Ready for another spin of Potter roulette as Brighton host Watford?
During their 120 year existence, Brighton & Hove Albion have played Watford more than any other team. There have been more than 150 meetings between the clubs, which makes it fitting that this most familiar of foes provide the opposition as the Amex returns to full capacity for the first time in 18 months.
Both sides come into the match having tasted victory on the opening day of the campaign. For the Albion, that came at Burnley once Graham Potter had sobered up after 45 minutes of experimenting with a 4-1-4-1 formation featuring Pascal Gross at left back and Adam Webster at right back.
Having had three meaningless pre-season friendlies to test out this and any other whacky ideas that the Brighton manager might have formulated, it seemed ridiculous to start experimenting the first time that actual Premier League points were on the line. That is Potter for you.
Once he realised the error of his ways and reverted to a 3-4-1-2 and the radical concept of using players in their actual positions, Brighton were miles better in the second half and ended up walking away with a 2-1 win having gone into the interval 1-0 behind.
Watford meanwhile were busy picking up an impressive 3-2 win over an Aston Villa side who are many people’s dark horses for a top six finish this season.
Villa fans expect even better, believing that their 1996 Coca Cola Cup win makes them the biggest club in the country and that they therefore should be challenging for the title (and that Yves Bissouma would walk over broken glass to play for them if they put in a bid).
Needless to say, we thoroughly enjoyed the Hornets bringing Villa down a peg or two last week. That result does though highlight that Watford at home may not be as straightforward a match as many Brighton fans are expecting.
Watford this season
Watford are back in the Premier League after a one-season absence having finished as runners up in the Championship last season. Their instant return was not really a surprise as they should never have been relegated from the top flight in the first place.
Owners the Pozzo Family sack managers as frequently as Dominic Raab refuses to make important phone calls and whilst most of the time they tend to get it right (unlike the Foreign Secretary), their decision to part ways with Nigel Pearson when outside of the relegation zone with two matches left to play was utterly bizarre.
The Hornets ended up finishing in the bottom three under caretaker Hayden Mullins and they rattled through a further two bosses in 2020-21, Vladimir Ivic being replaced by former Spain international Xisco back in December.
As for this season, the aim of the game for Watford has to be survival first and foremost. Like most other top flight clubs, they have had a very quiet transfer window so far with the only big name arrival being Josh King on a free from Everton.
If Brighton have designs of finishing higher up the Premier League table this season, then Watford at home is exactly the sort of game they have to be winning. It is also exactly the sort of game they have always struggled in under Potter, so who knows what will happen?
Team news
Aaron Connolly is available again after what Potter described as “a personal issue”. It was reported on the Thursday before the trip to Burnley that Connolly had thrown a hissy fit when it was revealed that he would not be in the starting XI at Turf Moor and so Potter decided to leave him at home completely, the latest example of an appalling attitude from a player who thinks he is miles better than he is.
Quite why Connolly is getting chance after chance after chance when the likes of Jurgen Locadia and Florin Andone were jettisoned after the first time they erred is another Potter mystery.
It also makes the treatment of Percy Tau appear pretty shoddy, Tau having waited two-and-a-half years to get to England only for it to look like he is being flogged to Egypt within six months after less than 100 minutes of Premier League football to prove himself.
Elsewhere, Joel Veltman remains out because of a Covid close contact and Danny Welbeck and Tariq Lamptey are injured. Last week proved that trying to second guess what Potter may do is a futile exercise, so we are not even going to try. Just please, for the love of God, play Gross in his actual position.
For Watford, King could make his Hornets debut after missing the win over Villa with a groin problem. Xisco will be without Juraj Kucka, Ozan Tufan, Joao Pedro and Nathaniel Chalobah.
Key battles
Central to Watford beating Villa was right winger Ismaila Sarr, which is bad news when Brighton do not currently have a natural left back in first team contention.
Sarr gave Matt Targett such a torrid time at Vicarage Road that Dean Smith decided to put him out of his misery and haul him at half time. If a genuine, Premier League standard left back could not cope with the Senegalese wide man then how will one of Potter’s square-pegs-in-round holes manage?
This is why we again find ourselves contemplating a little visit to church on route to the Amex to pray that Gross is not at left back.
Solly March seems the best choice to fulfil the role of dealing with Sarr < insert joke about catching sarrs here > but he is much more comfortable going forward.
90 minutes against Sarr will be a real test of the defensive side of March’s game – and could go a long way towards deciding if the Albion make it two wins from two.
Recent form
Brighton have been in good form over their past six matches, winning three and losing two. Those victories were not exactly routine either; Burnley is a tough place to go, Manchester City are the reigning champions who can buy their way to the title every season and The Leeds United are the biggest football club in the universe.
