Take your boots, you might get a game: Bare bones Brighton host Wolves
Things to remember to take to Brighton v Wolves at the Amex: Covid-19 vaccine passport or proof of a negative LFT. Identification. Face covering. Matchday ticket downloaded onto mobile phone. Set of football boots in case Graham Potter decides to chuck you up front.
Yes, the Albion really are that short that it would not be a surprise to see Potter pulling people out of the crowd to play. Seven players are out injured, Shane Duffy is suspended and Potter confirmed in his pre-match press conference that three or four of his squad have tested positive for Covid-19.
Personally, I quite fancy seeing Barbara from the East Stand given a go up front. When she misses three or four easy chances, we can all call her shit and say Potter has to replace Barbara in the January transfer window.
And then when she scores a last minute goal, we can all her praise her to the roof and offer to take her out for boeuf et frites. Heyyyyyyy Barbara, I wanna knowwwwww….
That is of course presuming Barbara turns up. With Covid-19 infections running wild not just through the Albion squad but in society in general, a lot of fans have said they will swerve Brighton v Wolves. A positive test resulting from attending the Amex would mean being in isolation over Christmas.
We could be on for a record-low crowd watching a severely weakened team record an 11th game without a win. Merry Christmas, everyone.
Wolves this season
Nobody really knew what was going to happen with Wolves this season. Nuno departed but the Portuguese services of one of the best translation agencies in London were still required at Molineux as his replacement was Bruno Lage, continuing the Iberian connection.
The Old Gold had a bit of a slow start to the campaign, winning just one of their first five matches. Things have picked up markedly since the end of September however, five wins from 11 pushing them into the top 10.
Some of the problems that categorised the end of the Nuno era still exist. Wolves do not score enough goals with their total of 12 being the second-worst in the division after Norwich City.
Not scoring many is not too much of a problem as they do not concede many either. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have let in fewer goals than Wolves.
That means that this is a meeting of two sides who struggle to put the ball in the back of the net at one end but are very good defensively at the other. Paul Barber should put us on commission for making this game sound worth the risk of catching Covid-19.
Team news
Well… we know that Lewis Dunk is injured. And Adam Webster. And Adam Lallana. And Danny Welbeck. And Steve Alzate. And Jeremy Sarmiento. And probably Leandro Trossard.
We know that Duffy is banned. You have probably read the speculation about who is ruled out with Covid-19, but it hardly seems fair to discuss a player’s medical status here, so we will not be naming any names.
This is one of those evenings where nobody is going to know what Potter will do until the teams are announced at 6.30pm.
Potter himself will not know until then, as there is every chance that more players could be ruled out when tested beforehand. It might be time for Our Graham to get his roulette wheel out of storage.
In contrast to the Albion, Wolves have one of the highest squad vaccination rates in the Premier League and that means they arrive at the Amex with no confirmed Covid-19 cases. They look pretty fresh on the injury front too.
Their only likely absentee to be Raul Jimenez, who is suspended after managing the impressive feat of picking up two yellow cards in the space of 31 seconds during Wolves’ defeat to Manchester City at the weekend.
Given how much Wolves struggle for goals, that is likely to be seriously good news for an Albion defence shorn of Dunk, Webster and Duffy.
Key battles
Brighton’s dearth of centre back options means that Dan Burn should line up alongside Joel Veltman. That will at least save everyone’s favourite Princess Diana look-a-like from undergoing his normal torture at the hands of Adama Traore.
One of Potter’s more bizarre decisions of last season was to leave Burn ruthlessly exposed at left back against Traore in the crazy 3-3 draw between Brighton and Wolves at the Amex.
The result was Burn scoring an own goal, giving away a penalty and getting booked before being hauled after an hour. He was one yellow card away from adding a sending off to complete the triple crown, something which not even Colin Hawkins managed.
Marc Cucurella against Traore is likely to be a much more even battle. Seeing as Traore always seems to save his best games for when he faces Brighton, if Cucurella can keep his fellow Spaniard quiet then it could go a long way towards ensuring the Albion get some sort of result.
Recent form
Neal Maupay’s late heroics at West Ham and Southampton made the Albion’s two previous matches feel like victories rather than draws.
