Brighton forwards: Are they good enough for the Premier League?
For much of the 2020-21 season, Brighton & Hove Albion’s position in the bottom six of the Premier League has been put down to bad luck – but with two-thirds of the campaign completed, the penny is finally starting to drop and the blame for the Seagulls finding themselves in yet another relegation battle is being laid at the door of their forwards.
There is nothing unlucky about having 60 shots in three games, scoring just once and taking only a solitary point. To be underperforming your xG by 18 is not because of misfortune, rather the fact that you are not taking enough of the numerous chances being created every week.
In public, Graham Potter is still backing his centre forwards. Following the 1-0 defeat at West Brom – 15 shots, two missed penalties, zero goals scored – the Brighton boss told The Argus: “I certainly believe in the players. I believe they can score and we have to respond in the next match. I see the guys every day. I see their quality. I know their quality.”
Presumably, Potter is thinking something very different in private. A highlight reel of Brighton forwards missing easy chances in 2020-21 so far would be longer than the uncut version of the Lords of the Rings trilogy.
Should the Albion manage to avoid relegation from the Premier League, then it is clear that a more clinical forward has to be the club’s transfer priority in the summer.
Even with finances as tight as they are because of the pandemic, the Albion cannot keep repeating the same mistakes of not strengthening the forward line or having Potter believe he can coach an improvement in output from the current options.
The question then becomes what happens to Brighton & Hove Albion’s existing forwards? Of those at the Amex, which are good enough for the Premier League and which are not?
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay tops the scoring charts with seven goals, a decent total for a striker playing in a side who have spent pretty much the entire season below 15th in the table.
Maupay though has been guilty of some pretty terrible misses. He is underperforming his xG by around 10 goals, something which is not new to the Frenchman – even when he hit 25 in his final season at Brentford, xG suggested he should have scored in the mid-30s.
That tells us that Maupay has never been clinical in his career. For a club whose Moneyball-style transfer strategy focusses heavily on such stats, the Albion must have known exactly what they were getting when they signed Maupay – a player who will score goals, but one who will miss a shedload too.
Based on conversion rate, Maupay is a poor Premier League striker. His game though is about much more than goals. He never stops running, he is a good hold up player and although his decision making can sometimes let him down, he does have a decent footballing brain.
Glenn Murray is a man who knows a thing or too about strikers and he agrees. Back in December, Murray said of Maupay: “I’m not sure if he is an out-and-out number nine. He likes to drop down into the number 10 space. He likes to link the play. He is an exciting player who I expect to keep improving.”
Maupay is suffering because he is being asked to be Brighton’s main source of goals. As Murray said, Maupay is more suited to playing as a second striker in support of a clinical finisher – ironically, the exact sort of partnership the two of them could have struck up last season if Potter had used Murray.
Should Brighton deploy Maupay in such a role, then he is more than good enough for the top flight. Play him alongside that new centre forward next season and the Maupay doubters will soon disappear.
Aaron Connolly
In a season full of astonishing misses, Aaron Connolly is the player who has been guilty of the most astonishing. He has been off target when faced with open goals from six yards out in the 1-0 defeat at West Brom and two yards out in the 1-1 home draw with Sheffield United, not to mention that miss against Spurs which prompted him to delete his Instagram account.
Connolly’s finishing clearly needs a lot of work. It seems to go forgotten though that he is still only 21-years-old and he was chucked in at the deep end last season, Potter’s dislike of Murray leaving Connolly and Maupay as Brighton’s only two out-and-out striker options.
He clearly has talent. Connolly panics opposition defences when he runs at them and there is a touch of the young Wayne Rooneys about him with his pace, strength and the way he likes to cut inside from the left flank.
But potential does not mean he is up to Premier League standard yet. For much of this season, Connolly has looked like he could benefit from a loan spell in the Championship in 2021-22.
Playing week in, week out would aid his development and if he starts scoring goals then his confidence will return. Dropping down a division would also allow Brighton to make a better judgement on whether he has the tools to make it in the top flight, so it would be a move to suit all parties.
Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck’s two Brighton goals to date have been finishes which none of the Albion’s other forwards would have been capable of. The equaliser against Sheffield United spared the embarrassment of losing to the 10-men of a side who had not won a game all season and his run and dink over Emiliano Martinez away at Aston Villa was a beautiful goal.
Welbeck’s trouble has been staying fit. He has started only seven games. Brighton knew what they were getting when they signed him following his release from Watford, hence why he was put on a performance-incentivised one-year contract.
