Match Preview: No dead rubber for Brighton at Arsenal in season finale

Before Brighton pulled off that stunning win over Manchester City on Tuesday night, it looked like we would be writing a match preview for a dead rubber as the Seagulls travelled to Arsenal for their final game of the 2020-21 season.

An unexpected three points has changed all that. Now the trip to the Emirates presents an opportunity for the Albion to secure a record top flight points total in the event of a draw.

Even more enticing is that if Brighton win in North London, then they can potentially finish above Crystal Palace for the first time in the Premier League, should the Eagles lose at Liverpool.

Arsenal too have plenty to play for. Despite having an absolutely shocking season by their standards, victory over the Albion with results going in their favour could still see the Gunners sneak a Europa League spot and overtake Spurs in the table.

Seeing as finishing above their hated rivals seems to count for more than actual trophies these days, that is something the fans returning to the Emirates will be desperate to see.

Arsenal this season
No matter what happens between Arsenal and Brighton, the Gunners are already guaranteed their lowest finish since 1996. Having hounded Arsene Wenger and then Unai Emery out, their fans have belatedly started to realise that maybe the problem lies not with the manager but at board level.

There is a touch of the Shakespeares about this fall from grace. It is a tragedy that a footballing institution such as The Arsenal have been allowed to get into such a mess… but there has been plenty of comedy along the way for those of us watching from the outside, provided by a combination of AFTV and events such as the much-mocked Emery returning to knock the Gunners out of Europe with Villarreal.

Much of the scorn towards the idea of a European Super League came from Arsenal’s involvement and their description of themselves as ‘elite’ at the same time as Leicester City, West Ham United and Everton all sat miles above them in the Premier League table.

The ESL debacle does at least seem to have stimulated Gunners fans into doing something about their ownership. Big protests have followed against Stan Kroenke and for the good of English football, it has to be hoped that the pressure keeps cranking up as American owners whose overriding priority is profit before anything else are bad news for the game.

Recent form
Should we mention again that Brighton beat Manchester City 3-2 on Tuesday night? Yes, why not – and there are more reasons than just defeating the champions for the Albion to be buoyant coming into this one.

Two wins and two draws from the past six matches (we won’t mention the defeats came against out-of-form Wolves and already relegated Sheffield United) is a decent run form.

The Seagulls have also enjoyed their best ever campaign in terms of results against the greedy ESL six. Liverpool, Spurs and City have all been beaten, there was a first ever away point from Chelsea and Manchester United had to rely on some seriously bent refereeing to secure an unjust six points from Brighton.

There is nothing to fear from a trip to face an Arsenal side who have won only one of their past seven home games in all competitions – and that was against West Brom.

Brighton v Arsenal head-to-head
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Arsenal is one of their most interesting against any opponent for the vastly contrasting results depending on which era and competitions you look at.

Overall, there have been 34 previous meetings. The Gunners are the dominant force as you would expect, winning 23 of those compared to Brighton’s six. Five matches have ended in draws so this is not one you will want on your pools coupon.

Take away wartime football, FA Cup and League Cup and suddenly the picture becomes much more rosy. If this were an Arsenal v Brighton preview focussing solely on what has happened in the top flight between the clubs, then Brighton have five wins, Arsenal seven with three draws. Given that the Albion have never come remotely close to finishing above Arsenal in the table, that is a very decent return.

Brighton’s head-to-head record with Arsenal

Last six meetings
• Brighton 0-1 Arsenal (Premier League, 29/12/20)
• Brighton 2-1 Arsenal (Premier League, 20/06/20)
• Arsenal 1-2 Brighton (Premier League, 05/12/19)
• Arsenal 1-1 Brighton (Premier League, 05/05/19)
• Brighton 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League, 26/12/18)
• Brighton 2-1 Arsenal (Premier League, 04/03/18)

The main reason for that head-to-head record looking so good from a Brighton point of view is because of what has happened in the Albion’s current spell as a top flight club.

Arsenal have only beaten the Seagulls twice in seven attempts so far. The most recent of those came in December and was helped by a team selection that suggested Graham Potter had indulged in far too much brandy over the Christmas period.

Potter named no recognised striker in his starting XI despite the fact the Gunners arrived in Sussex below Brighton in the table and in the midst of a terrible run of form.

