Brighton and the fixture congestion threat to their top six hopes
The final two months of the 2022-23 Premier League season are upon us with Brighton eyeing up a top six finish and success in the FA Cup.
Based on what we have seen since Roberto De Zerbi replaced Glow Up Graham Potter in September, the Albion should fear playing nobody.
On their day, they can go toe-to-toe and beat the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. Manchester City too were more worried than most make them at the Etihad Stadium when the Seagulls visited in October in the early days of the De Zerbi era.
There is though one threat which could scupper those dreams of Europe and a first major trophy in Albion history, notwithstanding the 1910 Charity Shield.
Fixture congestion. With a controversial World Cup requiring a six week break in the middle of the campaign, 2022-23 was going to be incredibly busy even without the unusual number of disruptions Brighton have suffered from.
Crystal Palace at home was lost to a train strike. Plucky Little Bournemouth away to the passing of the Queen. The Albion’s safe passage to the final four of the FA Cup has seen games against Manchester United and Manchester City require rearranging.
Likewise, Newcastle United making it to Wembley in the Carabao Cup scuppered the scheduled date for Brighton’s trip to the Saudi Sportswashers.
Six matches of 38 being moved means the Seagulls have seen 15 percent of their fixtures pushed back. Which did not necessarily need to become a problem had the rearranged games been distributed evenly over the season.
Palace and Bournemouth could have been fitted in at any point between October and February. Newcastle in February or March, as soon as it was confirmed the Toon were headed to Wembley.
Instead, the Premier League in all their wisdom slotted in only Palace at home to the middle of March. Brighton now face 13 games in eight weeks with a potential 14th to come in the FA Cup final if De Zerbi masterminds a semi final win over United.
The Newcastle and Manchester City matches are still yet to be given new dates. No matter when they are finally scheduled, the Albion are going to be playing twice a week virtually every week from this point on.
Whereas the European Super League Elite Six clubs have expensively assembled squads to cope with such congestion, Brighton do not.
The Albion bench most weeks is made up of talented but young individuals, like Julio Enciso and Facundo Buonanotte. Any injuries caused by fatigue could hurt Brighton should they end up having to pitch inexperienced players into the fire of a top six fight.
What will help the Seagulls is that De Zerbi seems to have been planning for such an intense finish for some time, going back to when the winter break ended.
Most Premier League managers simply opt for the easy approach when it comes to managing player game time; do not play them in the FA Cup or League Cup.
De Zerbi however wants to win, no matter the competition. Knowing that the likes of Lewis Dunk, Alexis Mac Allister, Pascal Gross and Moises Caicedo were going to feature in competitions other clubs treat as lesser has meant De Zerbi giving more thought to when he rests players than simply giving them a week off for Middlesbrough or Stoke away.
That Albion fans have spent the past week worrying how quickly 34,000 tickets will sell for the FA Cup semi final tells you the approach has worked in the world’s greatest cup competition.
But it may also bear fruit in the Premier League with Brighton chasing their first ever top six finish and the European place which comes with it.
Evan Ferguson and Danny Welbeck have been sensibly rotated up front, one being carefully managed to avoid overexertion at the start of his career and the other with his injury record in mind.
Having been a constant presence in the starting XI since his summer 2020 arrival from Ajax, Joel Veltman was named on the bench against Arsenal, Liverpool, Leicester and West Ham.
De Zerbi rates Veltman highly, so this can only be because he wanted to protect the dependable Dutch defender for the challenges ahead.
Injuries have handily meant Levi Colwill and Adam Webster swapping places frequently. Suspension has given Mac Allister a rest. Caicedo has benefitted from suspension and being placed on gardening leave following the Arsenal transfer saga.
It would otherwise have been interesting to see how De Zerbi treated those two had they not been treated to enforced time off.
Not even Dunk has been immune. The Brighton captain may be far too important to leave out completely, but for the first time in his Albion career he has found himself being substituted on a couple of occasions in matches De Zerbi felt were safe.
De Zerbi would appear to have Brighton about as well prepared for playing twice a week as he can. And whilst maintaining the form that has pushed the Albion into contention for Europe will be difficult with such fixture congestion, it is not the first time Brighton have been here.
The chasing pack in the 2010-11 League One season all pinned their hopes on Gus Poyet He Who Must Not Be Named’s Seagulls suffering a blowout when they faced eight games in four weeks through March.
Poyet You Know Who and his players instead proved just how worthy champions they were, winning all eight matches as they steamrollered their way to promotion and then the title.
To set a post-war club record for consecutive victories is a feat impressive on its own; to do it in the space of 31 days ranks as one of the most phenomenal achievements in Albion history.
Mad March was one of the most exciting months many of us have experienced as Albion supporters. But if De Zerbi and this squad can overcome their own fixture congestion and rewrite the history books in the process, that would be even better.
Strap yourselves in, folks. The next two months is going to be quite the ride.
