De Zerbi eyeing up Brighton history on three fronts
After what seemed like the longest January in the history of the Gregorian calendar, February is disappearing faster than Sheffield United’s hopes of avoiding the drop.
Even with its extra leap year day, February will be done next week. The end of the 2023-24 season now appears on the far horizon, with trophies glinting in the sun waiting for the team ribbons to be tied on.
Enough of that tv-style nonsense. Let’s take a speculative look ahead at the remaining games for Brighton, try to ascertain where Roberto De Zerbi’s super Seagulls might finish… and with what to their name.
Two of the things in the Sky Sports commentary of our 5-0 humbling of the Blades struck me. First was the Albion’s recent Premier League away results, or lack of them.
Under Graham Potter, away form was consistently better than home form. That has flipped recently under De Zerbi, with victory at Bramall Lane being our first on the road in the league since beating Nottingham Forest 3-2 back in November.
It has been easy to forget or simply not realise that Premier League wins have been hard to come by away from home thanks to some brilliant successes on the road in FA Cup and Europa League.
The second statistic related to the Albion’s record against the bottom 10 clubs compared with top 10. Now anecdotally, it has felt like Brighton usually slip up against bottom of the table sides whilst surprising the Big Six. Typical Brighton, etc, etc.
But apparently, we have been undefeated against lower placed sides for some 10 games or more. Defeats at Stamford Bridge and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (get a proper name already) bear out both these trends, even if Chelsea are hilariously floundering in mid table.
Broadly speaking then, this season has seen Brighton do better at home and against opponents sitting 11th or lower. Knowing this, how does the remainder of the campaign shape up?
The good news is we face the majority of our remaining top 10 clashes at the Amex. All of Manchester City, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester United must visit Sussex.
So too Chelsea, although again are they really a top 10 side these days? Only away days to Liverpool and Newcastle United remain.
It is probably reasonable to assume defeats against City, Arsenal and Liverpool. Even though I think on a good day we have a chance of stealing wins or points, as we did at the Emirates to end the Gunners’ title chances last season.
Between eight and 10 points from 21 is a realistic target in the seven remaining games against fellow top 10 opponents… if we are at our best.
Against the lower placed sides, Everton and Forest visit the Amex with away games at Fulham, Brentford, Burnley and Bournemouth.
A maximum of 18 points are up for grabs from encounters with teams in the bottom half of the table. I think 12-14 is a reasonable target.
To summarise all that, Brighton have five home and two away games left against top 10 teams. Two home and four away from bottom half opponents.
And I am estimating 20 to 24 points being added to the current total of 38. Hit the lower mark and a season ending total of 58 was enough to finish 10th last season.
Secure the higher mark and 62 is the exact same as Brighton achieved last season when finishing sixth and qualifying for the Europa League.
This of course is all very rough guesswork on my part. Others will have more optimistic or pessimistic estimates. The supercomputers quoted by the bookies and sports pages meanwhile have us finishing eighth, outside of the UEFA qualification places.
Taking guesswork and algorithms out of it and looking at the cold, hard facts presented by the Premier League table and we see a six point gap to in-form Manchester United in sixth. Villa in the final Champions League spot are 11 ahead.
It looks tough to catch either of those clubs, especially United who are unbeaten in all competitions since the turn of the year. Does that mean European football is off the cards for 2024-25?
Perhaps not. There is a dizzyingly complicated means by which the Premier League earns an additional Champions League place next season, and of course there are alternative routes to qualify for Europe again.
Winning the Europa League in Dublin on May 22nd would mean a place in the Champions League. Lifting the FA Cup at Wembley on May 25th would secure Europa League football. No pressure there, then.
Facing Wolves away in the fifth round of the FA Cup will be the Albion’s sternest test so far in the competition.
And then there are Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp will have his eyes on a Premier League, Europa League, FA Cup and League Cup treble as he bows out at Anfield. Neither path to a trophy looks easy for Brighton.
However, we saw the massive impact the return of our two world-class wide players Kaoru Mitoma and Simon Adingra had at Sheffield United.
Julio Enciso now looks likely to be back during the first half of March and Joao Pedro in the latter half. Jakub Moder and Tariq Lamptey showed again at Bramall Lane that they are finding form after injury. What can Ansu Fati offer in his remaining 13 league games and potentially eight tournament fixtures?
Valentin Barco has been added to the first team and could be a wild card addition to the squad for what is likely to be a packed fixture list of games between now and May.
It seems very unlikely Solly March or Jack Hinshelwood will play any further games before the summer, but the Seagulls have enough squad depth – providing there are no further major injury blows – to cope without them.
If it is the case that Roberto De Zerbi is leaving for Barcelona, Liverpool or another “big, big club” at the end of the season, he will want to go out on a high like Klopp.
De Zerbi is already a history maker with Brighton. Imagine his farewell being an open top bus tour through the city as the first ever Albion head coach to win a piece of major silverware (not counting the 1910 Charity Shield).
We are certainly in for a packed, exciting and dramatic final three months to what has been an historic 2023-24 campaign.
Warren Morgan @WarrenBHAFC