Alexis Mac Allister and Alireza Jahanbakhsh formed a makeshift front two. Bernardo made his first Premier League start of the season whilst Solly March, Ben White, Neal Maupay, Leandro Trossard and Danny Welbeck were all on the bench.

Maupay’s absence was particularly disappointing as he tends to love playing against Arsenal and we had tipped him up to be a Brighton scorer at a healthy price in our match preview.

That Arsenal only scraped a 1-0 win against the stiffs bodes well for this time around, presuming Potter leaves his selection roulette wheel at home and puts out a much stronger side to test the hosts.

Team news
Lewis Dunk is back from suspension although whoever makes way for the Brighton captain will be harshly done by following the heroics against Manchester City.

Big Dan Burn could be the man to drop out despite causing Pep Guardiola to tear his hair out when scoring the winner on Tuesday night. Alternatively, Burn might be deployed at left wing back, in which case it would be Jakub Moder stepping down to the bench.

Potter also faces a dilemma up front. Maupay is still suspended after his ban was extended for calling Jon Moss “a f**king joke” following the 2-1 defeat at Wolves and with Welbeck ruled out through injury, the Albion look very light in attack.

Leandro Trossard and Alireza Jahanbakhsh – neither of whom is a natural centre forward – played for over an hour of the City game together. Trossard has at least played their semi-regularly this season, although nearly always as a second striker alongside Maupay or Welbeck.

The obvious choice would be to stick with that duo, although there is a case for using the absence of any sort of hold up player as a reason to give Andi Zeqiri a start, especially following his shock call up to the Swiss national squad ahead of Euro 2020 (in 2021).

Arsenal’s key players
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang would normally feature highly in this section of our Arsenal v Brighton preview but the decline at the Emirates this season has been such that they have managed to turn one of the world’s best strikers into a player who has barely scraped double figures. Instead, it is Alexandre Lacazette who leads the scoring charts with 13.

Kieran Tierney has been the Gunners best player in 2020-21 and Mikel Arteta does at least have some promising young talents coming through, including Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka.

The betting value for Arsenal v Brighton
Brighton are as big as 9/2 in places, which is an astonishingly good price given that we have just beaten Man City, only lost twice to Arsenal in the Premier League and tend to play better against technically good sides like the Gunners.

An interesting subplot
We seem to have said this in about half of the match preview pieces we have written in recent weeks, but Arsenal v Brighton is a chance for Yves Bissouma to audition in front of a club interested in securing his services for next season.

Arsenal appeared to be leading the way in January with Bissouma rumoured to have told his agent that the Emirates would be his preferred destination for the next stage of his career. The £25 million – £30 million being bandied about at the time however was a bigger insult than the Line of Duty finale.

If Arsenal – or any other club for that matter – want Bissouma then they will need to pay a bigger fee than that. A move to the Gunners in their current state would hardly be a big step forward for Bissouma either, especially when Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp are known admirers of the midfielder.

A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Arsenal away
December 2019’s 2-1 victory at Arsenal gave Brighton their first win away at one of the European Super League elite clubs. That was a special moment in North London, but the look on the faces of the Emirates regulars seven months earlier when Brighton held them to a 1-1 draw which denied the Gunners a place in the top four was even better.

Who enjoyed that outcome the most? Why, a certain Monsieur Bissouma who was caught hysterically laughing at the full time whistle as if it was the funniest thing he had ever seen in his life. And two years on we are meant to believe he wants to move to Arsenal…

A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Arsenal away
Izzy Brown playing as a false nine with no other recognised striker when Arsenal beat Brighton 2-0 in 2017 would have been bad enough even if the pain had been numbed by a 48 hour bender drinking nothing other than straight Russian vodka – let alone Izzy Brown playing as a false nine for a Sunday midday kick off with hardly any pub in North London opening its doors beforehand.

Arsenal’s most famous fan
When he is not storming off set for the final time on Good Morning Britain or obsessing over Meghan Markle because she did not invite him to her wedding, Sussex boy Piers Morgan supports Arsenal.

As one of the leading critics of Wenger prior to Le Professeur leaving the club in 2018, it is wonderful to have seen him since call for both of Wenger’s replacements to be sacked.

Prediction
Sod it, it is the last match preview of the season so lets go out with a bang – Arsenal 1-2 Brighton. Leaving the question of do we finish above Palace? Seeing as the Eagles always find a way to outdo us, they will probably go and win at Anfield.