Numbers show world class potential of Brighton target Verbruggen

The impressive strength Brighton have in the goalkeeping department is set to be increased with reports that the Seagulls are close to completing the signing of Anderlecht number one Bart Verbruggen.

Last month, we analysed in detail the impressive young pool of goalkeepers at the Albion, arguably the most promising of any club in the Premier League.

If Brighton do finalise a deal for Verbruggen, they will be adding a player whose numbers in the Jupiler League this season highlight his world class potential.

Both Fabrizio Romano and Andy Naylor have said that Verbruggen is close to becoming a Brighton player. Romano tweeted: “Understand Brighton are advancing to the final stages of deal to sign talented goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen”.

Naylor meanwhile wrote in The Athletic: “Brighton are poised to capture Verbruggen for a fee believed to be around £17 million”.

Manchester United and Liverpool were rumoured to have considered signing Verbruggen, whilst Burnley showed concrete interest on numerous occasions with Clarets boss Vincent Kompany a big fan.

Bart Verbruggen
Verbruggen was born in the Netherlands, stands at 6’4 and is just 20-years-old. He joined Anderlecht from Dutch side NAC Breda for a modest fee of £300,000 in 2020.

Despite Verbruggen only playing seven times for Anderlecht whilst Kompany was in charge, the former Manchester City captain was impressed enough to try and make the young goalkeeper one of his first signings as Burnley boss.

The Clarets offered £5 million last summer, a bid rejected by Anderlecht. There was no interest in selling on the part of the Belgian club, who knew what a special talent they had on their hands.

Even so, Verbruggen’s rise has been swift and impressive. He only broke into the Anderlecht team once the Jupiler League resumed after the World Cup.

Since then, his performances have been really strong with just about the best statistics of any keeper in Europe. In his six months as Anderlecht number one, he did well enough to be voted Player of the Season and rack up the best goals prevented statistic of any goalkeeper in both the Belgian League and the Europa Conference.

In March, Verbruggen had his first official call-up to the Dutch senior national team for the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifiers against France and Gibraltar.

He was one of five players forced to withdraw when an illness went through the camp and is therefore still to make an international appearance. Ironically, he was replaced in the squad by Brighton’s Kjell Scherpen.

Verbruggen’s performances to date have brought significant expectation on his future. Anderlecht goalkeeping coach Frank Boeckx told Sporza: “Bart has an incredible work ethic; wanting to get better.”

“His meticulous match preparation and his will to understand the opponent. For someone his age, that is special. Bart is already very mature at the age of 20.”

“How he succeeded Hendrik Van Crombrugge – captain and a big name – without blinking, shows his mental strength. His footballing qualities are also exceptional.”

“The way he sees and executes passes, both short and long. His athleticism is also very good. He has all the qualities of a modern goalkeeper.”

KV Westerlo striker Tuur Dierckx told 90mins after playing in a goalless draw against Anderlecht and Verbruggen: “There was one player on the field who was two or three classes better than the rest. Verbruggen is not normal.”

“He will be among the top five in the world. And I mean that seriously. He has everything to become that. He plays as a number 10 from the back, his passing, that is also not normal. I was really impressed by Verbruggen.”

His most notable performances of the 2022-23 season include six successive clean sheets and three successive penalty saves in a Conference League penalty shootout. He is reportedly yet to be beaten by a shot from out the area in his Anderlecht career.

Comparing Verbruggen with other goalkeepers
Six months of statistics indicate that Verbruggen has exceptional potential. Normally, six months would be too short a period to make firm conclusions but such has been the speed at which he has established himself at Anderlecht, this is all we have to go on.

The two main save statistics which illustrate the talent of Verbruggen are the save percentage and the level of goals prevented (which seeks to measure the number of goals conceded against the goals expected from the quality of chances).

Save percentage is clearly strongly impacted by the quality of shots faced. And while it is undoubtedly impressive that he has not conceded a goal from outside the area, that presumably also means he has not faced unstoppable shots like those scored by Julio Enciso against Manchester City and Chelsea.

The table below shows Premier League performance in the last two years ranked by 2022-23 goals prevented statistics, as per FBref.com. All the goalkeepers on the list have played a minimum of 1000 minutes, compared to Verbruggen at Anderlecht.

Save % is the percentage of saves against shots on target. CS % represents 2022-23 clean sheet percentage.

As detailed above, GP is the measure of goals conceded against expectation. A positive figure means less goals conceded than expected. Cross % is the percentage of crosses into the penalty area which were successfully dealt with by the goalkeeper.

To increase Verbruggen’s sample size, we have combined his performances across both the Belgian League and Europa Conference.

There are several conclusions to make. The first is that there can be significant variability from year to year. Take for example Wolves goalkeeper Jose Sa having had the best save percentage and goals prevented in 2021-22 to being towards the bottom in 2022-23.

