The next goalkeepers dilemma facing Brighton

Of the 20 Brighton players who have spent all or part of the 2023-24 season out on loan, it is the arguably the three young goalkeepers who have been the standout performers. This might well lead to another dilemma over the number one spot in the not-too-distant future.

Roberto De Zerbi and his much maligned goalkeeper rotation policy have grabbed plenty of headlines this season with Jason Steele and Bart Verbruggen sharing game time equally up until recently.

It is hard to argue that De Zerbi’s approach has worked, even if has been done with the best intention of playing two deserving goalkeepers.

Defensive cohesion has been harmed and the lack of consistency for either Steele or Verbruggen has led to Brighton sitting in 14th position for goalkeeper expected goals performance, conceded 3.6 more goals than they should have from the quality of chances created by opponents.

Goalkeeping remains one of the most important determinants of overall performance. It is notable that Brighton’s goals prevented stats for Steele and Verbruggen are worse than all the clubs the Albion are in competition with for a European place, except Chelsea.

Robert Sanchez has proven less an issue for the Blues than his rival for the number one shirt, conceding 0.8 goals more than expected compared with the 5.1 of Djordje Petrovic.

To further highlight the importance of the position, the single biggest issue behind Leeds United, Southampton and Leicester City being relegated las season proved to be goalkeeper mistakes.

It is not a problem the Saints have suitably addressed for the current campaign either. Southampton have conceded 10.4 more goals than expected; a better goalkeeping performance and Russell Martin‘s side would likely have achieved automatic promotion rather than facing a fight in the playoffs.

Southampton’s performance is some 16 goals worse than the best goalkeeper expected goals number in the Championship, recorded by Swansea City. The Swans number one? Carl Rushworth.

Brighton own three of the top five goalkeepers in top two divisions

The Albion having more goals scored this season by teenagers than the rest of the Premier League combined has been a widely quoted statistics.

Less publicly acknowledged is the same applies at the other end of the pitch. Only five goalkeepers under the age of 23 have made more one than one appearance across the Premier League and Championship so far this season.

Two of those are James Trafford at Burnley and Gavin Bazunu of Southampton. The other three are Brighton goalkeepers; Verbruggen, Rushworth and James Beadle.

Under 23 goalkeepers in the Premier League and Championship

 
The lack of playing time given to under 23s highlights the difficulties young goalkeepers face, as do the struggles of Trafford and Bazunu.

Both have goalkeeper expected goals performance below Verbruggen, Rushworth and Beadle. Based on these numbers, we can say the Albion own the three best young number ones playing in the top two divisions of English football this season.

Credit has to go to the recruitment department as well as Brighton’s goalkeeping coaching , led by Ben Roberts until he was part of the Graham Potter Chelsea exodus and now Jack Stern.

The Brighton goalkeepers conundrum

Verbruggen, Rushworth and Beadle are not the only talented young goalkeepers with a lot of potential on the books at Brighton. The club are left facing an interesting conundrum with up to six players capable of being part of the first team squad next season.

Along with the aforementioned three, Brighton have Steele as the only ‘experienced’ one in goalkeeper terms at the age of 33. The other two options are 24-year-old duo Kjell Scherpen and current third choice Tom McGill.

Bart Verbruggen

After a difficult start to life at Brighton, Verbruggen in recent weeks has started to look the goalkeeper with world class potential he was at Anderlecht last season.

Sky Sports have highlighted his improved form and despite it feeling like a mixed season, Verbruggen has acutally performed at a higher level than any other goalkeeper aged under 23 in the Premier League over the past two years.

He has looked particularly comfortable in the past two months and if that form were to be repeated over the entirety of next season, Brighton will be near the top of the goalkeeper expected goals chart for next season rather than languishing in 14th.

The expectation should therefore be that Verbruggen is undisputed Albion number one in 2024-25, before perhaps moving onto bigger and better things.

Bayern Munich have been linked with a move as Manuel Neuer begins to wind down his career, although if the report is to believed and the Germany giants really do think they can get a player from Brighton “on the cheap”, they may be in for a rude awakening. Just ask Todd Boehly.

Jason Steele

De Zerbi’s assertion that Steele’s footwork is amongst the best in Europe is backed up by the statistics. But even playing a style of football reliant on a playmaking goalkeeper, Steele’s negative performance on goals prevented indicate he should return to being the ideal number two next season.

Even that status might be called into question depending on what happens with Rushworth, Beadle and Scherpen. No matter where Steele finds himself in the pecking order, his much-heralded attitude and professionalism make him a good player to have around.

Tom McGill

As much as Steele has shown himself as an ideal squad keeper, Canadian international McGill has willingly filled the difficult role of number three goalkeeper with only the occasional appearance for the Under 21s in Premier League 2 as an overage player.

