City buying Rice can spark Caicedo bidding war to benefit Brighton
The news that Manchester City are to enter the race for West Ham United midfielder Declan Rice will have a knock on effect across the summer transfer window – and Brighton stand to benefit if it instigates a bidding war for Moises Caicedo between Arsenal and Chelsea.
Arsenal had high hopes of signing Rice from the London Stadium. They have already had two bids turned down with West Ham insisting they will not sell for anything less than £100 million plus add-ons.
With City’s treble winning captain Ilkay Gundogan having left the Etihad Stadium and Bernardo Silva apparently on the verge of becoming the latest convert to the great Saudi Sportswashing league, the champions find themselves in need of midfield reinforcements.
And according to reports, Pep Guardiola has decided that Rice is the man to kick start the rebuild. A limitless supply of Abu Dhabi petrodollars and (alleged) carefree attitude when it comes to financial fair play means City could easily afford to meet the Hammers’ asking price.
City could even throw in Kalvin Phillips as a sweetener. Phillips has struggled for game time at the Etihad since he surprisingly decided he would rather play for the most dominant side in English football of the last five years rather than 1996 Coca Cola Cup runners up The Leeds United.
Arsenal are expected to return with a vastly improved offer for Rice but with Manchester United lurking in the shadows as well, the Gunners may find themselves missing out on their primary midfield target.
In which case, the likelihood is they return for Caicedo following the failed saga of January. Arsenal initially bid £60 million for Caicedo, only to be told in no uncertain terms by Brighton that there would no sale in the winter transfer window.
The Gunners though did not listen, coming back in with a £70 million offer. To make matters worse, Caicedo’s agent used the midfielder’s Instagram account to post a message begging for the Albion to sanction a sale.
Needless to say, Brighton were not impressed by Arsenal unsettling Caicedo. Sources at the Albion said their opinion of those at the Emirates Stadium had been “soured”, making Brighton less willing to deal with Arsenal in future transfers.
The clubs had previously enjoyed a cordial relationship through the sales which took Ben White and Leandro Trossard to North London.
If Arsenal do come back with a summer bid for Caicedo, the Albion may well add a you pissed us off last time tax to the fee they would be willing to accept to facilitate a move to the Emirates.
Not only that, but Arsenal have competition. Chelsea submitted a £55 million bid in January which was laughed out of the Amex, coming just five months after Blues boss Graham Potter had publicly valued Caicedo at £100 million.
Boehly is taking the matter more seriously this time around. Chelsea are expected to rake in £120 million between now and the end of June, selling Kai Havertz to Arsenal for £65 million, Mateo Kovacic to City for £30 million, Kalidou Koulibaly to Al-Hilal for £17 million and Hakim Ziyech to Al-Nassr for £8 million.
With a hefty amount incoming for transfers and millions cleared off their wage bill, the Blues can reinvest in new signings. Caicedo is said to be at the top of the list.
As with all transfers involving Brighton, Tony Bloom will not have put any sort of public valuation on Caicedo. It is instead up to the interested club to submit offers until they hit upon a number Bloom likes the look of.
That will not stop speculation swirling over what that number might be. Andy Naylor has said Brighton will want at least £100 million for Caicedo.
A bidding war between Arsenal and Chelsea has the potential for that figure to be reached. If both clubs become increasingly desperate, it might even be exceeded.
If said bidding war materialises, there is also the possibility that the Blues included Levi Colwill in the deal. Chelsea have been adamant so far that Colwill will remain at Stamford Bridhge and play a role in Mauricio Pochettino’s first team squad.
But if his transfer to the Amex reduces the fee they pay for Caicedo by £40 million and gets them his signature ahead of Arsenal, maybe their resolve to keep Colwill weakens.
Realistically, Brighton fans need to prepare themselves for the departure of Caicedo. Roberto De Zerbi appears to have done as much, based on his comments following the final game of the 2022-23 season at Aston Villa.
“It can be the last game of Alexis and Moises Caicedo,” said De Zerbi. “I’m really sorry because they are two great people and two great players but the policy of Brighton is like this.”
“I think it is right that they can leave and they can change team. They can play at a level higher. It can be and we are ready, we have to find other big players to play without Alexis and Moises.”
The Caicedo situation is reminiscent of Elliott Bennett 12 years ago. Bennett tried to force through a January move to Norwich City.
Bloom told the winger he would not sell him now but he could leave at the end of the campaign once he had helped the Albion to promotion.
Bennett was sensational in the second half of the season and duly departed for Carrow Road for £1.5 million. His job was done and he had a League One winners medal to boot.
If Bloom struck a similar gentleman’s agreement with Caicedo over sanctioning a summer move providing he knuckled down and performed in the quest for Europe, then the mission now for Brighton is to extract as big a fee as possible for the midfielder.
City buying Rice, Arsenal having to move onto Caicedo and the ensuing bidding war with Chelsea is exactly what the Albion need.
