What do the bookies reckon about Brighton’s chances this season?
The 2019-20 Premier League season is just one week away, which makes this seem like as good a time as any to see what the bookmakers reckon on Brighton’s chances under Graham Potter.
Spread betting firm Spreadex have produced a season preview for all 20 of the top flight’s teams ahead of the new campaign. We’ve taken a look at what their traders make of the Albion’s chances.
Points 35.5 – 37
Spreadex’s points spread suggests that they believe Brighton will accumulate between 36 and 37 points this season. That would be one point more than the 35 collected under Chris Hughton last time out.
In only two seasons this decade have teams been relegated with 37 or more points – Birmingham City and Blackpool in 2010-11 and Newcastle United in 2015-16. Based on that, there’s a good chance the Albion will avoid the drop again. Crack open the champagne.
Final finishing position 15.75-16.75
According to Spreadex, the Albion will be finishing in 16th place come the end of the season. That would be one spot higher than last year but still a position down on the 15th that Hughton achieved in the Albion’s first top flight season.
At this moment in time, it’s hard to argue with that sort of assessment. Leandro Trossard aside, it’s virtually the same team who won two league games in five months.
Throw in a rookie manager with no Premier League experience, and it’s little wonder the majority of the outside world is tipping us to struggle. In fact, you could argue that 16th spot is being a tad generous.
Glenn Murray goals 8 – 9
Unless the Albion manage to bring in a big money striker, Glenn Murray will continue to lead the attack past his 36th birthday next month. At some point, age is going to catch up with him – but it might not necessarily be this season.
Murray scored more goals in 2018-19 than he did in 2017-18, despite playing in a team who struggled more. Interestingly, Murray told people around the club that with a more positive approach, he felt he could have added possibly another six to his total. That was one of the reasons he led the delegation to Hughton asking for a change in approach.
Potter will bring that attacking mindset, whether it be through 4-2-3-1 which plays to Murray’s strengths, the bold 3-4-3 that we saw at Birmingham last weekend or another formation he has up his sleeve.
Murray’s looked in good form so far in pre-season too, scoring against FC Liefering and Birmingham and putting in a cheeky claim for Pascal Gross’ goal in the defeat to Fulham.
Give how he confounds the critics every year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Murray beat his 15 goals from last season. We’ll certainly be buying him to exceed nine.
Pascal Gross assists 7.5 – 8.5
Following his stellar debut campaign, Gross had something of a disappointing 2018-19 season. He wasn’t helped by a succession of niggling injuries and then he was one of the major casualties of Hughton’s switch to 4-3-3, never looking as effective in a three man midfield as he does in the number 10 role.
How effective Gross is this season will depend on how Potter uses him. He’s looked good in pre-season as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 but didn’t feature in the 3-4-3 at St Andrews.
Spreadex have him down to get eight assists this season, but really it’s impossible to know.
Leandro Trossard assists 5 – 6
It’s interesting that Spreadex believe that Gross will claim more assists than Leandro Trossard this season.
Perhaps it’s because the bookies don’t know too much about the £18m arrival from Genk. Or perhaps it’s because they’ve just assumed any big money signing our recruitment team makes is going to be rubbish based on experience – we’re looking at you, Alireza Jahanbakhsh and Jurgen Locadia.
From what we’ve seen so far, Trossard is miles apart from those two. He’s already scored one and assisted three in pre-season and his flexibility means he’s likely to start in whatever formation Potter uses.
We don’t want to get too carried away, but Trossard looks like a decent acquisition. Over six assists in his first campaign in England? Sign us up.
You can sign up for a Spreadex account to bet on the Albion in the 2019-20 season. New users can receive up to £300 cashback or an iPad 2018 in their first 28 days based on bets placed on qualifying markets. To join, follow this link.
