How current standings reflect the pre-season relegation odds

With nine games of the 2019-20 Premier League already behind us, we can now make more accurate guesses as to who will be contenders and who will fight a fierce relegation battle.

At the start of the season, many pundits predicted Norwich City and Sheffield United would be battling to avoid relegation along with teams such as Brighton and Hove, Aston Villa and Burnley.

History shows that at least one of the teams promoted from the Championship in the previous season usually ends up being relegated and Norwich are now placed 17th and looking the most likely to go of the three who came up.

There are plenty of other teams however who occupy places that are not exactly in line with the pre-season odds and forecasts.

Where teams predicted for relegation stand now
Looking at the football news today shows a very different picture as compared to the pre-season odds by bookies and predictions by pundits alike.

Sheffield United occupy ninth place, trailing a European spot by just three points. They have exactly the same record as Burnley with three wins, three draws and three defeats so far and only goal difference separates the two of them.

Relegation odds for Sheffield United before the start of the season stood at -143, while Burnley’s chances for relegation were at 2-1.

Even a predictive analytics script that was run on a supercomputer powered by Google Cloud, Opta and Squawka had the Blades down for relegation and yet they are sitting comfortably in the top half of the table after nine games.

The predictive algorithm said that the Albion would finish at the very bottom but currently, Graham Potter’s side are one point clear of the relegation zone and just two behind Aston Villa who sit 12th.

Villa were another team who were predicted to struggle in the Premier League before the start of the season and yet they are a point ahead of Manchester United, who are two places behind the Villa Park outfit in 14th.

How Will the Relegation Battle Evolve?
You don’t need to be a prophet or have a supercomputer to tell you that Manchester United, despite being just two points clear of relegation right now, will not be in the battle to avoid the Championship season – take a look at their UEFA club coefficient and compare it to Burnley’s if you think it’s not fair statement.

What we currently have are teams in relegation spots that include Watford, Norwich, Newcastle United and teams close to being in the bottom three like Southampton and Brighton.

Watford’s position there is a pleasant surprise for bettors who could get 6-1 that they would drop out of the Premier League at the start of the season.

The Hornets are currently bottom of the table, trailing four points behind 18th placed Newcastle who are the side immediately below the safety line. Norwich are one point behind the Toon Army but three points ahead of Watford.

With the Albion, Southampton and Villa all within three points from the relegation spots, there could be a fierce battle in the bottom half of the table over the rest of the season, especially as teams a little further up such as Wolves, West Ham and Bournemouth aren’t far away from entering the dogfight either.

We all know that factors like injuries, dressing room atmosphere and financial stability have a role to play and one of these could become a major factor to consider when talking about who are the most likely teams to drop into the Championship.

What’s more likely though is that each respective team’s schedule will affect their standing before we enter the second half of the season, especially when injuries begin to pile up and sacking a manager becomes more common.

For instance, Brighton will inevitably have difficult games against Arsenal and Liverpool away from home, which in turn will impact on their current standings.

Conclusion
With nine games already played, Brighton are performing in-line with their pre-season expectations while teams like Sheffield United and Burnley are pleasing surprises.

With bookmakers setting pre-season odds at 4–1 for Crystal Palace to be relegated, there have clearly been some odds that are miscalculated. Roy Hodgson’s side sit just behind Arsenal in sixth place and two points ahead of Tottenham.

Finally, any of these over-performing teams could lose points in the later stages and find themselves in the bottom three by the end of the campaign. Consistency is what really matters and Brighton are doing just fine in this respect at the moment.