The only predictable thing about the Albion is unpredictability

If I have learnt anything in my 40 years of following the Albion, it’s that it is never prudent to try and predict where Brighton will finish in a league as you either look big headed or like a bedwetter.

The only thing predictable about the Albion is that they are unpredictable. Only the foolish would guess where Brighton will be when the final whistle of the 2021-22 blows.

It is even more risky to line the pockets of various bookmakers, especially when the club’s recruitment team still have a couple of weeks left to excite the ‘ITK’ transfer Twitteratis and their followers.

There have of course been exceptions to the rule. The 2016-17 season when we finally reached the Premier League; winning Division Three (or League Two for all you Gen Z crew) in 2000-01; and the dire 2005-06 season that saw Mark McGhee have one too many pints of whisky were all outcomes which could be seen coming a mile off.

The 1991-92 season is a great example of how optimism can quickly dissipate into apathy. Just three months earlier we had taken over 30,000 to Wembley to our first play off final against Notts County and we still had many of the players who performed so bravely in getting to within one game of the top flight.

Despite Mike Small leaving for £400,000 to West Ham United and Sunderland sniffing around Johnny Byrne, there was an air of optimism before the campaign and it was nothing to do with the fact our home kit looked like a large supermarket’s carrier bag. Manager Barry Lloyd even guaranteed that Brighton would get out of the second tier after the previous year’s heartbreak.

However, optimism quickly turned to pessimism when we were outplayed by newly promoted Tranmere Rovers on the opening day of the season and nine months later, we were yet again back in the third tier of English football. Lloyd did at least keep his promise, even if it was via the wrong door.

I doubt many of us watching the Albion getting hammered 4-1 by Bristol Rovers at the long-departed Twerton Park that season could have expected us to be kicking off our fifth season in England’s top flight 30 years later, but here we are.

This season will bring many challenges to Graham Potter. Not least the ongoing striker conundrum. There is no doubt that the attacking players we have at the club at this moment in time have the potential to score 10 goals a season.

A fully fit and firing Dat Guy Welbz showed glimpses that he was capable of that last year. There also seems to be a belief from within the club that Aaron Connolly and Neal Maupay can get goals and Potter’s loyalty to those two in particular suggests that they owe the manager the return they should have had last season.

We all know that there were ample chances for Messrs Connolly and Maupay to score – but let us not forget that they are still both learning their craft and we are one to two seasons away from knowing whether they can reach their full potential.

For now however, if we are not going to supplement our forward line with an expensive free-scoring striker then we need to rely on other areas of the pitch. That is where a certain Zambian who goes by the name of Enock could make a huge difference this year.

At times last year when we played against those around us in the bottom half of the table we looked awfully predictable and static. What Mwepu has done well in his pre-season and also so successfully at Salzburg is break through defensive lines and get into the sort of pockets of space Adam Lallana used to occupy in his younger days.

This means that all of a sudden, defenders are having to deal with overload situations and gaps start appearing where there should not be gaps.

Players like Connolly, Maupay and the Romanian Resurrection – aka Florin Andone – could then find they have more freedom in front of goal and that hopefully means converting some of that blasted xG into rG (real goals for all you data nerds out there).

It is because of this that I think Potter may be more relaxed about his striking options this year than last. He is of course already more relaxed than many of us who constantly swipe down and refresh their Twitter accounts on the BHAFC hashtag every 19 minutes.

Brighton are never going to compete financially with the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool or even Mike Small-buying West Ham, but getting the right balance end-to-end on the pitch will be Potter’s main aim if the recruitment team fail to land one of their striking targets.

Our Graham regularly suggests that he is happy to work with what he has. Another successful season with small resources by Premier League standards may see his head turned by one of the big boys.

You would not begrudge Potter from being tempted, especially if he feels that his head is hitting the proverbial ceiling and that he has gone as far as he can under the constraints of the financial structure at the club as Gus Poyet once did.

For now though, Potter is still learning his trade just like our young strikers. With our current squad, many of us feel that we are just one or two players away from the dream of qualifying for the Europa Conference Mickey Mouse Sherpa Shield and an away leg against a team who finished ninth in the Ukrainian Premier League.

At the same time as dreaming of Thursday evenings in Eastern Europe, most of us would also be happy with a 97th minute deflected equaliser off Lukasz Fabianski’s backside against West Ham in the final game of the season to keep us in the Premier League for another year.

Anything to avoid a Championship game somewhere war-torn like Luton on a Tuesday night and having to play in the first round of the League Cup.

There is feeling that the Premier League will be more open at both ends that it has been for a number of years. It is unlikely that those coming up will pull up any trees as has happened in recent season and because of this there should be at least five to six teams who perform worse than Brighton in the league.

A great footballing prophet once said, “Football is a funny old game, Saint!” I would not write Brighton off from reaching a comfortable top eight finish and yet at the same time, 1991-92 is proof that nether would I write us off finishing in the bottom three.

Anyone want to place a bet?