Analysing how wasteful Brighton forwards have really been in 2020-21

Much has been written and said about Brighton & Hove Albion’s slow start to the 2020-21 season with the general consensus being that the blame for the Seagulls having just one Premier League win on the board lies with wasteful forwards.

These accusations are based on the statistic you are probably bored to death of hearing by now. Brighton have taken 105 shots in their eight Premier League games so far. Only Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have managed more.

That number suggests that chance creation is not a problem. What is letting Brighton down is what happens when they attempt to finish off those opportunities; a conversion rate of 11.55% the reason that the Seagulls’ forwards are finding themselves criticised for being wasteful.

But is this criticism justified? And if so, which players should it actually be directed at? We have decided to analyse how wasteful Brighton forwards have really been in 2020-21.

Neal Maupay – 21 shots, 10 on target (42%), 4 goals (19%)
Neal Maupay has born the brunt of supporter’s frustrations, not helped by the fact that Graham Potter was moved to drop him because of concerns regarding his attitude. A player who appears to miss easy chances at the same time as apparently having an overinflated ego is always likely to be a focus for ire.

Maupay puts 48% of his shots on target, the best numbers by some distance of any Brighton player with over five efforts so far this season. That is good news for the Frenchman – when he shoots, it at least tends to go vaguely near the target half the time.

The trouble Maupay has is beating the goalkeeper. Anyone who has watched him play this season can tell you that as his catalogue of misses includes giving Vicente Guaita of Crystal Palace and Sam Johnstone of West Bromwich Albion a succession of straightforward saves.

In fact, when you think of Maupay’s misses in 2020-21 there is not one which was due to an outstanding piece of goalkeeping. He is placing routine chances that a £20 million centre forward should be converting straight at opposition goalkeepers.

Maupay’s percentages are also massaged by the fact that two of goals – and therefore shots on target – have come from penalties against Newcastle United and Manchester United. Take those away and he has eight of 19 on target for 42%. Two goals in open play means he converts 10% of his shots.

The difference between his on-target percentage and his conversion percentage makes it clear that Maupay needs to start putting his numerous shots out of the way of defenders and goalkeepers if Brighton are to climb away from the relegation zone.

Leandro Trossard – 16 shots, 6 on target (32%), 1 goal (6.25%)
Leandro Trossard has had a strange 2020-21 campaign – and we do not just mean because he returned for pre-season looking like an emo extra from the Twilight movies.

No, Trossard’s strangeness stems from the fact that an incredibly high number of his shots rattle the woodwork. He hit both posts and the crossbar in Brighton’s 3-2 defeat to Manchester United and has struck the frame of the goal on one other occasion.

Technically, hitting the woodwork counts as a shot off target. You cannot come much close to scoring however, and if those four Trossard efforts had been an inch in a beneficial direction, he would be on five goals and Brighton’s leading scorer. That would push his on-target percentage up to 62.5%.

As the great Liam Brady once said though, if me granny had balls she would be me grandad. Unlike Maupay, Trossard is beating the goalkeeper but not the post or bar. That is the area which he needs to work on.

Aaron Connolly – 6 shots, 2 on target (33%), 1 goal (16%)
The most startling aspect of Aaron Connolly’s statistics is his low productivity. In three starts and three substitute appearances, Connolly has managed just six shots on target. Connolly gets though more VKs in 20 minutes in Shoosh on a Saturday night than he has had shots in 2020-21.

There are two possible reasons. The first is that Connolly is out of form. Following the 2-1 defeat at Spurs, The Athletic reported that Andi Zeqiri had been named on the bench because the Kosovan striker had jumped ahead of Connolly in the pecking order. If that is true, then it suggests Potter shares the belief that Connolly is struggling at the moment.

The second is that 3-4-1-2 does not make the best of Connolly’s talents in terms of getting him into shooting positions. Most of his goals have come when cutting in from the left, something we have seen him do sparingly this season, except at Newcastle United, where – funnily enough – he scored.

If Connolly’s lack of shots is down to the second reason, then one way to get Brighton scoring more goals would be to get him more involved by devising a way that plays to his strengths.

