Tough week – but Brighton still on course for top eight finish

What a tough week for Brighton. Exiting the FA Cup because of a penalty shootout. Falling to a painful home defeat against one of our closest league competitors. And then defeat at Crystal Palace.

Throw in season ending injuries for Georginio Rutter and Adam Webster, it is a lot to take in seven days. Things suddenly seem a lot tougher than they did going into the international break in terms of European qualification.

This is a season where the FA Cup has been wide open for the first time in years. And the Premier League is set to see more clubs qualify for European competition than ever before.

If the Albion end the campaign empty handed by a point or penalty or two, Brighton fans will surely feel cheated. There has never been a better chance to make Europe or win a trophy than in 2024-25.

Depending on who lifts the FA Cup and who takes the top five slots likely to offer Champions League qualification, it is possible that eighth could mean Europa Conference League.

The much-quoted Opta Sports Supercomputer is still predicting a seventh or eighth place finish for Brighton. With a 19 percent chance of ending the season in the top five.

If the Albion miss out on Europe altogether, a secondary goal has to be avoiding Palace leapfrogging us in the table. Them doing so on the final day of last season having been 14 points behind only a couple of months earlier stung.

Looking at the remaining games and considering how unpredictable the Albion have been this season, it is hard to guess how many points might be secured.

On paper, a win against all-but-certainly-relegated Leicester at the Amex this Saturday ought to be a given. But how many times have lower placed teams caused us problems at home this season?

Brentford away is tough one. Half a dozen points separate us now. It could easily be a different story by the time we face them at the Gtech Stadium on April 19th.

The Bees take on Chelsea and Arsenal next. Regardless of what happens to both clubs over the next fortnight, Brentford is always a tough fixture. For Tony Bloom, one of particular significant and rivalry.

Graham Potter then returns to the Amex for just the second time since leaving for Chelsea. Hosting West Ham is another opportunity for three points.

The Hammers have been winless since victory over Arsenal at the Emirates at the end of February. That record may in part be down to being well clear of relegation with little to play for. Something that should also help the Albion.

Going into the final month of the season, Carabao Cup winners Newcastle United already have European football guaranteed via that memorable trophy win.

If they arrive at the Amex with little hope of Champions League qualification, they too may ease up. But if they are in the race for the top five, it will be a different challenge altogether.

Wolves will have surely secured safety by the time Brighton go to Molineux on May 10th. Again, that will give the Albion much more to play for than the Old Gold.

The Opta Supercomputer predicts an 89.9 percent chance Liverpool will win the title. It it is hard to see the circumstances under which Arne Slot’s side haven’t tied that up with a red bow by the penultimate weekend of the season.

Will they have their minds elsewhere for their visit to the Amex? Leaving the Albion with another opportunity for three points against opponents already on the beach.

Let us hope that one way or another, it does not come down to the final Sunday at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Spurs will want to end a lacklustre season with a home win.

Despite languishing 11 points off the top half of the table, Ange Postecoglu will aim to go out on a high if he is to be replaced over the summer. As many expect.

My rough guess? A maximum of 15 points from our remaining fixtures. Which would give us a final total of 62 points. Enough for seventh place last season. Pretty much in line with those supercomputer predictions.

It is too soon to write us off. Even if defeats to Villa and Palace makes European qualification look a lot harder than it did during our recent undefeated run. Not to mention losing the in-form Rutter and Webster.

Even if Europe does elude us, by any reckoning it has been an incredibly good season. A young head coach new to the Premier League leading a squad heavy on youth and crippled again by more injuries than any other club to a respectable finish. Most of us would have taken that at the start of the campaign.

To reach the quarter finals of the FA Cup been consistently in the top half of the table all season is something dozens of clubs envy.

And to cite Opta again, Brighton are rated as the 16th best club in the world at the moment. Four places above Juventus. Eight above Manchester United.

Nearly a decade in the top flight, a coach challenging for Europe in his first season in charge and a squad brimming with promise ought to put even the most pessimistic of Albion fans – and I often count myself amongst their number – in a count your blessings mood heading into the summer break.

There is, as they say, a way to go still. The prize, whilst a little further away, is not yet out of reach.

This column is dedicated to the memory of my friend and Albion fan Nigel Jenner.

Warren Morgan @warrenmorgan