Match Preview: xGulls of Brighton welcome injury-hit Leicester
Following back to back defeats against Crystal Palace and West Brom, what you are about to read here is a Brighton v Leicester City match preview featuring a lot of straw clutching.
Tell yourself the following facts before kick off at the Amex at 8pm on Saturday night: Brighton get better results and deliver better performances against better opposition.
Leicester are suffering an injury crisis which has ruled out Harvey Barnes, James Justin and James Maddison, three of the players who destroyed Dan Burn at the King Power in December. Jamie Vardy is also out of form with one goal in his past 13 appearances.
Brendan Rodgers’ side are approaching the stage of the season where they ran out of steam last year. Recent results of one win from five suggest history might be repeating itself.
And if none of that buoys you before Seagulls v Foxes, then console yourself with the fact that it surely cannot get any worse than Brighton missing two penalties in under an hour. Can it?
Leicester City this season
Leicester have spent the entire campaign in the top four – the only side to have done so this season – and at one point in the early autumn were in title contention as nobody seemed to want to grab the bull by the horns in the race for the championship.
Manchester City have since gone on a remarkable winning charge and barring a miracle of biblical proportions, City will have another title for their great sportswashing project.
Anything below first though is still up for grabs. The strange thing is nobody seems to want to take the opportunity with Manchester United, Liverpool, Spurs and Leicester continually dropping points. That has opened the door in recent weeks for Everton and West Ham United to sneak a peak at Europe.
For Leicester, this is all too familiar. They suffered an alarming slump post lockdown in the 2019-20 campaign, costing them a Champions League spot. The worrying thing for Foxes fans is that it might be happening again.
Leicester are as likely to finish second as they are fifth. It has been that sort of season where nobody can say with any confidence who the top four will be after Manchester City.
Most neutrals would love to see the Foxes, Everton and West Ham qualify for the Champions League ahead of the usual suspects, but if Leicester could wait until next week to rediscover their form then that would be very much appreciated.
Recent form
Neither side comes into the game at the Amex in particularly good shape. As already mentioned in the opening gambit of our preview, Leicester are enduring a terrible time of it with injuries whilst Brighton have had 60 shots in the past three matches, scored one goal and taken one point.
Leicester’s sole win from their past five in all competitions came at Aston Villa two weeks ago. They have exited the Europa League to Slavia Prague, lost against Arsenal and been held by Burnley. This looks to be a good time to be playing the Foxes, even if the Albion are in the midst of a pretty dreadful run of results themselves.
Brighton v Leicester City head-to-head
Brighton v Leicester was a rare fixture until the turn of the century, since when the clubs have become regular foes across League One, the Championship and the Premier League.
The Albion tended to enjoy meeting Leicester but in recent times matches with the Foxes have been about as generous as an NHS nurse’s pay rise.
We will get to that in the next section of the preview, but those results have allowed Leicester to streak ahead of Brighton in the head-to-head.
In 37 previous meetings, Leicester have been triumphant on 17 occasions. The Albion have won 13 times and there have been seven draws between the teams.
Brighton’s head-to-head record with Leicester City
Last six meetings
• Leicester City 1-0 Brighton (FA Cup Fifth Round, 10/02/21)
• Leicester City 3-0 Brighton (Premier League, 13/12/20)
• Leicester City 0-0 Brighton (Premier League, 23/06/20)
• Brighton 0-2 Leicester City (Premier League, 23/11/19)
• Leicester City 2-1 Brighton (Premier League, 26/02/19)
• Brighton 1-1 Leicester City (Premier League, 24/11/18)
• Brighton 0-2 Leicester City (Premier League, 31/03/18)
Leicester are one of three clubs who Brighton are yet to defeat since winning promotion to the Premier League – the others being Manchester City and Southampton, who we can look forward to playing next week.
Eight times the teams have met post-2017, seven in the league and once in the FA Cup a month ago. The Foxes have won six of those with two ending in draws.
You have to go back to April 2014 to find Brighton’s last win over Leicester, and even that was down to circumstances. The Foxes had claimed the Championship title three days earlier and came into the match off the back of a 72 hour celebratory bender. Oscar Garcia’s Albion took full advantage, pummelling the champions 4-1.
