Spurs v Brighton: Don’t try and tell me the Magic of the FA Cup is no more
Am I completely mad for thinking the Albion could win the FA Cup? Quite possibly. But in a season with unprecedented fixture congestion causing headaches for the European Super League Elite Six, when Brighton are pretty much safe from relegation and have proven that they can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the Premier League – including Spurs – why can’t the Seagulls win the FA Cup?
We will have a better idea come 10pm on Saturday evening. Or 11pm if it goes to extra time and penalties, in which case dreams of a day out at Wembley in May will be replaced by immediate concern about how 5,700 away fans are making it to London Victoria for the last train home.
The Albion have a wonderful relationship with the World’s Greatest Cup Competition. If Graham Potter’s Brighton were to eliminate Spurs on their own patch, then it would be another unforgettable day to go with the likes of the semi final at Wembley in 2019, Anfield in 1991 and the entire run to the 1983 final.
Everything is set up for this to be quite the evening at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Over to the Albion…
Spurs this season
Ah Spurs. It is never dull is it? Jose Mourinho’s negative football did not work out and so after a summer search for a new boss which was more long-winded than a series of the X Factor (Cheryl was apparently interviewed by Daniel Levy), they ended up appointing Nuno from Wolves. A manager known for his negative football.
To the surprise of absolutely nobody except the Tottenham hierarchy, the new appointment did not work out. After just 10 Premier League games in charge, Nuno was sacked.
In his place came Antonio Conte, a surprisingly shrewd appointment who appears to fit Spurs’ ethos and is a born winner.
Results have picked up under the passionate Italian and Tottenham are now just two points off the Champions League spots with two games in hand.
Storm clouds might be brewing, however. Conte does not shirk away from making fierce demands of his employers and he is said to have been less than impressed with the backing received in January.
If Spurs do not give their manager what he wants over the coming months, then there is every chance he could walk out before the end of the summer window. Which would be hilarious.
Team news
Graham Potter named a strong team for the 3-1 extra time win at West Brom in the third round of the competition.
The Brighton manager is clearly taking the FA Cup seriously, which bodes well for the trip to Spurs and those aforementioned dreams of another Wembley appearance.
Potter will have Lewis Dunk, Shane Duffy and Adam Lallana available after injury and this seems like an ideal game to get minutes into all three. Likewise Danny Welbeck and Steve Alzate, who are feeling their way back after several months out.
Enock Mwepu and Jeremy Sarmiento are back in training but Potter confirmed in his pre-match press conference neither would be considered for selection. Alexis Mac Allister is ruled out with Covid-19.
When Spurs faced Morecambe in the previous round, Conte named a severely weakened team. This nearly backfired horribly as they trailed the struggling League One outfit right up until the 74th minute at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
It took the introduction of England captain Harry Kane to turn the game. Three goals in 14 minutes once Kane had been introduced gave Spurs a scarcely deserved 3-1 win against the Shrimps.
There are two ways to view that near-cock up against Morecambe. The first is that Conte is prioritising Champions League qualification over FA Cup progress and so he might name a weakened team again when Brighton visit Spurs.
The second is that he learnt a very important lesson about the dangers of playing reserves, even against League One opponents.
Against a Premier League rival just a couple of places below Spurs in the table, Conte may subsequently go full strength to try and progress.
Even if he does that, a strong Brighton side can match Tottenham. They beat Spurs last time the sides met and have also avoided defeat against Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham, Leicester (twice) and Chelsea (twice) so far this season. Another reason to be confident ahead of the trip to North London.
Key battles
Hard to know what they key battles will be when you do not really know what players either manager will field. If Kane starts, then keeping him quiet will obviously be central to the Albion’s hopes of progressing.
Should Adam Webster play, marking Kane out the game would enhance his England credentials. It should do similar for Dunk were it not for Gareth Southgate’s indifference to the Brighton captain, presumably because Dunk ran over Southgate’s cat or something.
And what an opportunity it could be for young Haydon Roberts. Already tipped as a future England international and Albion skipper in succession to Dunk, it would be quite a statement should the teenager nullify the threat of Kane.