This questions to some extent how meaningful the figures are, particularly with only a six month sample size for Verbruggen. It could quite feasibly be the case that Verbruggen suffers a dip in performances and numbers.

Having said that and despite playing in a weaker league, Verbruggen’s figures are incredibly strong across all areas when compared to current custodians in the Premier League.

Verbruggen is third behind David Raya and Bernd Leno on 2022-23 season save percentage. He is also third behind Alisson Becker and Leno on goals prevented from far fewer appearances. Only Emiliano Martinez has better numbers for stopping crosses.

It should also be noted that Verbruggen is the youngest goalkeeper shown in the table above. It is noticeable that the two next youngest – Gavin Bazunu and Ilan Meslier – have the worst statistics within the Premier League.

Their performances for Southampton and Leeds United respectively contributed heavily to those sides being relegated. Being a goalkeeper is a difficult job at the best of times but even more so for young goalkeepers; for Verbruggen to be posting such numbers at the age of 20 is phenomenal.

Other Brighton goalkeepers
The analysis above makes it obvious how the youthful potential of Verbruggen fits the Brighton model and he would represent a very exciting signing in a key position.

Verbuggen will though be joining a squad that already has a set of very promising keepers. Alongside Jason Steele and Robert Sanchez, Brighton have third choice Tom McGill aged 23 and three goalkeepers who ended the 2022-23 season out on loan.

21-year-old Carl Rushworth was at Lincoln City in League One last season and Walsall in League Two the year before. 18-year-old James Beadle went to Crewe Alexandra in January and 23-year-old Scherpen spent the season at Vitesse Arnhem in the Netherlands.

In addition, 18-year-old Killian Cahill is the current Under 21s goalkeeper in Premier League 2. Neither Cahill nor McGill have games with recorded statistics for 2022-23.

Both Rushworth and Beadle have impressive save percentages, albeit Beadle’s coming from a small sample size. The table also shows Sanchez’s comparative performance in League One for Rochdale in 2019-29, the year before be broke into the Brighton first team.

Compare those numbers and read reports about Rushworth’s season with Lincoln and it appears that he is at least as ready as Sanchez was for Premier League football at the same stage of their careers following League One loan spells.

Scherpen’s save percentage is lower but interestingly improved as the season went on. His outstanding cross stopping percentage is not surprising at 6’8.

We have added pass completion percentages because this is so key to Roberto De Zerbi’s style of play. Passing is after all the main reason that Steele replaced Sanchez in the starting XI.

The percentage will naturally be significantly higher in a team playing as many short passes at the back as Brighton do, compared to the higher level of long balls at Lincoln.

Even so, Steele’s figures are clearly outstanding and it would appear this is a key area for Rushworth to improve. Fbref.com do not show figures for Verbruggen, but his ability on the ball is reported as a particular strength. You suspect De Zerbi would have little interest if it were not.

Brighton goalkeepers in 2023-24
It is understood that Scherpen has only one year left on his contract whilst Steele, Sanchez and Rushworth have two. Brighton often have the option of adding an additional year.

Tom McGill has just signed a contract extension to 2025, with the club putting in the option of an additional year in that deal. De Zerbi said of McGill: “I am very happy for Tom. He is a good player and good guy”.

The diagrams below show what the Brighton goalkeeper situation was in 2022-23. We can then speculate on what may now be the position for 2023-24.

Signing Verbruggen makes it even more likely that Sanchez will leave Brighton, given his unhappiness at Steele taking his first team place. There are conflicting reports as to whether Chelsea retain an interest in Sanchez.

Scherpen may also depart given he only has one year on his contract and the high regard in which Rushworth and Beadle are held. Scherpen had previously indicated he expected to join a Championship club on loan but a permanent move would surely make more sense now.

It seems probable therefore that Steele and Verbruggen will compete for the first team spot with McGill continuing as Brighton number three.

That leaves Rushworth and Beadle most likely to be loaned out again at a higher level than in 2022-23, namely the Championship for the former and League One for the latter. Oxford United have already expressed an interest in Beadle.

The additional European challenge adds to the potential need for a fourth goalkeeper in the event of significant injuries. Although Crystal Palace did obviously not in Europe during 2022-23, this was an issue faced by the Eagles.

If there are available spots in the overall squads declared, then an emergency keeper could be signed. Otherwise, Brighton will presumably want to be happy that whoever is their Under 21s number one in PL2 next season is strong enough to cover the role in an emergency. This may affect who is allowed to head out as part of the loan development programme.

Whatever decisions are made, the promise of Rushworth, Beadle and Cahill suggests the Albion look to have the goalkeeper position covered for many years to come.

And Brighton fans can only hope that Dierckx proves to be correct in his claim that Verbruggen will become one of the top five goalkeepers in the world.

Peter Finn