Comparing Evan Ferguson with other teenage striker sensations

Brighton striker Evan Ferguson is one of the hottest young properties in the Premier League. A sensational teenage striker seemingly with the world at his feet.

Much of his future football success will depend on how he develops over the next few years. Will he follow in the footsteps of Alan Shearer and Harry Kane? Or will, despite a promising start to his career, he fade from view like Francis Jeffers and Federico Macheda?

Irish football fans will be wondering if he is destined to become the next Robbie Keane? Or the next Aaron Connolly? Brighton fans know only too well the story of the latter after he burst onto the scene in such style with two goal against Spurs in October 2019.

The hype surrounding Evan Ferguson moved up yet another notch following two more goals for Brighton against Southampton, taking him onto 10 in all competitions for the season.

Out of numerous examples of pundits offering a eulogy, there was this from Harry Redknapp putting Ferguson in his BetVictor Premier League team of the week:

“My star man this week, Evan Ferguson. I know he’s still so young so I don’t want to put pressure on the lad, but what a player he could develop into.”

“To me, I think he’s got everything you’d want in a striker. He strikes a great ball and he just looks like a natural goal scorer.”

“For the first goal, the way he shifted the ball out his feet and got a powerful low shot away, it reminded of Alan Shearer. I can’t wait to watch more of this fella.”

So just how good is Evan Ferguson? The table below shows 101GreatGoals.com list of Premier League goal scorers per minutes played over the past 30 years.

Whilst Ferguson has a statistically insignificant sample size and does not qualify for the list, we have added him in anyway. It shows Ferguson’s performances to date in a very high context.

The fascinating question for future seasons is how will Ferguson develop compared to other teenage sensations? The list below shows the top teenage goalscorers in Premier League history.

If Ferguson continues at his current rate of one goal per 137 minutes, he could easily hit another 15 in 2023-24 to go with the six he already has. depending on injuries and rotation.

One can therefore realistically expect him to join this list next season, perhaps even climbing above Mason Greenwood and into fourth spot.

Despite Ferguson’s promise, it is imperative at this stage that Brighton fans take the realistic perspective that his age and limited period of success so far require.

Whilst some teenage sensations have gone onto have great Premier League careers, others after a brief illumination have quickly faded. Jeffers and Macheda being the biggest examples.

Evan Ferguson club seesaw

Let us start by looking at how well Ferguson could do for his club. Over time, it stands to logic that Ferguson will become a Shearer or Kane, being more comparitive in style to those two strikers than he is Michael Owen or Wayne Rooney.

In 2009 at the age of 17, Macheda made equivalent headlines to those currently being written by Ferguson when scoring twice in his first two Manchester United appearances.

That though was as good as it got for Macheda. In the end, he scored four goals in his 19 United appearances. Sadly for Macheda it was all downhill from there.

A series of loans followed including Doncaster Rovers, Queens Park Rangers and Birmingham City. He did at least enjoy a brief goal scoring resurgence with 10 goals in 18 games at St Andrews.

Released by United in 2014, Macehda first joined Cardiff City and is currently found on loan with Apoel Nicosia in Cyprus.

Jeffers made a sensational start to his career at Everton, making the first team at 16 in 1997 and scoring 17 goals for them whilst still a teenager.

In 2001, Arsene Wenger spent £8 million to take him to Arsenal. Jeffers made just 22 appearances in three years at Highbury, dropping down the pyramid with spells at Sheffield Wednesday, Australian side Newcastle Jets and Motherwell, before ending his career at Accrington Stanley.

It is not just with Brighton that Ferguson is finding his performances surrounded by hype. He is already hailed as the saviour of Irish football. Three Irish teenagers have scored two goals in a Premier League match – Ferguson, Keane and Connolly.

Evan Ferguson international seesaw
So as it stands, we can equally place Ferguson in the middle of the international seesaw, the same place he sits on the club seesaw.

For Ireland, he has his nation’s record scorer with 68 goals in 146 caps Keane to one side of him. On the other, Connolly with eight caps and zero goals. Although to be fair to Connolly, he is still only 23. If he sorts his career out, he could yet start moving towards Keane.

At this stage, some Irish pundits hope that Ferguson may even move become a better player than Robbie Keane. Republic of Ireland assistant coach John O’Shea has expressed his belief that Ferguson could break Keane’s goals record.

Speaking as an ambassador for Just Eat, O’Shea said: “He’s showing already in the Premier League for such a young age.”

“Seeing him up close, his dedication and his talent, his goal scoring ability, how he finishes. First and foremost he’s one of the youngest ever players for Ireland in terms of playing at that elite level, the highest level in and around world football for such a young age.

“That already tells you what a talent he is. You don’t need me to tell you he’s a very good player. Everyone can see it for themselves when they see him play against the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, everyone sees his talent”.

Evan Ferguson v Aaron Connolly
What of the comparison between Ferguson and Connolly? Some might think it folly comparing the two; either it leaves a glass-half empty sobering thought in terms of what might happen to Ferguson next season, or a glass half-full that Connolly might yet come good.

Interestingly, Connolly’s scoring record at Under 21s level was considerably better than Ferguson’s. Connolly looked a top class finisher in Premier League 2 for Brighton, to the point he was named PL2 Player of the Season 2018-19.

One reason to avoid comparing the two is that Ferguson and Connolly are clearly very different players. And whilst Connolly has the lead on pace (not that Ferguson has a weakness there), Ferguson is better in virtually every other department.

Strength, physique including aerial ability, using both feet and linking with team mates – witness his sublime assist for Solly March against Liverpool. Ferguson appears to have the advantage.

The table below compares the Premier League records of the two players to date. One aspect to consider is that Ferguson is playing in a Brighton side with the fourth most Premier League goals this season. Connolly meanwhile was in the goal-shy Potter era.

What is most noteworthy about Ferguson – and again, it is a statistically smaller sample size – is he has outperformed his xG, even when hitting the woodwork three times.

This essentially means Ferguson is such a good striker as to take chances he is not expected to finish. He has notably scored with his head, left foot and right foot. All of Connolly’s goals have come with his right.

The final notable differential to Ferguson’s play looks to be his temperament and awareness. This was even evidenced by his one booking so far, from a very ‘clever’ moment-changing professional foul against Everton.

Ferguson plays with a maturity beyond his years; an attitude which the likes of Connolly and Macheda seemed to lack but which Kane and Shearer had to possess to make it to the top.

Roberto De Zerbi spoke about this following Ferguson’s brace in that 3-1 win over Southampton: “Ferguson’s improvement has been incredible. He’s playing like an old player but he is only 18. There is a good dressing room with the mentality to help all our younger players.”

Ferguson in turn has praised the impact De Zerbi has had on his career so far: “He (De Zerbi) just gives you confidence with the way we play. You know what you’re doing in the system, you know what your job is.”

“It doesn’t matter what young you are, you have to put a shift in. The attitude we have is it doesn’t matter what age you are if you can play, you can play.”

And Ferguson certainly can play.

Peter Finn