Despite there being little hope of him seemingly playing regular first team football at Brighton, McGill only recently signed a contract extension. De Zerbi commented at the time: “I’m very happy for Tom. He is a good player and a good guy.”

Carl Rushworth

Having served his apprenticeship through League Two with Walsall, League One at Lincoln City and now with the best prevented goal stats in the Championship for Swansea, Rushworth is surely ready to challenge for a Premier League place.

Both his and Beadle’s numbers are better at a younger age than Sanchez showed on loan before becoming Brighton number one.

The Daily Mirror have even reported that Gareth Southgate is considering handing Rushworth a place in the England squad for 2024 on account of other backup options to Jordan Pickford being injured, out-of-form or dropped by their clubs.

Such a rumour is not as far-fetched as it might first seem. Mark Margetson is Swansea and England goalkeeper coach, so works with Rushworth every day.

Margetson told The Athletic: “Carl has a lot of strengths. His in-possession game and technical goalkeeping are very strong.”

“It’s difficult to pick just one strength, but he is also a strong character mentally. He has all the attributes to be a top Premier League goalkeeper.”

Yet if Verbruggen, Steele and McGill all remain with Brighton this summer, another loan appears likely; first team football will be difficult to come by at the Amex and his development would be stunted by a season spent on the bench behind Verbruggen.

The question then becomes is there any value for Rushworth from a further year in the Championship? He has proven himself the best in the second tier this season based on goalkeeper expected goals performance, his numbers being so good as to suggest Swansea would be in a relegation battle without him.

A loan to a top flight foreign club would probably make most sense. There is also likely to be interest from other clubs looking to buy Rushworth from the Albion.

Swansea are certainly keen, so much so that manager Luke Williams rather amusingly made excited comments that Rushworth would stay with the Swans next season which he had to recently backtrack on.

In his clarification, Williams said: “He’s obviously a very good goalkeeper, a really good guy and we really like him a lot.”

“I know a lot of the people at Brighton as well. But sometimes if you build it they will come. So if you believe it enough maybe it’ll happen.”

“We know he’s a brilliant goalkeeper and I’m sure we’d be interested in him coming back here. We’ve been in touch with Brighton all the way through because they’re a brilliant club.”

“They want to always have contact to make sure and of course that conversation (about next season) has already happened because naturally you start to plan ahead and try to work out what’s possible. But it’s nothing more than that.”

“It will depend on many things. It won’t come down to my desire alone. There will be many things. It would be impossible for me to say at the moment.”

James Beadle

Beadle has followed the same route as Rushworth, starting in League Two with Crewe Alexandra before beginning the current campaign in League One with Oxford United.

His form for Oxford was such that several Championship clubs expressed interest in January, leading to Brighton to cut short Beadle’s loan at the Kassam Stadium so he could join Sheffield Wednesday.

Beadle instantly became number one in an improving Owls side and – one 6-0 defeat aside – his stats have been strong for Wednesday.

He might expect a full 2024-25 season in the Championship to complete his readiness to compete for a Premier League place in 2025-26.

Kjell Scherpen

Scherpen is often the forgotten one of the young Brighton goalkeepers out on loan. He was enjoying a very promising season with Sturm Graz until it was sadly cut short by ACL surgery in December, ruling him out for the rest of the campaign.

Given the form and potential of Rushworth and Beadle, Scherpen signing a new Albion deal running through to 2027 came as something of a surprise.

With Sturm very keen to take him back on loan, a return to Austria next season must be on the cards. Not only did he prove a success in the Bundesliga, but he also shone in the Europa League before injury.

Perhaps the reason Brighton have kept Scherpen despite having so many other goalkeepers is because he offers a different dimension to the others, standing 6’9 tall.

This height means Scherpen’s cross-stopping stats are amongst the best in Europe, 11 percent being around twice the average.

Scherpen’s spell with Sturm has shown he has what it takes to challenge for a Premier League place. Quite where he fits in remains to be seen.

Brighton signing more goalkeepers? Surely not

Not content with the glut of goalkeepers already at the club, Brighton bought in 19-year-old Australian Steven Hall from Adelaide United in the January transfer window to compete for the Under 21s number one spot with equally promising 20-year-old Killian Cahill.

Hall and Cahill may well start their own loan pathways next season, heading into League Two as Sanchez, Rushworth and Beadle did before them.

And just when you think the Albion do not need anymore goalkeepers, so the rumour mill starts turning regarding the potential signing of 23-year-old Colombian Kevin Mier.

Verbruggen. Steele. McGill. Rushworth. Beadle. Scherpen. Cahill. Hall. Mier. Nine goalkeepers. After this season’s rotation, maybe De Zerbi’s next goalkeeping experiment will be a starting XI made up entirely of goalkeepers?

Peter Finn