Do you get angry when relegation is predicted for Brighton?
How do you feel when a pundit predicts relegation for Brighton? I ask because the backlash directed towards one-time Sky Sports presenter Richard Keys for suggesting a 2024-25 season of struggle has been fantastic and manic.
Fantastic, because it has given Albion supporters the perfect excuse to mock Keys for numerous things. Like his notoriously hairy hands. Or getting sacked for making ‘prehistoric’ comments about women. Or having an alleged affair with and then marrying his daughter’s friend, just the 31 years younger than him.
Manic, because Brighton supporters have also flipped their lids at the idea of Brighton being involved in a relegation battle.
Keys wrote: “Put Brighton down for relegation. What a strange appointment they’ve made – 31-year-old Fabian Hurzeler.”
“There’s his first problem. He’s younger than many of his key players – Jason Steele (33), Lewis Dunk (32), Joel Veltman (32), Pascal Gross (32), James Milner (38) and Danny Welbeck (33). He could lose his dressing all too easily if he gets off on the wrong foot.”
“Good luck to him. I’ve said many times that I’ve got a real soft spot for Brighton, but I fear they’re going down the same path as their near neighbours Southampton. There’s only so many times that you can go to the ‘clever’ well before you find it’s run dry.”
The Albion have been here many times before, of course. Be careful what you wish for we were frequently told when Chris Hughton was replaced by Graham Potter as the Albion sought a different, more expansive way of playing.
Then there was Graeme Souness reacting to the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi. “I think it’s a risk. You’re bringing someone in who doesn’t know our game. They’re making the appointment of a manager who has no history in the English game,” Souness infamously said.
“He doesn’t know anything about the league, doesn’t know the players and the question I asked about what football people are going to be at the club to help him, he will need help. It’s a big risk.”
Nine months later and the Albion had finished sixth in the Premier League, reached an FA Cup semi final and qualified for Europe for the first ever time.
What then to make of Keys’ comments? Tin hat on here – but they aren’t actually outlandish. Other than the European Super League Elite Six and the Saudi Sportswashing project at Newcastle United, any of the other 13 Premier League clubs could feasibly be relegated every year.
Southampton. Leicester City. Burnley. Stoke City. Sheffield United. All went from qualifying for or being close to Europe to relegation in a matter of seasons. Unless you are one of the mega rich, the danger of relegation is always there.
And to an outsider, the danger might well appear to hang heavy over Brighton going into 2024-25. Nine points from a possible 36 over the final 12 matches of last season is relegation form.
Even if there were mitigating circumstances for that terrible run of performances and results. Injuries. Fatigue. De Zerbi citing a lack of motivation.
What happens with Pascal Gross will potentially have a huge bearing on the Albion next season. If Gross leaves Brighton this summer, the Brighton need to find a way of replacing his 18 goal involvements in 2023-24. Gross departing creates a massive hole which does not look like it can be easily – or cheaply – filled.
Whisper it quietly, but Keys might well have a point regarding Hurzeler too. Not so much his age, but a lack of experience.
He arrives at the Amex with only 18 months as a professional manager under his belt in Bundesliga 2. On paper, Hurzeler represents the biggest gamble since Sami Hyypia. And we all remember how that turned out.
Tony Bloom may have made millions out of gambling – but even the best back the wrong horse sometimes. Hyypia being Exhibit A. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Hurzeler ends up being a risk too far.
Only time will tell. And whether Gross stays. And what Brighton do in the transfer market. Who Hurzeler has in his backroom team. If he can overcome a very difficult set of fixtures to open the campaign.
The number of factors at play which remain undecided provide the one reason for criticism of Keys predicting relegation for Brighton.
Who knows what the Albion squad will look like by the time Hurzeler names his first competitive starting XI at Goodison Park on Saturday 17th August?
Then there remains the ticking PSR timebomb. If the Premier League show a spine and chuck the book at Manchester City over their 115 FFP charges, the Citizens could fill one of the relegation places.
Oh how we will laugh at Abu Dhabi and their great sports washing project being in tatters if that is the case.
Other clubs beyond City might find themselves hit with points deductions. The 2024-25 relegation places may well be decided off-the-pitch by lawyers and administrators rather than on it.
In some ways, this looks like the ideal season to take the risk on a rookie manager if you are a well-run club with no PSR issues.
Even if Hurzeler does prove to be as bad as an appointment as Keys is suggesting, the likelihood is three teams will find themselves with less points than Brighton after 38 games.
Or Keys could be spectacularly wrong based on what happens on the pitch. Hurzeler could take to English football like a duck to water, living up to the hype as the next Julian Nagelsmann.
Who is to say the new man will not exceed even the impact De Zerbi made? That this time next season, we will not all be laughing at Keys whilst still celebrating Brighton winning the FA Cup and securing Champions League qualification?
The point of all this rambling is that Albion fans should not be so precious about the opinion of Keys. Be thankful instead that you don’t have hairy hands.
