Match Preview: Brighton v Aston Villa
As we sit here to write this Brighton v Aston Villa match preview, it’s hard not to feel that the Albion’s next four matches are going to be critical to our future as a Premier League club and the Graham Potter era overall.
Villa. Bournemouth. Watford. West Ham United. Four clubs separated by just four points. Come out of those fixtures with eight plus points on the board and replacing Chris Hughton with Potter will look like the masterstroke that we all hoped it would be.
Pick up just one or two though and we’ll be right in the brown stuff. Suddenly, all those pundits and supporters of other clubs who were desperately hoping we’d go down as punishment for sacking a solid if unspectacular boss might yet get their wish.
We said last season that if Brighton couldn’t beat Watford, Burnley, Huddersfield Town, Southampton, Bournemouth, Cardiff City and Newcastle United at home in the second half of the season then we deserved to go down.
Only one of those opponents were vanquished. With these ‘easy’ fixtures coming up, it’s a similar scenario this time around. Crunch time for Potter and the Albion.
A brief history of Aston Villa
In the early days of English football, Aston Villa were one of the finest teams in the land. They won six of the first 12 Football League titles with their dominance of the game being halted by – and you probably won’t believe this – Brighton and Hove Albion.
Yes, it was the Albion as Southern League champions who pulled off an almighty shock when defeating Football League champions Villa 1-0 in the Charity Shield of 1910. That gave Brighton the unofficial title of Champions of England and it provided a preview of the future for Aston Villa as their trophy-laden days came to an end.
They’ve only won one league title since – in the 1980-81 season – although they did follow that up by winning the European Cup the following year. Recent times in particular have been hard for Villa and this is their first top flight campaign since the 2015-16 season.
Aston Villa this season
Having seen Fulham win the Championship play off final, throw millions and millions of pounds at a load of players and then get relegated due to tearing up everything that was good about their promotion winning team, Villa decided to take virtually the same approach.
It does seems to be working out slightly better for Villa than it did for the Cottagers though for a number of reasons. One is that they haven’t got rid of their hugely popular promotion winning manager at the first sign of trouble. Dean Smith has held onto his job – as any sane person would think he should – and with that comes the sort of stability that Fulham lacked as they lurched from Slaviša Jokanović to Claudio Ranieri to Scott Parker.
Another is that a large number of Villa’s expensive acquisitions were in fact loan players that they turned into permanent signings, such as England international (LOL) Tyrone Mings. And actually, some of their recruitment has been very smart. Picking up England’s number two goalkeeper Tom Heaton from Burnley for £8m was an astounding piece of business.
Villa’s biggest problem right now is injuries. Heaton is out for the season, as is striker Wesley. Losing your number one goalkeeper and leading marksman for half a campaign is a blow that would undermine the chances of success of any side in the Premier League and unless Smith can suitably replace them, then Villa could be in trouble. He’s made a start on the goalkeeper front at least with Pepe Reina set to make his debut at the Amex.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Aston Villa
Charity Shield aside, Brighton’s head-to-head record with Aston Villa is ghastly. In 24 meetings, the Albion have only won on four previous occasions.
Just one of those has come in the top flight, which also happens to be our most recent victory in the fixture, a 1-0 success which came in Villa’s 1980-81 title winning season. Michael Robinson scored the only goal of the game on a memorable December afternoon at the Goldstone.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Aston Villa
Last six meetings
• Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton (Premier League, 19/10/19)
• Brighton 1-3 Aston Villa (League Cup Third Round, 25/09/19)
• Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton (Championship, 07/05/17)
• Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa (Championship, 18/11/16)
• Aston Villa 3-2 Brighton (FA Cup Fourth Round, 23/01/10)
• Brighton 0-0 Aston Villa (Division One, 26/03/83)
This will be the third meeting of the season between Brighton and Villa with Villa winning both so far. Potter took the controverisal decision to field the Albion’s Under 14s squad in the League Cup Third Round meeting at the Amex in September. Unsurprisingly, the visitors ran out 3-1 winners.
One month later and the sides met at Villa Park in the league. Things were going quite swimmingly until Aaron Mooy lost his mind as well as his hair, picking up two stupid bookings in the space of five minutes with just half an hour played.
It looked like the Albion still might escape with a point right up until the final seconds when some horrific game management gifted Villa a goal. Now, we’re all for Potter’s positive approach to the game but when you’re about to pick up an impressive draw away from having played for an hour with 10 men, you should just take it.
The Albion didn’t. Pascal Gross tried to launch one last futile attack, smashing the ball 60 yards down the pitch. Solly March couldn’t get on the end of it, possession was lost and Villa swept down the other end to score a winner with the last kick.
Brighton had given us a sneak preview of their inability to see out a game in the home draw with Burnley a month previously but to lose to Aston Villa in such a manner was arguably even worse.
Team news
Mooy had a lot of making up to do after his indiscretion in the Midlands but blimey, has he done it. Since returning from the suspension he picked up that day, the Australian midfield has been one of the Albion’s best players.
Without him at Everton last week, the Seagulls hardly created an opportunity until the final 20 minutes. They recorded under 40% possession in the first half for what must be the first time under Potter in an all round limp performance. The best thing therefore that you’ll read in this match preview – and we do have a joke about Iran shooting down planes to come – is that Mooy will be fit for Brighton versus Aston Villa.
Less good is the news that Shane Duffy could miss the fixture. If Potter persists with three at the back, we suddenly look very light in that department. Dan Burn is also out, leaving just Adam Webster, Lewis Dunk and Leon Balogun as senior centre back options.
Given that Balogun looked like he’d won a corn flake competition to be a professional footballer for the day in the FA Cup defeat to Sheffield Wednesday, we’d be about as comfortable seeing him start a Premier League game as we would stepping on a flight our of Tehran Airport. Should Potter feel the same way, then we could see a return to 4-2-2-2 or 4-3-3.
Aston Villa’s key players
Jack Grealish may come across as a total prick but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s one of the best players outside of the top six. He also has an excellent record against the Albion, having scored in each of his last three appearances.
That impressive run of form includes the 25 yard effort that David Stockdale let slip through his legs on the final day of the 2016-17 season, which cost Hughton’s side the Championship title. Cheers, Dave.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Aston Villa at home
In our Brighton supporting lifetime, we’ve only ever played Villa twice at home. One of those was a 1-1 draw on a Friday night in November, after which we ended up in Vodka Revs of all places until 3am. The other saw the Albion field a team so young that most of them couldn’t even buy a lottery ticket legally. It’s slim pickings.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Aston Villa at home
As above.
Our favourite player to play for Brighton and Aston Villa
Signing one-cap England wonder Lee Hendrie on-loan from Derby County towards the end of the 2009-10 season seemed like a massive deal at the time. Hendrie had begun his career with Villa, playing over 250 times for the club. His career record post-Brighton makes for fantastic reading with the likes of Indonesian club Bandung, Daventry Town, Chasetown, Corby Town and Basford United. Clearly, a bloke who just loved playing football.
What we like about Aston Villa
Villa Park is a proper football stadium full of proper football supporters.
Prediction
Brighton have been below par in their last two performances and we’re yet to have three bad games in a row under Potter. As a result, we’re going for a surprisingly positive 2-1 to the Albion, meaning that we can all get back to talking about European tours and trips to Azerbaijan in the Europa League rather than worrying about whether Thameslink still do a group save ticket to Luton.