Leonardo Ulloa was so good that evening that Nigel Pearson decided to fork out £8 million for him a few months later. Within two years, Ulloa had helped Leicester to win the Premier League. Brighton meanwhile tried to replace him with Chris O’Grady. Lol.
Team news
Time to mention that Leicester injury crisis again, which is so bad that Chris from Leicester Till I Die told us in our opposition fan interview that he would not be surprised if Brendan Rodgers had to give the tea lady a game.
Brighton of course have some fitness problems of their own. The Albion are yet to win a game since Adam Webster limped off against Burnley at the start of February.
Graham Potter also confirmed in his Brighton v Leicester preview press conference that Tariq Lamptey had suffered a setback and faced more time on the treatment table.
Potter switched to a back four for the trip to West Brom but the result and that horrible opening 10 minutes show that the change did not really work.
Should he revert to a three man defence and wing backs again, he really needs natural width rather than Steve Alzate doing a job out-of-position. Might the time have arrived to chuck in Michal Karbownik and see what he is made of?
Leicester City’s danger men
Vardy loves a goal against Brighton and it would be typical to see him end his barren patch by scoring at the Amex. Even more important than Vardy though is Kasper Schmeichel, one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League and a man the Albion will need to find a way past if they are to win.
Having seen Emiliano Martinez make nine saves last time the Seagulls took to the Amex pitch, Brighton’s finishing is going to have to be much improved against an even better goalkeeper than Aston Villa’s number one.
If the Albion do not find the corners of the Leicester goal, then we may as well all sack off the football and tune into Saturday Night Take Away instead.
The betting value for Brighton v Leicester
There is a lot going in the favour of Brighton as our straw-clutching match preview for the Leicester game has highlighted so far. The question is are Brighton going to be clinical enough to take advantage?
If experience this season teaches us anything, then the answer to that question is a big fat no. In which case, the draw has a lot of appeal at a best priced 11/5.
An interesting subplot
Curiously, some of the best results Brighton have had this season have come against the better teams. The Albion outplayed all of Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Spurs at the Amex. They probably would have outplayed Arsenal too had Potter not been sniffing glue just prior to selecting his starting XI.
Does that run continue against Leicester? The Foxes are a little different in that they are more of a counter attacking side than any of the other top four contenders. Subsequently, they will be more content to sit back and let Brighton have the ball, which will not suit the Albion.
An intriguing tactical battle lies in wait – and another chance to test the theory about Brighton being more suited to mixing it with the big boys.
A good WeAreBrighton.com memory of Leicester City at home
There have not been many turnarounds as good as when Brighton recovered from 2-0 down at half time to beat Leicester 3-2 at Withdean in November 2008.
Even more enjoyable than the comeback was the site of hundreds of fans streaming out of the Theatre of Trees at the interval, thinking the game was done and dusted.
One supporter – the wonderfully named Pornomagboy – even posted a thread on North Stand Chat from the comfort of his own home regarding his early departure with the second half just about to kick off, saying Micky Adams should be sacked.
Watching him then argue with fellow posters about the merits of abandoning ship as the goals flew in has to be the greatest moment in the message board’s history, a real thread for the ages.
The hope at full time was that result would turn the Albion’s season around. It was not to be though. Four months later and Adams was sacked with the club staring League Two in the face, leaving Pornomagboy right about one thing at least.
A bad WeAreBrighton.com memory of Leicester City at home
Both Brighton and Leicester were fighting it out to avoid relegation from the Championship when the Foxes rocked up at Withdean for a crucial six pointer in February 2006.
In classic Albion style, Mark McGhee’s side found themselves 2-0 down inside of the first five minutes on their way to a disappointing defeat.
McGhee’s take on matters after the game? “We were the better side after the first five minutes”. Not helpful, Mark…
Leicester’s most famous fan
That bloke who always puts Brighton last on Match of the Day. Although to be fair, we have deserved that over the past few weeks.
Prediction
Brighton 1-1 Leicester. And for you xG fiends out there, Brighton (7.49 xG) Leicester (0.12 xG).
