Match Preview: Jack Grealish FC v Brighton & Hove Albion
We need to talk about Jack Grealish. Most Premier League clubs struggle to deal with the threat of the Aston Villa star man, but Brighton & Hove Albion find it doubly difficult as our match preview is going to explain.
Grealish has four goals in his last four appearances against the Albion. There is something about facing Brighton that seems to bring out the very best in the Villa captain, a fact that is made doubly troubling given that he is currently in the form of his life.
He was England’s best player in the November internationals. He has three goals and six assists to his name in his past five Premier League appearances. And he is the main reason why Villa are three points off top spot with a game in hand.
Graham Potter needs to devise a way to stop Grealish if Brighton are to have any hope of winning at Villa Park for the first time. Otherwise, it could be another long afternoon for the Albion.
Aston Vila this season
Aston Villa have essentially done what Brighton tried to do in the 2018-19 season but actually look like making a success of it. After Chris Hughton kept the Albion in the Premier League at the end of our first year in the top flight, the club then spent £60 million with the aim of kicking the team onto the next level.
Instead, Brighton went backwards and were involved in a long, hard slog against relegation. Results wise, it has never been plain sailing since and in 2020, Brighton have won just four games out of 26.
Compare that to Villa. They too went big in the transfer market after surviving on their Premier League return, signing the likes of Ollie Watkins from Brentford, Emiliano Martínez from Arsenal and Ross Barkley from Chelsea.
Unlike the Albion, Dean Smith and his recruitment team have got their acquisitions spot on. Villa have won five times out of seven since September alone, including a stunning 7-2 victory against champions Liverpool.
What makes this success even more frustrating from an Albion point of view is that we were heavily linked with both Watkins and Martinez in the summer.
Given that Brighton rarely give opponents an opportunity on goal – which means most of on-target efforts are flying in – and we have taken the third most shots of any team in the league so far, what difference could a top class goalkeeper and a clinical striker have made to this Albion squad? A look at Villa’s lofty position offers some indication.
Recent form
In this weird and whacky Premier League campaign, the home form of Aston Villa at least offers one crumb of comfort in our preview of Brighton & Hove Albion’s trip to the Second City.
Villa might be flying high in the table, but it is largely based on what they have done on the road where they remain unbeaten. They have lost their two most recent matches at Villa Park to The Leeds United and Southampton which, coupled with the fact Brighton are decent on the road, gives hope that this may not be a straightforward result for the hosts.
If you include Villa’s shock Carabao Cup exit to Stoke City, they have actually lost three of their last six – and all of those defeats have come at home.
Brighton v Aston Villa head-to-head
This is turning into quite the bipolar match preview for Brighton v Aston Villa. We started off with saying the Albion had no chance given Grealish’s form and Villa’s start to the season; then we veered to Villa not actually being that good in recent home games; and now we need to point out the Seagulls have never won at Villa Park before.
So if Brighton are to triumph against Villa, then Potter’s squad will be writing their own small piece of history. The closest any Albion side has come to victory there came on the final day of the 2016-17 season when the Championship title looked in the bag until David Stockdale left a 30 yard shot squirm through his legs in the last minute. No prizes for guessing that Grealish was the man scoring.
Overall, Brighton have won just four out their 25 matches against Villa. The most recent of those came on December 20th 1980 when Michael Robinson scored the only goal of the game in a 1-0 Goldstone Ground win against the team who ended the season as English champions. There have been eight draws and 13 Villa wins.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Aston Villa
Last six meetings
• Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa (Premier League, 18/01/20)
• Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton (Premier League, 19/10/19)
• Brighton 1-3 Aston Villa (League Cup Third Round, 25/09/19)
• Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton (Championship, 07/05/17)
• Brighton 1-1 Aston Villa (Championship, 18/11/16)
• Aston Villa 3-2 Brighton (FA Cup Fourth Round, 23/01/10)
That Robinson-delivered last Brighton win over Villa took place 11 matches ago. Last season’s three meetings might have delivered more than a solitary draw were it not for some naïve management on the part of Potter.