Danny Welbeck – 4 shots, 1 on target (25%), 0 goals
Data gathered from just one Premier League start for Brighton against Burnley in which he was not fully fit will not tell us much about what Danny Welbeck can bring to the party in terms of making the Albion’s forwards less wasteful.

Twice against the Clarets he was denied by decent stops from Nick Pope. Those misses were more to do with rustiness than wastefulness; if those same opportunities came Welbeck’s way a month or two down the line when he (hopefully) has match fitness under his belt, then you would expect the outcome to be very different.

His overall top flight career has some promising numbers. Welbeck has taken 388 shots, 151 of which have been on target which equates to 39%. His 44 goals means that he scores with 29% of chances, by far and away the best conversion rate of any striker on the Albion’s books.

If Brighton can get Welbeck match sharp and firing, then he could easily be the man to start converting more of the numerous opportunities which the Albion are creating.

Adam Lallana – 5 shots, 0 on target, 0 goals
Right, I am not really sure why we have included Adam Lallana here other than it is interesting to see that he is yet to have a shot on target in his Albion career.

Of course, when Brighton signed Adam Lallana this summer it was not to score goals. He was brought in to make them.

So far, he has managed to create two big chances and watching him play football in recent weeks has been a joy to watch. There is no blame to lay at the door of Lallana for Brighton forwards being so wasteful.

Yves Bissouma – 14 shots, 1 on target (7%), 1 goal (7%)
Now I do know why we have included Yves Bissouma, for his record is important when it comes to analysing this idea that Brighton need to take more shots from the edge of the box rather than trying to “pass” the ball into the goal.

Scoring long range goals is more difficult than people think. Brighton have not really had a midfielder who has been good at it since Richard Carpenter 20 years ago, even though a lot of supporters would say that Bissouma specialises in thunderbastards from outside the box. We have seen lots of fans saying they wish he would shoot more when he gets a sight of goal.

The stats do not really back this up. Yes, his one shot on target in 2020-21 away at Everton came from distance and resulted in a Premier League Goal of the Month nomination. But his 13 other efforts have failed to bother any other goalkeeper.

This feeds into a longer trend. Bissouma’s only other Premier League came at Burnley and again it was a long ranger. Two goals in 57 appearances is not a particularly good return, especially for a midfielder as talented and highly thought of as Bissouma. Potter eluded to this towards the end of last season, saying that he wanted to see Bissouma add more goals to his game.

That will not happen unless he stops shooting from distance so frequently. Accuracy when taking on those sorts of efforts is not the problem; it is the position he is shooting from and the skill involved in scoring regularly from 25 to 30 yards.

It would be fascinating to see how effective Bissouma could be if Brighton can get him into shooting positions in the penalty area as a true box-to-box midfielder.

Alexis Mac Allister – 1 shot, 1 on target (100%), 1 goal (100%)
Three substitute appearances. 43 minutes of Premier League football. One shot. One on target. One goal. Perhaps the way to make Brighton & Hove Albion’s forwards less wasteful is staring Potter in the face – give Alexis Mac Allister some meaningful game time?

Conclusion
All this means that there are a myriad of ways in which Brighton and their forwards in particular can become less wasteful in front of goal in the run up to Christmas.

Maupay needs to work on his finishing so he makes it less easy for goalkeepers. Trossard needs to improve his accuracy by a very small margin to avoid hitting the woodwork.

Bissouma needs to get himself into better positions and not shoot from distance as frequently. Connolly needs to get himself into better positions and shoot more frequently. Mac Allister needs to be given more opportunities to play.

And then there is Welbeck. Combine his career numbers for accuracy and conversion with the number of chances Brighton create and there is enough to suggest that once he is match fit, the goals could start flowing.

Blaming one of the forwards for how wasteful Brighton have been in front of goal in 2020-21 is harsh as there are a multitude of reasons for it.

The good news is that Potter only needs to improve one or two of those areas to have the Albion winning games. There is plenty for the Brighton boss to work with to prevent this turning into a long, hard winter.