Out of form Brighton v rampant Liverpool: We have been here before
Call the nurse please, I am going insane. What other reason could there be for thinking Brighton can take something from a Liverpool side in rampant form hunting what would be the first quadruple in English football history?
Logic and recent results suggest there is more chance of Priti Patel winning some sort of prize for services to people fleeing war than there is of the Albion shocking Jurgen Klopp’s Redmen.
Brighton have lost their past four matches in a row, three of which have come against sides below them in the table. Liverpool have won 12 domestic fixtures in succession, including securing the Camila Cabello Cup.
With the Premier League title race still alive and the Reds into the FA Cup and Champions League quarter finals, Klopp’s side have their eyes set on having four pieces of silverware in the Anfield trophy cabinet come the end of May.
And yet… would it not just be the most #TypicalBrighton thing for the Albion to end their own demoralising run at the same time as becoming the first English side to avoid defeat against Liverpool since the turn of the year? We have been here before, of course…
Liverpool this season
Throughout January, the title race was described as done and dusted. Manchester City were pissing their way towards another championship to help their great sportswashing project, so that the world might associate Abu Dhabi with the 2022-23 Premier League winners rather than slavery, homosexuality being illegal and no freedom of the press.
The biggest indication of how good Liverpool have been over the past three months is that City have only dropped a few points over the same period. Under normal circumstances, that should have done little to impact the monstrous lead they had built up.
Liverpool though have been a relentless winning machine. The gap at the top is now down to six points. The Reds have a game in hand and they will meet City at the Etihad Stadium in early April.
From it looking like another procession to the title for Bald Pep, it is now very much a two horse race for the trophy.
Would it not be great if Brighton could dent Liverpool’s hopes, if only to have those weirdos from ‘The Brighton Kop’ drinking tears rather than cheap beer in The Font, whilst all us football fans who support our local team celebrate a famous victory just a couple of miles away at the Amex?
Team news
The bad news is that Brighton continue to be without Adam Webster. The defender is suffering his annual injury which Graham Potter assures us will only result in a “few days out” but actually takes six weeks to recover from.
Brighton have been ghastly defensively in his absence, not helped by Potter tinkering with the back line every week in the hope of finding a winning formula.
How about this for a radical idea? Go back to what was working at the start of the season, when the Albion lost only four of their opening 23 Premier League games.
Three centre backs – in this case Lewis Dunk, Shane Duffy and Joel Veltman – and Tariq Lamptey and Marc Cucurella as wing backs.
That old adage “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” has never really appealed to Potter. Perhaps it should as it seems mad to completely ignore the formation and setup which had Brighton on the cusp of European football.
The Albion’s hopes of shocking Liverpool will be boosted if Klopp’s revelation about Covid-19 being present in the squad turns out to be true.
Ibrahima Konate, one-time Brighton target Virgil van Dijk and midfielder Thiago have all been absent from training this week. Roberto Firmino however is back after six weeks out with a groin injury.
Key battles
Guardiola attempting to win the title without using a recognised forward has created the rather unusual situation whereby the top three scorers in the Premier League this season are all from one club – Liverpool.
To stand any chance against the Reds, you therefore have to keep Mo Salah quiet (and not give him an opportunity to throw himself to the floor in acting that would shame a GCSE Drama student with a predicted D grade).
You also have to keep Diogo Jota quiet. And keep Sadio Mane quiet. Obviously, a strong defensive performance from Brighton will be key and that is where the most important battle lies.
Dunk, Veltman, Duffy, Cucurella, Lamptey… whoever is in that Albion back line is going to have to be at the top of their game. Robert Sanchez too could do with the sort of afternoon whereby he silences his critics.
Fingers crossed that they have got all the dodgy defending and wobbly moments out of their system over the past four defeats.
Recent form
Not really too much to say here, is there? Brighton’s run of four straight losses is their worst under Potter. One home win since September is arguably more grisly, making it an absolute miracle that the season ticket renewal rate for 2022-23 is at 90 percent.