In the Carabao Cup, the Brighton boss threw away the game by sending out the Under 12s. In the Premier League clash at Villa Park, the Albion were looking good for an impressive point having played for over an hour with 10 men until they decided to try and find a winner in the 94th minute.
The attack broke down, Villa swept up the other end and Matt Targett snatched for the hosts right at the death when Brighton just needed to keep the ball and see the game out for a hard-earned draw.
Villa’s visit to the Amex in January turned out to be the most frustrating of the lot. Brighton were 1-0 ahead and looking good whilst Grealish had been kept very quiet by Steve Alzate. That was until Potter decided to embark on a game of positional musical chairs with 20 minutes to go.
Off went striker Aaron Connolly and on came Martin Montoya at right back. Alzate moved into midfield. Aaron Mooy was pushed up front alongside Neal Maupay. Within seven minutes of all this fiddling, Grealish escaped Montoya to find an equaliser for the visitors.
Let us hope that Potter has actually learned from that.
Team news
Potter used his Brighton v Aston Villa preview press conference to confirm that Lewis Dunk would return to the starting XI after completing his three match ban for that wonderful assault on Gary Cahill at Crystal Palace.
Who he comes in for is less clear. Joel Veltman would be the obvious candidate but he has not put a foot wrong whilst deputising, certainly compared to Adam Webster who has been below par in the last few weeks.
Webster is a Potter favourite however and so there seems more chance of the Titanic suddenly turning up in New York than there does of Webster being dropped.
The solution might lie in pushing Ben White into midfield to accommodate Dunk, Webster and Veltman as a back three. This would allow White to carry out a man marking job on one of Grealish or Barkley; if Brighton can keep them quiet, their chances of success will be significantly increased.
Aston Villa’s danger men
Barkley creates goals, Watkins scores goals, Grealish creates and scores goals. Take your pick.
The betting value for Aston Villa v Brighton
Not sure if we have mentioned it in this match preview, but Jack Grealish has four goals in his last four games against Brighton. He is a best priced 11/4 to score at Villa Park.
If you want to have an Albion-based punt, then should White line up in midfield he might be worth a pound in the anytime goal scorer market at 17/1.
An interesting subplot
Since Villa won promotion to the Premier League in 2019, they and Brighton seem to have done battle for the same pool of players. As already noted, Martinez and Watkins were linked with moves to the Albion whilst Villa were desperate to sign Neal Maupay last summer, only for the Frenchman to opt for a move from Brentford to the Amex.
It is always interesting when an individual comes up against a club who wanted to make him theirs. Will any of those players make their one-time admirers regret not doing more to sign them?
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Aston Villa away
Back in the 2000s, Brighton very rarely made it far enough in the FA Cup to draw a Premier League side. That all changed in the 2009-10 season when Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named led the Albion all the way to the fourth round of the competition, where they were given a trip to Martin O’Neill’s outstanding Villa side.
6,229 supporters made the journey to Birmingham – more than we averaged at Withdean that season – to see Brighton give Villa a real fright before succumbing to a 3-2 defeat. It was a brilliant day out and another sign that the Albion were about to go places on the pitch with Poyet You Know Who in charge.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Aston Villa away
Seeing Stockdale’s legs wide open like someone on One Born Every Minute as the Championship title was suddenly gifted to Newcastle United. Only Brighton could throw away a seven point lead with three games to go in such ridiculous fashion.
Aston Villa’s most famous fan
It does not get much more famous than the future king of England. The Duke of Cambridge is known to be Villa mad for reasons that we do not fully understand.
Beats David Cameron (former Prime Minister rather than one-time Brighton centre forward) who claimed to be a Villa fan but got them confused with West Ham United as both wore the same colours.
Prediction
Despite using the majority of this match preview to highlight what a difficult task Brighton face away at Aston Villa, we are opting for a draw. Of course Grealish is scoring, but it finishes 1-1.
