Early odds: How does the bookies’ Premier League table look?
In this article, Peter Watton, from matched betting specialist OddsMonkey, dives into the league table of bookies’ odds for the Premier League title after the first stage in the season.
Now that a quarter of the 2019–20 season is gone, the Premier League table is really starting to take shape, with many teams starting to get a handle on whether they’ll be pushing for Europe or getting sucked into a relegation scrap. The bookmakers are also starting to get serious with their odds, with prices being shortened and lengthened to match how they think the table will end up.
With this in mind, I thought it would be a great idea to check in with how the bookies are expecting the Premier League to look come May, and whether they’re on the money this season.
Spoiler alert: All you Seagulls fans can breathe easy, your odds on to stay up — just skip down to 14th place to hear about how I think you’re doing!
1. Liverpool – 4/6
Let’s be honest, can anyone stop Liverpool this year? At the time of writing they have a 100% record and an eight-point lead over Man City. They also look to have addressed the flaw in their form from last season, which was too many draws, and that’s why the bookmakers have them as odds on for the title. The big test will be in the matches against Man City in November and April.
2. Man City – 29/20
The reigning champions have started in decent form but trail a perfect Liverpool that has won all their matches so far. Realistically, they’re the only team that can stop Jurgen Klopp’s men, though they can’t really afford to lose many more matches — they’re already halfway towards last season’s total of two. They have problems in defence too, with the important Aymeric Laporte missing.
3. Chelsea – 100/1
Despite being under a transfer ban, Frank Lampard is moulding a young squad into a consistent machine that could well make it to a Champion’s League spot. At 100/1 for the title, there’s still a gap to be bridged between the top two — check back in a couple of years and we could be talking about the club as a contender!
4. Arsenal – 125/1
After several disappointing seasons, Unai Emery has quietly been improving Arsenal. After some smart recruitment in the summer, we could see the return of Champion’s League football to the Emirates next season. The bookies still have the club a fair distance behind the top two, though.
5. Spurs – 200/1
There’s something wrong at Spurs. They should be enjoying a new lease of life and a title challenge in their new stadium, but a once consistent team is looking shaky. The bookies have them to finish fifth, but Pochettino needs to steady the ship — if he’s around long enough, that is.
6. Leicester City – 300/1
Everyone’s favourite Premier League champions from the past few years are finally starting to climb the pyramid again. After suffering a very long hangover after their unlikely triumph in 2016, they’re looking like the real deal under Brendan Rogers, and that’s why the bookies have them flirting with the Champion’s League in sixth place.
7. Man Utd – 750/1
If there’s something wrong with Spurs, then there’s a tonne of things wrong at Man Utd. What was assumed to be average form under two out of touch managers is starting to look like an issue that runs right to the core of the club. The bookies think they will recover to finish seventh, but, honestly I think they could finish in the bottom half if problems aren’t addressed quickly.
8. Wolves – 1000/1
Let’s face it, Wolves are the Portuguese national B-team, but that’s not a bad thing. They were the first team in a while that, when promoted, weren’t expected to struggle at all — and they haven’t at all. The bookmakers have them in eighth, but I can see them pushing on if Man Utd’s woes continue.
9. West Ham – 1000/1
West Ham are looking even more robust than last season when they finished a rock-solid tenth, which will delight Manuel Pellegrini who is famous for his consistent sides. It’s little surprise after a good summer, which saw them replace the likes of Andy Carroll with the likes of Sebastien Haller. The bookies have them ninth, but I can see them ending up anywhere between eighth and 12th.
10. Everton – 2000/1
Marco Silva is really starting to look like a short-term solution only, looking totally out of his depth in his second year in charge of Everton. At the time of writing, they’ve lost four on the bounce and sit in the relegation places, which makes it surprising that the bookies think they’ll finish in the top half. I don’t think they’ll go down, but I don’t think they’ll be troubling the top 10.
11. Bournemouth – 2000/1
Eddie Howe continues to do a great job at Bournemouth, and I expect that to continue. The odds have them at 11th, and I agree to an extent, though they’re one of those teams that could pop up in the top half and I wouldn’t be surprised. The real test will be if a bigger club come calling for Howe this season, as I’m not sure if he could resist a chance to go to Everton or Tottenham.
12. Crystal Palace – 2500/1
A quarter of the way in and, I hate to say it, Crystal Palace are flying in sixth — sorry! Roy Hodgson has quietly transformed a bottom of the table club into a solid prospect on a shoestring. The bookies have them as falling to 12th, and I think this is about on the money. Surely, Palace can’t keep up this form, right?
13. Burnley – 2500/1
The bookmakers have Burnley to finish in lower middle table, and I think that’s probably going to be the case. They remind me of Stoke a few years ago, where, after a few seasons of bucking people’s expectations on a low budget, the spending power of the Premier League finally ground them into relegation dust. I think Sean Dyche is savvier than Tony Pulis though, so he could well continue to beat expectations for a good while yet.
14. Brighton – 2500/1
Here, we are Seagulls fans. The bookmakers have you sitting pretty in 14th, and I’m inclined to agree! I think Graham Potter is a tactically astute manager who is perfect for getting the most out of the squad, so I believe he’ll keep you up. If Neal Maupay can carry on getting those key goals, I think you will be quite comfortable by the end of the season.
15. Southampton – 3000/1
Southampton are a funny team — one day they look like world beaters, then a week later they look like they’ve already been relegated. I think Southampton will be okay this season and the bookies agree. I like Ralph Hasenhüttl’s footballing philosophy: it isn’t too far from the pressing football Liverpool play, but I think they need to strengthen in January in key positions, especially at the back.
16. Aston Villa – 3500/1
We’re starting to get into the mire now, and I agree with the bookies in thinking Aston Villa will be right down there in May. They’re far from the worst team in the division, and certainly have the ability to finish higher than 16th. Wesley Moraes can be a goalscorer for them, so if he continues his 50% strike rate, they are probably going to be win their battle against relegation.
17. Newcastle – 5000/1
Newcastle are always entertaining, whether it’s on or off the field. They have one of the statistically worst Premier League managers in Steve Bruce, and I’m not sure he has the x-factor Rafa Benitez had. The bookies have them staying up, but I just can’t see where they’re going to find the goals: Andy Carroll will be massively injured at some point, and Joelinton is the most expensive seven-goal a season striker I’ve ever seen — £40 million!
18. Watford – 5000/1
If you tinker with something too much, you’re likely to break it, and I think that’s what’s happened with Watford. When you sack the manager that had the best win-ratio of your current Premier era (Javi Gracia – 45%) and replace him with a past manager with a worse record (Quique Sanchez Flores — 31.58%) then you went wrong somewhere. They have a talent, but things need to improve fast.
19. Sheffield Utd – 5000/1
Chris Wilder is a great motivator and knows how to get the best out of his squad, and I think he will be the reason that unfancied Sheff Utd stay up at Newcastle’s expense in the bookies’ table. They’ve made a great start to the season, and, as underdogs, remind me a little bit of Brighton when your club was first promoted to the Premier League.
20. Norwich – 5000/1
I admire Norwich for the football they try to play, but I think they will end up on the scrapheap come May 2020. Over the years, I’ve seen a few Norwich sides come up and try and play attacking football, but every time they come unstuck. They won’t necessarily finish bottom of the pile, but they will be in the bottom three.
With a lot of football to play, it remains to be seen whether the bookmakers (or myself) have got their predictions right. It’s certainly a two-horse race at the top, but the rest is there to play for!
