Putting 2024 so far in perspective for Brighton
It is very easy to feel all is doom and gloom with Brighton in 2024, particularly after the 3-0 loss away at Bournemouth.
Defeat at the Vitality Stadium leaves the Albion on their worst run of Premier League form since the spring of 2022.
The WAB report of Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton highlighted the sober reality of what 14 points in 15 matches means, saying: “Repeat that over an entire campaign and Brighton will be in severe danger of relegation. That is how bad things have become.”
Roberto De Zerbi was equally downbeat in his post-match comments: “We are sorry for the performance but we are not able to give our best and it’s not good enough to compete in the Premier League.”
“I can’t accept a game without soul because we are Brighton and we have got to keep respect for ourselves and the club. I’m suffering a lot but we have to stop these moments quickly.”
It was undoubtedly a disappointing performance, even when you take into consideration the good form Bournemouth are in.
And yet reflecting on both the defeat against the Cherries and wider statistics from those 15 Premier League games played in 2024, there is an argument that all the doom and gloom is being overdone.
We have all seen worse than the Bournemouth game
Some analysing the Bournemouth game said it had echoes of April 2019 and the 5-0 home defeat to the same opponents. That may well have been the match and performance which confirmed in the mind of Tony Bloom it was the end for Chris Hughton.
Brighton 0-5 Bournemouth remains the only game at the Amex that your correspondent has ever left early, being in complete agreement with the WAB summary: “The lack of effort is inexcusable really and it begs the question, why have they seemingly given up trying?”
At the time of the 5-0 match, Bournemouth were only just above the then-relegation threatened Albion in the table. This was not the sort of game Brighton should have been on the beach for, given their own Premier League status was far from assured.
It means that for this correspondent at least, the concerns and feelings from the 2024 defeat to Bournemouth are very different to 2019.
De Zerbi himself has said the Albion were “lacking motivation” at the Vitality Stadium, whereas the 2019 Albion team had plenty of reasons to win.
Brighton also played some okay football at times during the most recent meeting. It seemed more of a performance lacking confidence and caused by key players being injured, alongside these four reasons:
1) Bournemouth are currently a top side
If De Zerbi had a strong case to be Premier League Manager of the Season 2022-23, the same is equally true of Andoni Iraola for his work transforming the Cherries in 2023-24.
It took some time for Iraola to get his methods across and make his mark on Bournemouth. The Cherries are fourth in the Premier League expected points table since the turn of the year, highlighting that their results in 2024 are down to performances rather than fortune.
Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City have played better than Bournemouth. A trip to the Vitality Stadium is no easy game at the moment.
2) The result was worse than the performance
No Brighton fan can seriously argue with the result or call the performance anything other than disappointing. But the conclusion some have drawn over it being appalling and dreadful is not backed up by the statistics.
The expected goal estimate of Bournemouth 2.26 to Brighton 0.99 is indicative of a game that felt more even in general build-up play.
Where the Albion went wrong was poor defending and a lack of final ball. This reflects a Brighton squad low in confidence.
Bournemouth in contrast had the swagger of a team playing well. Their confidence meant they were at a different level to the Albion in both penalty areas.
Hence the Cherries could win 3-0 from 15 shots, six on target. Brighton took 13 shots but just one on target.
3) March, Mitoma and the final ball
WAB wrote last week about the difference Kaoru Mitoma makes to Brighton. With almost perfect timing, defeat at the Vitality Stadium backed up the views expressed.
The lack of penetration down the flanks is also highlighting what a big miss Solly March is. Simon Adingra, Facundo Buonanotte, Valentin Barco and Odel Offiah all had moments where they were past defenders against Bournemouth.
Those moments though came to nothing because of poor final balls. With two finished articles playing out wide in March and Mitoma, the final ball is better.
Adingra, Buonanotte, Barco and Offiah are all at the start of their careers. It is worth remembering the difference in quality between March since De Zerbi took over and March earlier in his career.
4) Promise for the future
With the prospect of qualifying for Europe having largely disappeared, De Zerbi has signalled he will use the remaining games to give playing opportunities to members of the Under 21s squad,
“We will see, I want to give the young players the chance to play,” said De Zerbi. “We need fresh energy and maybe we can sacrifice some experience.”
Against Bournemouth, Brighton used 10 players aged 22 or under: Bart Verbruggen, Offiah, Barco, Billy Gilmour, Carlos Baleba, Buonanotte, Joao Pedro, Adingra, Julio Enciso and Mark O’Mahony.
Injured duo Jack Hinshelwood and Tariq Lamptey are both under 22. So too impressive loanees Carl Rushworth, James Beadle, Jeremy Sarmiento and Abdallah Sima.
With Ibrahim Osman to arrive in the summer, there is plenty to be excited about for the future of the club. This was not the case following the 5-0 defeat of 2019, when the last development squad player to make a league debut for Brighton under Hughton had been Rob Hunt in 2016.
How worried should we be about Brighton form in 2024?
Looking at 2024 as a whole, taking 14 points from 15 games is of understandable worry for Brighton supporters. Such form suggests relegation concerns could take over from European aspirations and have even led some to question De Zerbi’s future.
It has been consistently proven that expected goals and points is a better predictor of future performance than actual results.
We know the Albion firmly believe in this. It is the reason why Graham Potter was never under any pressure despite long periods of bad results. It led to the surprise sacking earlier in the campaign of Mel Phillips as Brighton Women head coach.
The expected points table for 2024 has Brighton in 11th spot with 19 points from 15 games, rather than the 14 they have actually won.
This suggests misfortune has had a part to play in the Albion’s recent form, as well as putting the defeat to fourth-placed Bournemouth in context.
Brighton are higher in the expected points table than four teams currently above them in the actual standings – Manchester United, Aston Villa, Wolves and West Ham.
With Villa and United still to visit at the Amex, that gives some hope the Albion can take points off both those sides. It may not be the barren end to the campaign a lot of fans are expecting.
Finally, spare a thought for Nottingham Forest. The Tricky Trees are fifth in the expected points table on 23 compared to the 10 they have picked up in 2024.
Nuno is making a very strong claim to be Graham Potter’s successor as King of Expected Goals.
Peter Finn