Recent form
It is hard to read too much into Spurs’ recent form as three of their past six matches have come against Chelsea. There were losses in both legs of the Carabao Cup semi final, followed by a 2-0 Premier League reversal at Stamford Bridge. Clearly, avoiding defeat against the Blues is not for everyone…
- 23/01/22: Chelsea 2-0 Spurs
- 19/01/22: Leicester 2-3 Spurs
- 12/01/22: Spurs 0-1 Chelsea
- 09/01/22: Spurs 3-1 Morecambe
- 05/01/22: Chelsea 2-0 Spurs
- 01/01/22: Watford 0-1 Chelsea
The Premier League’s draw specialists have been, er, specialising in draws recently. Four 1-1s in their past six matches accompanied by two wins is decent form for the Albion, especially with two of those shared spoils coming against the European Champions and another point being accumulated away at Leicester City.
Brighton also recorded their first ever victory away at Everton in that run, another example of Potter rewriting the history books having also secured maiden successes at both Deepdale and Villa Park last season.
The Albion have never won at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (admittedly in three previous visits) so this represents another chance to make a bit of history.
- 26/01/22: Leicester 1-1 Brighton
- 18/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Chelsea
- 14/01/22: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace
- 08/01/22: West Brom 1-2 Brighton
- 02/01/22: Everton 2-3 Brighton
- 29/12/21: Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
Last time Brighton played Spurs
Covid-19 put paid to Spurs’ scheduled visit to the Amex in December, meaning you have to go back over a year to find the last time Tottenham and Brighton faced each other.
It was a memorable evening in Good Old Sussex By The Sea. Leandro Trossard scored the only goal of the game in a 1-0 Albion win, meaning that Brighton became the first ever opponent to inflict three away defeats on Jose Mourinho in his stellar career as a manager.
Mourinho was gone shortly after, following in the footsteps of Mauricio Pochettino who lost his job within weeks of suffering a 3-0 hammering against the Seagulls in October 2019.
Should the fate of his predecessors have Conte worried about the repercussions of a Spurs defeat to Brighton in the FA Cup?
Spurs v Brighton head-to-head
Spurs lead the head-to-head, winning 18 of the 36 matches between the clubs. Brighton have 10 victories to their name with eight draws rounding things off.
In terms of the FA Cup, there has been only one previous meeting in the competition between Spurs and Brighton. That came in the 2004-05 season, when the Albion got to within seven minutes of taking Tottenham back to Withdean for a replay.
Ledley King had headed the hosts into a half time lead at White Hart Lane. Brighton equalised shortly after the interval, Richard Carpenter scoring a brilliant free kick past England goalkeeper Paul Robinson which is still talked about to this day by Albion fans.
The Seagulls were much the better team over the 90 minutes and the least they deserved was another crack at Spurs on a Tuesday night under the lights at the Theatre of Trees.
Robbie Keane though had other ideas, scoring a magnificent winner on the volley to ensure it finished Spurs 2-1 Brighton. Martin Jol and his players knew they had a very lucky escape from experiencing the thrill of getting changed in a portacabin.
A reason why Spurs will win
Conte delivers trophies, no matter where he goes. Spurs are out of the Carabao Cup, out of the Europa Conference and were never even in the running for the Premier League.
Their only chance of silverware comes in the FA Cup. A return to the Champions League may be Tottenham’s overriding aim, but Conte’s track record suggests that he cares as much for winning stuff as he does for a fourth place finish.
A reason why Brighton will win
Spurs might have a world class manager and a world class striker, but everything else about them right now screams mediocre.
Brighton have nothing to fear about a trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and providing Potter plays a strong line up, those 5,700 Albion fans who were lucky enough to nab tickets before the unannounced allocation sold out can travel to London full of confidence.
Spurs v Brighton betting
With the absolute clusterfuck of trying to get from Tottenham to London Victoria for the last train home, it seems nailed on that Spurs v Brighton will end as a draw over 90 minutes. You can take that at 13/5.
In terms of player betting, FA Cup games are often best left alone until the starting XI is announced. Having said that, one man who is of interest whether he starts or is on the bench is Jakub Moder.
The Polish midfielder cannot buy a goal for love nor money in the Premier League. That is in stark contrast to what he does in cup competitions.
Moder’s two Brighton career goals to date have come in the Carabao Cup this season away at Cardiff, followed by the equalising goal at West Brom in the previous round of the FA Cup.
He was also heavily involved in Neal Maupay’s winner at the Hawthorns. A cheeky couple of quid on Moder to net anytime against Spurs at a generous 27/2 can help pay for that Uber back from London once you are stranded after the penalty shoot out.
Predictions
Prediction of score after 90 minutes: Spurs 1-1 Brighton
Prediction of score after extra time: Spurs 1-2 Brighton
Prediction of Brighton winning the FA Cup: YES!!!!!!!
