Brighton facing difficult decision over future of Neal Maupay

Someone at the Albion has got a bloody hard decision to make about the Brighton future of Neal Maupay, following the revelation that Italian side Salernitana have submitted a £15 million bid for the French forward.

The news was revealed in The Athletic on Friday evening and came somewhat out of blue. It provided a very real distraction from Manchester City and their tedious pursuit to sign Marc Cucurella, which has now entered the phase of Pep Guardiola publicly trying to unsettle a player he covets.

Just get Sheikh Mansour (personal wealth of £17 billion) to meet Tony Bloom’s asking price, then we can all get on with our lives.

The Maupay situation is one layered with much more complexity. It makes A Brief History of Time by Stephen Hawkin seem like a copy of The Beano.

Central to Maupay’s future is his contract situation. His current deal expires in the summer of 2023. From January, he can open talks with any foreign club about a free transfer away from the Amex.

If Brighton do not want to see a player they paid £20 million to sign from Brentford walk away for nothing, they realistically have to sell Neal Maupay in this window.

That could be overcome by negotiating a new deal with Maupay. There are no guarantees he would sign anything offered though, and nobody could really blame him.

Maupay barely featured from the start of April onwards as Graham Potter turned Brighton’s form around. Danny Welbeck was played as a lone striker with either Enock Mwepu or Alexis Mac Allister at number 10 just behind Dat Guy.

Deniz Undav and Kaoru Mitoma arriving from Union SG – plus the capture of the exciting Julio Enciso – has increased competition for forward spots to levels not seen at the Albion since promotion to the Premier League.

The sensible thing for Neal Maupay to do is wait and see where he stands in the pecking order before extending his stay at Brighton.

Signing a four year deal with so much uncertainty over the role he has to play could end up as Maupay committing himself to a lot of time on the bench at a club he could have departed as a free agent – and with a subsequent juicy signing on bonus at wherever he ends up.

Any club who lets a player tick towards the final year of their deal risks such uncertainty causing reluctance to sign a new contract.

Had Brighton managed to tie Maupay down at some point between last summer and January 2022, then they would not be in this situation.

The prospect of losing Maupay on a free and his time out of the team at the end of 2021-22 give reasons for Brighton to consider the £15 million Salernitana bid.

And for most other players in a situation whereby they are entering their final year, a sale is normally the desired outcome to recoup some sort of financial compensation. See Yves Bissouma, who went to Spurs for miles below his true value earlier in the window.

Brighton though could swallow the Bissouma sale because of their potential in-house replacements and that his departure would not necessarily have a hugely detrimental impact on the team.

Maupay is different. The currency he deals in is goals, the one area Brighton struggle. He has been the Albion’s top scorer in each of the last three Premier League seasons, contributing over a third of their goals in that time. A similar percentage to Glenn Murray in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

Replacing 26 goals and seven assists is a lot easier said than done. Take away the nine he netted in 2021-22 and Brighton’s record-breaking ninth place finish becomes 14th spot in the table. Maupay was single-handedly worth seven points last season.

To sell Maupay now would be a huge risk. He remains the only striker the Albion have with a proven fitness and scoring track record in the Premier League.

Flog Maupay and you are relying on Welbeck staying fit for the majority of the season. Dat Guy did enjoy an injury-free end to 2021-22 and has been photographed in pre-season looking like Thor’s stronger brother following a summer in which he has clearly been putting the work in.

But it would still be a huge gamble to allow Maupay to move to Salernitana on the basis Welbeck is going to be involved in 30 games for the first time since the 2011-12 season.

Banking on Undav and Mitoma bringing their Belgium form to the Premier League would be an even bigger gamble. The Jupiler League is a million miles away from English top flight football.

There are countless examples of forwards who scored for fun in lesser European competitions, only to flop in England. Picking two names completely at random… Jurgen Locadia and Alireza Jahanbakhsh.

If Maupay were to be sold this summer, Welbeck got injured early in the campaign and Undav and Mitoma struggle as Locadia and Jahanbakhsh did, where are the Albion’s goals coming from?

Can Brighton really afford to get rid of the joint-second top flight scorer in their history, when the alternatives have such big question marks over their injury records and ability at this level of football?

When Brighton signed Locadia in January 2018, they did not then ship out Murray in the belief that the new man was a ready-made replacement before even seeing him in the Premier League. Likewise when Jahanbakhsh arrived six months later.

Just as well, because imagine if they had? Gambling that the new signings made for a combined £31 million would be better than the existing option with a track record would have led to the Albion’s Premier League adventure coming to an end long ago.

Deciding whether to cash in on Maupay now and gamble on the new players and Welbeck delivering, or risk losing Maupay on a free but keeping a proven Premier League forward, is hard.

There are arguments and merits on both sides. It is no exaggeration to say that either route could have a massive bearing on what happens to Brighton in the 2022-23 season.

It is the sort of decision where David Weir, Potter, Paul Winstanley and anyone else involved has to earn their handsome salaries.

For what it is worth, the WAB view is that you keep Maupay for a year. In the grand scheme of Premier League prize money, missing out on £15 million is a drop in the ocean compared to fighting a relegation battle because you have lost your only source of goals.

If Undav and Mitoma hit the ground running and Welbeck stays fit, then happy days. Best though to find out whilst having a capable alternative still at the club. Right now, Maupay is worth more than £15 million to Brighton. If Salernitana were to up their offer though…

Which brings us nicely onto the final point. As somebody pointed out on Twitter, we know how tightly the Albion control what Andy Naylor and Brian Owen report, especially when it comes to transfers.

If Naylor has been told by Brighton that Salernitana have bid £15 million for Neal Maupay, then the club clearly want it to become public knowledge.

It is a not-so-subtle way of letting other clubs across Europe know that they are open to offers for Maupay this summer, presumably due to that contract situation. And it might start a bidding war, which is obviously in the Albion’s interests.

To add to the intrigue, reports from Italy suggest that Salernitana offered much less than the £15 million being reported by The Athletic.

Have Brighton relied on Naylor to deliberately miss-report the figure at in the hope that a bigger club than the Serie A strugglers come in with a £20 million bid?

It will be fascinating to see how this one plays out over the coming weeks. Or whether another possible scenario comes to pass – that Maupay goes, and a new striker comes in? Watch this space.