- 05/03/22: Newcastle 2-1 Brighton
- 26/02/22: Brighton 0-2 Aston Villa
- 19/02/22: Brighton 0-3 Burnley
- 15/02/22: Man United 2-0 Brighton
- 12/02/22: Watford 0-2 Brighton
- 05/02/22: Spurs 3-1 Brighton
There is at least a slither of hope from Tuesday night. Inter Milan became the first team to win at Anfield in over a year, ending Liverpool’s 15 game unbeaten run in all competitions.
One of two things will happen next. Either it is the start of a dip in form that Brighton can take advantage of. Or Liverpool will up their game further in an attempt to launch another long sequence of results without defeat.
If it is the latter, then that opening paragraph about thinking the Albion can take something is going to look very stupid.
- 08/03/22: Liverpool 0-1 Inter Milan
- 05/03/22: Liverpool 1-0 West Ham
- 02/03/22: Liverpool 2-1 Norwich
- 27/02/22: Chelsea 0-0 Liverpool
- 23/02/22: Liverpool 6-0 The Leeds United
- 19/02/22: Liverpool 3-1 Norwich
Last time Brighton played Liverpool
The Albion are unbeaten in their past three meetings with Liverpool. October’s clash at Anfield was a classic as the Albion came from 2-0 down to take a point as it finished Liverpool 2-2 Brighton.
A long afternoon under the Merseyside sun looked in store when Jordan Henderson and Mane had the hosts 2-0 ahead inside 24 minutes.
Sanchez was bailed out of an horrific error which looked to have handed Liverpool a third by VAR with Brighton going onto make the most of that reprieve.
Enock Mwepu scored a stunning goal from a full 35 yards over the head of a baffled Alisson before half time, setting the stage for a 65th minute equaliser from Leandro Trossard.
The Albion came close to winning it when Trossard scored again, only for VAR to correctly disallow his effort.
A crazy 90 minutes of football which seems a million miles away from the dirge served up over the past four weeks.
Brighton v Liverpool head-to-head
Brighton and Liverpool have met on 34 occasions and needless to say, it is the Reds who have won the majority of matches. 19 games have ended in their favour whilst there have been 10 draws and just five Albion victories.
Only two of those Seagulls’ successes have come in the top flight – Brighton’s 1-0 win at Anfield last season and victory by the same score on Merseyside in March 1982 via an Andy Ritchie goal.
If the Albion were to take three points off Liverpool at the Amex, then it would be their first ever home win over the Reds at home in the top division of English football.
A reason why Brighton will win
Hammered by Burnley. Comfortably beaten by Villa. Threw any chance of three points from Newcastle away by conceding twice in two minutes.
Brighton specialise in following the ridiculous with the sublime. That win at Anfield a little over a year ago came off the back of a run of only four wins from the first 21 matches of the season. Nobody gave the Albion a hope that evening and the rest, as they say, is history.
From eliminating Manchester City from the League Cup four days after losing 1-0 at home to nine man Walsall to following up an 8-0 win over Northwich Victoria with a 1-0 home defeat to Tranmere Rovers, the only consistent thing about the Albion is inconsistency.
Beating Liverpool off the back of such a poor run seems an obvious new addition to that impressive list of #TypicalBrighton moments.
A reason why Liverpool will win
Because there are only so many straws you can clutch before you realise, actually, we’re doomed.
Brighton v Liverpool betting
Strangely, the bookies do not seem to share the confidence oozing through WAB Towers at the moment. Brighton are 13/2 to win and 19/5 to draw, with the second of those options looking the most appealing.
Other than that, this is a game probably best avoided betting wise – unless you are willing to take the risk of Lewis Dunk scoring for Liverpool again. Any own goal in the game is available at 7/1.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 1-1 Liverpool (Please collect me from West Stand Upper Block H nurse).
Prediction of Lewis Dunk own goal: 27th minute.
Prediction of Paul Barber word count dedicated to what a wonderful job the club have done in getting a 90 percent season ticket renewal rate: 2,475.