The cold, hard reality of the form book though is that Brighton are winless in 10 matches – a run which has included games with Norwich, Newcastle, Aston Villa, The Leeds United, Crystal Palace and the Saints.
Those heady days of September when the Seagulls were soaring in the Champions League spots seem a million miles away now. Potter needs to find a result anyway he can if this is not to turn into another season where Brighton do little more than hover around 15th spot.
- 04/12/21: Southampton 1-1 Brighton
- 01/12/21: West Ham 1-1 Brighton
- 27/11/21: Brighton 0-0 The Leeds United
- 20/11/21: Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton
- 06/11/21: Brighton 1-1 Newcastle
- 30/10/21: Liverpool 2-2 Brighton
Wolves have lost their last two matches but there is no disgrace in suffering only 1-0 defeats to City and Liverpool. More concerning for the Old Gold is their two results preceding those fixtures with the top two, when they failed to score against either Burnley or Norwich.
A full strength Brighton defence would be expecting nothing less than a clean sheet from this game. Even a back five of Robert Sanchez, Tariq Lamptey, Burn, Veltman and Cucurella should be targeting a shutout against a Wolves side without Jimenez. Apologies if that jinxes it.
- 11/12/21: Man City 1-0 Wolves
- 04/12/21: Wolves 0-1 Liverpool
- 01/12/21: Wolves 0-0 Burnley
- 27/11/21: Norwich 0-0 Wolves
- 20/11/21: Wolves 1-0 West Ham
- 06/11/21: Crystal Palace 2-0 Wolves
Last time we met
Dunk had one of those funny afternoons which used to be commonplace earlier in his career but have become extremely rare since the Albion won promotion to the Premier League in 2017.
Things were looking good when he headed Brighton into a half time lead at Molineux back in May. Early in the second half though, he made a rash and needless last man tackle to earn a red card, paving the way for Wolves to come back and win 2-1.
Traore scored – obviously – along with Morgan Gibbs-White, who sounds more like a cheap whiskey you get in the middle aisle of Lidl than a professional footballer.
To complete a miserable day, Maupay was sent off after the final whistle for confronting referee Jonathan Moss and calling him “a f**king joke”. One would hope that Barbara does not perform similar antics if selected to lead the line on this occasion at the Amex.
Brighton v Wolves head-to-head
These next few paragraphs might be enough to convince you to head to the Amex as Brighton have an utterly outrageous record against Wolves.
The Albion have lost only five league matches out of 34 against the Old Gold. That feeds into an overall record of 15 Brighton wins, 14 draws and just seven Wolves victories from 36 fixtures.
There is more. In the 1984-85 season, Chris Cattlin’s Albion side ended an eight game winless run by beating Wolves. 18 years later and Steve Coppell’s Brighton hammered Premier League-bound Wolves 4-1 at Withdean for a first victory in six games.
If there is any club that Brighton are likely to end their barren run of form against, then history suggests it is the Old Gold.
A reason why Brighton will win
This is what Brighton & Hove Albion do. Logic dictates that the Albion should have beaten at least one of Norwich, Newcastle, Villa, The Leeds United or Southampton – opponents who Potter could name a strong XI against and who began those fixtures below Brighton in the table.
None of those matches were won. Logic also dictates that facing a Wolves side sitting two places higher with an injury-ravaged, Covid-19 hit squad gives the visitors one of the best opportunities they have had to improve their desperate record against the Albion for some time.
The obvious conclusion to draw from this? That Brighton will win. This football club never follows logic.
A reason why Brighton will lose
Despite the Albion’s magnificent record against Wolves, Potter has never masterminded a victory over them. Perhaps they are a club who have his card marked?
Brighton v Wolves betting
Backing the draw has proven to be an absolute goldmine so far this season and there seems to be little reason to abandon it at a price of 21/10.
For those who feel confident that two sides who do not score many but do not concede many either meeting is likely to end in a 0-0 draw, then that outcome is available at a rather generous 7/1.
Predictions
Prediction of score: Brighton 0-0 Wolves
Prediction of attendance: 21,213
Prediction of announced attendance: 30,975
Prediction of getting in with new Covid-19 checks in place: Absolute chaos
