 35 previous matches across all competitions.
You have to go back to New Year’s Day 2016 to find the last Wolves win over Brighton. It finished 1-0 to the visitors and in many ways resembled the sort of thing you see at Waterhall on a Sunday morning with James Wilson throwing up on the pitch before the game and the Albion scoring a comedy own goal through Connor Goldson.
The last Wolves win at Molineux in the fixture came on the penultimate weekend of the 2005-06 season. Brighton had already been relegated from the Championship when the Old Gold squeaked a 1-0 victory over Mark McGhee’s side.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Wolverhampton Wanderers
Last six meetings
• Brighton 3-3 Wolverhampton Wanderers (Premier League, 02/01/21)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 07/03/20)
• Brighton 2-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers (Premier League, 08/12/19)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 20/04/19)
• Brighton 1-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers (Premier League, 27/10/18)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 Brighton (Championship, 14/04/17)
Wolves really should have improved their barren record the last time the sides met at the Amex. Brighton were utterly ghastly in the first half at the Amex back in January with the Old Gold 3-1 ahead and looking comfortable.
The pressure on Graham Potter going into the break was the most intense it has ever been. Two wins from 17 matches represented Brighton’s worst ever start to a top flight season with some supporters beginning to question whether he was the right man for the job.
Whatever Potter said during the interval clearly had the desired impact. Neal Maupay and Lewis Dunk helped salvage a 3-3 draw which proved to be the turning point in the Albion’s season as a much improved second half of the campaign leaves the Seagulls virtually safe from relegation with four games still to play.
Team news
As our match preview has already noted, Nuno could well give some of his fringe players a run out for the second week running with Wolves having nothing to play for.
The manner of last week’s victory over The Leeds United means that Potter will surely stick with the same starting XI. There will be a time for the Brighton boss to carry out experimentation of his own with some younger players, but he will want to guarantee survival before doing so.
Wolves’ key players
Ruben Neves has been the Old Gold’s main spark, weighing in with five goals from 40 appearances in central midfield. Most players who enjoy outstanding seasons in the Championship as the player head and shoulders above anybody else struggle to step up to the Premier League – see Adel Taarabt and our own Anthony Knockaert – so it says much about Neves’ ability that he has been a consistent top flight performer for three seasons now.
A special mention must also go to goalkeeper Rui Patricio. Not only is he talented, but he also wears the number 11 shirt which is the sort of nonsense we love over here at WAB Towers.
The betting value for Wolves v Brighton
Our match preview has already highlighted the fact that the bookies are leaning towards a Brighton win over Wolves. Should you wish to play it a little more sensibly, then the draw at 23/10 is good value.
Recent matches at Molineux have tended to sit on the dull side of the fence with the past two ending 0-0. You have to go back to a thrilling 3-3 draw under Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named in the 2012-13 season to find the last time that there were over 2.5 goals when Wolves and Brighton meet in the West Midlands.
Two goals or less is priced up at 5/8. Under 1.5 goals is available at 15/8 and looks a much better price given that Wolves do not score many, Brighton do not score many and Robert Sanchez has been a clean sheet keeping machine since his elevation to the number one jersey in December.
An interesting subplot
If Spurs are genuinely casting an eye over Potter and Nuno, then this could almost be an audition for who sits in the dugout at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium next season.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Wolves away
Knockaert being simply box office when scoring twice on Good Friday 2017 to take Brighton one step closer to promotion to the Premier League. One of the great Albion away days.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Wolves away
For reasons unknown, trips to Wolves earlier in the 21st century always seemed to come with trouble. That 2012-13 season visit saw fights break out around Molineux between rival fans after the game, which was not nice to see – especially if you happened to be the member of the WAB travelling party who was throwing up in a bush on a roundabout in the middle of it all.
Wolves’ most famous fan
Not a famous fan, but Wolfie the Wolf must be the best mascot in the country. Who can possibly forget the time he managed to get into a genuine punch up on the pitch with three little pigs at Bristol City back in the 1990s?
Prediction
This has been a bold match preview full of reasons why Brighton can beat Wolves. A 1-0 Albion win and Premier League survival assured would do very nicely.