This though is the Albion paradox. Brighton play well and record better results against the stronger teams and struggle against the likes of Watford.
The Seagulls won only one game against a side in the bottom half of the table at the Amex last season when beating Newcastle United 3-0 in April – so whilst recent form might look pleasant, form at home against fellow strugglers is ghastly.
- 14/08/21: Burnley 1-2 Brighton
- 23/05/21: Arsenal 2-0 Brighton
- 18/05/21: Brighton 3-2 Manchester City
- 15/05/21: Brighton 1-1 West Ham
- 09/05/21: Wolves 2-1 Brighton
- 01/05/21: Brighton 2-0 The Leeds United
Something of a mixed bag for the Hornets although once they won promotion via their 1-0 win over Milllllllllllllllll on April 24th, there was bugger all to play for as Norwich were already miles clear at the top leaving the the Championship title out of grasp.
Interestingly, Watford have won only one of their last four away matches and that came against a Canaries side with nothing to play for.
Defeats against Brentford, arch rivals Luton and a draw with Neil Warnock’s Middlesbrough suggest that Watford struggle on the road – potentially good news for Brighton.
- 14/08/21: Watford 3-2 Aston Villa
- 08/05/21: Watford 2-0 Swansea City
- 01/05/21: Brentford 2-0 Watford
- 24/04/21: Watford 1-0 Millllllllllllll
- 20/04/21: Norwich City 0-1 Watford
- 17/04/21: Luton Town 1-0 Watford
Last time we met
It was February 2020 and Brighton were slap bang in the middle of that terrible winter run of two wins from 18 games which dragged them into the relegation battle when Watford came to the Amex.
Things nearly got even worse for Potter as the Hornets took a 1-0 lead through Abdoulaye Doucoure after a typical attempt at overplaying by the Albion went awry, Aaron Mooy (remember him?) lost possession and the visitors broke to score.
Brighton then had to rely on a 78th minute own goal from Adrian Mariappa to ensure they did not suffer an embarrassing home defeat, the Watford defender rather generously lashing home an Alireza Jahanbakhsh cross under no pressure as it finished 1-1.
A miserable night at the Amex but the WAB Team did at least have the comfort of having watched it through a blur of strong Belgian beer from a bar in Gent whilst on a stag do. Amongst the items lost that evening were a mobile phone, an expensive coat and a lot of men’s dignity.
Brighton v Watford head-to-head
There have been 155 meetings between Brighton and Watford across 10 different competitions since 1904. The Albion lead the head-to-head with 45 wins, the Hornets have been victorious on 36 occasions and there have been 35 draws.
Part of the reason for the clubs being such regular foes is because Brighton and Watford drew each other for four consecutive seasons in the FA Cup during the 1920s, the odds of which are over nine million to one.
Often, these ties required replays which boots the number of FA Cup meetings between Seagulls and Hornets to 10. With it now being over 10 years since the Albion faced Watford in the FA Cup – Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named overseeing a shock 1-0 win at Vicarage Road in 2010-11 – the law of averages suggests we will be meeting in the third round of the competition come January. Which will be nice.
A reason why Brighton will win
Confidence should be running high amongst the Brighton squad following the 2-1 victory at Burnley and the manner it was delivered in. Potter has also learnt an important lesson within 45 minutes of the 2021-22 season, namely that he needs to use players in their actual positions.
A reason why Watford will win
Watford might not win, but they probably will not lose either. Sheffield United. West Brom. Fulham. Burnley. Crystal Palace. Southampton. Wolves. Aston Villa. All came to the Amex last season and all left with something to show for their efforts.
Brighton v Watford betting
The bookies have Brighton as odds-on favourites to beat Watford, which seems about as good value as the £37 billion spent on a Track & Trace app which did not actually work.
Last season’s record against clubs in the bottom half of the table at the Amex suggests a draw is likely, available at a best priced 13/5.
In terms of player betting, Neal Maupay started last season with a bang and his goals tend to come in fits and starts. It would not be a surprise to see him on target again following his equaliser at Turf Moor and he can be found at 28/17 to score anytime.
Tau at 11/5 is probably one to avoid whilst we have unfortunately been unable to find a market on what time Connolly is filmed getting into a fight in Shoosh! in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Predictions
Prediction of actual score: Brighton 1-1 Watford
Prediction of xG score: Watford 1.2 – 6.7 Brighton
Prediction of first drunk meltdown: 3.01pm
(We predicted 3.05pm for the first drunken meltdown at Burnley but even that proved to be too conservative as it took James Tarkowski less than three minutes to give the Clarets the lead).
