25 million reasons for Brighton to secure a top 10 finish
A brilliant 3-0 win at Wolves has set Brighton up for a best-ever finish in the Premier League, with a top 10 slot looking tantalisingly close with only three games to go.
The race between Manchester City and Liverpool for the title and the battle involving Burnley, Leeds and Everton for survival will be the focus of attention for most football watchers over the coming weeks.
Not many will see the incredibly close four point gap between ninth and 15th places as something to get excited about, and commentators will talk about teams “with nothing to play for” and “minds already on the beach”.
A top half finish though not only comes with kudos, but with considerable financial benefits for clubs who finish the season two, three or four places higher.
The Premier League pays prize money to each club based largely on where they finish in the table. Last season the Albion got £107.5 million for 16th place, Southampton just under £117 million for 15th, and Leeds a whopping £135 million for ninth.
So, whether Brighton finish 15th or ninth this season could make £25 to £30 million difference to the club’s coffers going into the summer transfer window.
That is another two Marc Cucurellas, or maybe six Moises Caicedos. If the prize money is not put into the player budget, then it could help to reduce Brighton’s losses which stood at £53 million in the 2020-21 season.
With such riches on offer, let us have a look at which of the teams in the mid table battle have the best run ins and where the Albion might end up.
Newcastle United are a point below us having been defeated by Liverpool at the weekend. Like Brighton, they have three games remaining.
A trip to Man City (with the title race as close as it could possibly be) looks a bad prospect for points. Newcastle then face Arsenal at home and Burnley away, teams competing for Europe and to avoid the drop respectively.
So despite their recent impressive form, a points total of 46 or 47 is probably the best Eddie Howe’s side can deliver.
Leicester City – who also lost at the weekend to Spurs – have two games in hand on us. Their five remaining games are Everton and relegated Norwich City at home, almost certainly relegated Watford and then Chelsea away, followed by Southampton at home.
Despite a two-legged Europa Conference League semi final with Roma having been added to their busy schedule, I would be surprised if Leicester don’t have another six to nine points to add to their current tally of 42.
Palace also have a game in hand on us, facing Watford (H), Aston Villa (A), Everton (A) and Manchester United (H).
Starting from three points below the Albion, those are four winnable fixtures for a side playing well under Patrick Viera, though again the Everton/Leeds/Burnley relegation scrap will mean a tough time at Goodison.
Let’s be charitable (even if it is Palace) and say two wins and a draw give them another seven to end on 48.
Villa have 40 points but like Leicester five games to go: Burnley (A), Liverpool (H), Palace (H), Burnley (H) and Man City (A). Assuming they lose to the two title contenders, I think there are still a potential six points there, so 46.
Also on 40 are Brentford with games against Southampton (H), Everton (A) and Leeds (H) to go. Those are a very hard set of fixtures to call, but let’s go with five or six points given two games are against relegation battlers.
Finally Southampton, also on 40, with just three left against Brentford (A), Liverpool (H) and Leicester (A). Six maximum, maybe four, so 44-46 points.
And Brighton? We start on 44 points, with Man Utd (H), Leeds (A) and West Ham (H). On our current home and away form that is two draws and a win, so five points for a 49 finish.
If we can find a little extra and manage to win a fourth game of the season at the Amex then that number might be swelled to 51.
All three games are tough, with two opponents scrapping for a Europa League spot and one fighting against the drop.
We do not play any of our rivals for a top 10 spot, but matches between Leicester and Southampton, Brentford and Southampton and Villa and Palace mean that at at least two of those four clubs cannot take maximum points.
Having crunched the numbers, this potentially is how the Premier League table could look come the close of play on Sunday 22nd May (and it is of course one of multiple possible scenarios):
- 9th: Leicester 49 points
- 10th: Brighton 49 points
- 11th: Crystal Palace 48 points
- 12th: Newcastle 47 points
- 13th: Aston Villa 46 points
- 14th: Southampton 46 points
- 15th: Brentford 45 points
Others will be better at the number-crunching, have a clearer idea of form or indeed be more adept at predicting the outcome of games than I am.
And there are supercomputer predictions and betting experts who will have a far more precise guess at where the remaining games will leave each team.
What we can say with near-certainty though is that there is unlikely to be more than five points separating ninth and 15th. And there is £25 million riding on how that plays out.
Warren Morgan @WarrenBHAFC