It was a risk-free deal, If Welbeck avoided injury, Brighton would have a former England international leading their line. And if he struggled to get out of the treatment room, the Albion could simply cut their losses at the end of the season.
What Welbeck does over the final third of the campaign will determine whether Brighton extend his deal. He needs a run of games and he needs more goals, but his talent is not in doubt. It is his body over which there are question marks.
Percy Tau
In the name of the Lion of Judah, amen! Since his arrival in January amid much fanfare, Percy Tau has barely featured in the Premier League, making it hard to pass judgement on whether he is good enough for English football.
Tau had an encouraging first start in the 1-0 defeat against Manchester City but followed that up by looking lost coming off the bench at The Leeds United.
Other than starts in the FA Cup against Blackpool and Leicester City, his game time has been restricted as Potter looks to slowly bed him in.
The good news is that unlike most of the other forwards Brighton have, Tau has not squandered an easy chance. The bad news is that is because he has not had a memorable shot on target.
On what we have seen so far, Tau looks to be more a supporting striker than an out-and-out goal scorer – and in any case, until he gets a run of games, we will not know if he can provide the answer to making Brighton more clinical.
Andi Zeqiri
Like Tau, Andi Zeqiri has had to make do with most of his minutes coming in the FA Cup. His performance at Leicester had the hallmarks of a young Murray in the way he played on the shoulder of the last defender, held the ball up and was offside on countless occasions.
From one of those offsides, he produced a lovely little dink over Danny Ward. If that is a sign of his finishing ability, then he could yet be the forward Brighton are looking for.
It is however a massive step-up to come from the Swiss second tier to the Premier League. To then be expected to fire Brighton to safety is heaping a lot of pressure on the shoulders of a young and inexperienced striker.
Like Connolly, Zeqiri could benefit from a spell in the Championship. The club made a rod for their own back by saying he was coming straight into the senior squad amid supporter unrest in the summer at a lack of new centre forward.
Sending him our on loan would mean that rather than getting five minutes once a month from the bench with the Albion, Zeqiri could play first team football in England and gain the experience he needs. Then we would be able to see if he really is the heir to Murray.
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Everyone loves a trier and goodness me, Alireza Jahanbakhsh is that at least. You cannot fault his attitude in sticking around at Brighton to try and become one of Graham Potter’s first choice forwards and his tears at finally scoring a Premier League goal will long be remembered.
For all his efforts, Jahanbakhsh is three-and-a-half seasons into his Albion career and now is the time to be realistic – the Iranian’s time at the Albion has not worked out, as a return of two league goals from 41 appearances is testament to.
Jahanbakhsh deserves to be playing first team football for his professionalism. He will not get that at Brighton. With two years still to run on his five year deal, the Seagulls should cut their losses this summer and allow him to move on for the sake of his career.
Florin Andone
Last but by no means least, the most intriguing name on the list of Brighton forwards is a certain Florin Andone. The Romanian was last seen in an Albion shirt trying to end the career of Southampton’s Yan Valery back in August 2019, picking up a straight red card for his troubles with just 28 minutes of Seagulls v Saints played.
Andone was subsequently packed off to Galatasaray, where he gave an interview to The Athletic saying that he hoped he would not have to return to Brighton. Bridges well and truly burned.
Or so we thought. Andone’s time in Turkey was injury-hit and he returned to the Amex in the summer to recover from a serious knee injury. Now approaching full fitness, there are plenty of Albion fans who feel that he could be the man to improve Brighton’s conversion rate.
It is an intriguing prospect. On the one hand, this looks like a classic case of a player’s ability improving in the eyes of supporters all the while he does not play. When Andone left, there was barely a murmur against his departure.
On the other hand, Brighton are desperate – he surely could not do any worse if presented with an easy chance inside the penalty area than the Albion’s forwards have managed so far this season, could he?
The question mark comes over his temperament. Prior to his move to Galatasaray, Andone scored six goals and missed six games through suspension.
If he still cannot control his aggression, then bringing him back into the first team picture would be a waste of time. There is little point in starting a player who is as likely to leave you playing for over an hour with 10 men because of a stupid red card as he is to score a goal.
Is Andone the answer? His previous spell at the club would suggest not as it was hardly goal-laden and he is surely in the last chance saloon in terms of discipline. Try and snap another Southampton player in half or decapitate someone from West Brom with an elbow again and that will be that.
Stranger things have happened though and given the season that Brighton are having, Potter might as well give him a go. It will either end in tears of joy or tears of despair.
