What is going on with Leo Ostigard this summer?

In amongst Yves Bissouma being sold to Spurs and Marc Cucurella agreeing personal terms with Manchester City on 77 separate occasions so far, another transfer saga involving a Brighton player seems to have been taking place almost unnoticed – Leo Ostigard.

More rumours have swirled around Ostigard than there were Cabinet resignations forcing Boris Johnson to quit. With so much speculation, it seems that Ostigard will join Johnson in having a new home in the not-too-distant future.

The chief clubs said to be interested in his services (Ostigard not Johnson) are Napoli and Torino. The quoted fee has varied from £500,000 (lol) to £10 million. Other sources say it will be a season long loan with option to buy at the end.

What exactly is going on then? Why are the Albion considering selling a defender most of us thought would make the grade at the Amex? And who is most likely to get a deal over the line, if indeed Brighton do decide to get rid?

With a bottle of Moretti to hand in honour of the fact he seems likely to end up in Italy, we have taken on the ominous task of sifting through it all to try and fathom the mystery surrounding Leo Ostigard and his Brighton future.

Why would Brighton sell Leo Ostigard?
The big question in all this is not where Ostigard is headed, but why Brighton are considering selling him at all? The Albion are short of centre backs and Ostigard has enjoyed successful loan spells with St Pauli, Coventry City and Genoa over the past three seasons.

There seem to be two possible reasons as to why the Albion would get rid this summer, rather than giving Ostigard a chance in the Premier League.

The first is that Graham Potter has concluded he is not good enough. Most Albion fans would be shocked at that. The general consensus amongst supporters – and a reminder here that we have only seen him fleetingly in a Brighton first team shirt last pre-season – is that he is a very talented footballer.

His performance in a 0-0 friendly draw with Rangers a year ago drew plenty of praise. It was something of a surprise when Potter then sent Ostigard to Stoke City on loan, despite the sale of Ben White to Arsenal leaving a vacancy in the Albion defence.

Potter instead chose Shane Duffy to fill it. Head and block Duffy had never been a Potter player. He had endured a nightmare season on loan at Celtic in a dreadful Scottish Premier League. And yet Potter viewed him as a better option than Ostigard.

Even more telling was what happened with Ostigard in January. With Dan Burn sold, Lewis Dunk injured and Adam Webster about to join the captain in the treatment room, Ostigard returned from the Bet365 Stadium at the same moment as the Albion’s defensive options where utterly depleted.

Rather than challenge for a first team spot, he was sent back out on loan. Genoa was his destination for the next five months whilst the Albion went through a disastrous spell of operating with a back four, followed by the much more successful conversion of Marc Cucurella into a defender capable of playing in a three man defence.

Potter’s unwillingness to use Leo Ostigard when the Brighton cupboard was completely bare suggests on the face of it that he does not rate Ostigard.

There is however an alternative scenario, in which Ostigard has instead frequently requested to leave Brighton on loan in search of first team football.

The story where 16-year-old Ostigard knocked on the door of Molde manager Ole Gunnar Solksjaer and told Solksjaer to play him in the first team has been well told.

Ostigard is confident and fiercely ambitious. It would be no surprise were he unhappy at the prospect of merely playing backup to Dunk, Webster and Joel Veltman.

When he returned from Coventry last summer, he said he would seek another loan move if he was not playing first team football for Brighton. Ostigard wants to play every week for the good of his career and to keep his spot in the Norway national squad.

Having proven himself in Serie A with Genoa, both Ostigard and Brighton may feel he has outgrown another loan spell. If the Albion cannot offer him the regular playing time he craves in the coming season, then maybe a parting of the ways is in the interests of all parties.

Who is interested in Leo Ostigard?
Napoli and Torino lead the chase for Ostigard, according to the rumour mill. Both were suitably impressed by his 15 games at Geona to contact Brighton even as the wonderfully nicknamed Old Fool were relegated from Serie A.

Unsurprisingly given Napoli can offer Champions League football, Ostigard is most keen on a move to Naples. One particularly juicy rumour doing the rounds is that he has already rejected Torino out of hand.

Brighton have taken the opposite position. Whilst Napoli have been dicking around making derisory offers in an attempt to land Ostigard as cheaply as possible, Torino came in much closer to the Albion’s asking price.

The Seagulls would therefore prefer Ostigard to go to Torino; Ositgard wants to move to Napoli. Which will not happen unless Napoli meet Brighton’s valuation. And so exists the current impasse.

How much will Brighton get for Leo Ostigard?
Napoli were said to have made an opening offer of a loan with an option to buy. To follow that with bids way below want Brighton want suggests that there may be cashflow problems at Stadio San Paolo.

Napoli are trying to either delay starting payments until 2023 by borrowing Ostigard for a year first or want to sign him on the cheap for a fraction of what he is worth.

Or maybe they are saving their budget for a certain Cristiano Ronaldo, who has been linked with a move to Naples? They could genuinely think bids of £500,000 to £1 million are acceptable for a 22-year-old defender already proven in Serie A and with the potential to improve… if they have been snorting too much funny stuff.

How much Brighton actually want for Ostigard is one of the least clear areas of the whole situation. The most commonly reported fee for the Albion to do business is £2.5 million.

The Argus however said towards the end of June that Napoli had offered £3.5 million, a bid which presumably has been rejected seeing as there has been no movement two weeks later.

In terms of similar deals involving young players who never played a first team game for Brighton, the Albion secured £1.5 million from Rostov for Mathias Normann in January 2019.

Ales Mateju joined Brescia for a scarcely believable £4 million in July 2019, two years and zero league appearances after Brighton had paid £2.5 million to Viktoria Plzen for his services. It was one of the strangest transfer dealings of recent years.

Ostigard is clearly much more talented than either of those players. He is a full international, part of an exciting new generation of Norwegian players including Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard. He is open to further improvement and he is wanted by the third best team in Italy last season.

Where does this leave his market value? Somewhere between £6 and £10 million if the Albion were in a position of strength, with performance related bonuses and a hefty sell on clause inserted should Ostigard go onto deliver success for Napoli.

Unfortunately, Brighton are not in a position of strength. Ostigard is out of contract next summer, so he can sign a pre-contract agreement with Napoli, Torino or any other club in Europe as soon as January ahead of a free transfer departure in a year.

That makes it even more ridiculous that Napoli thought a loan deal would appeal to Brighton. Yeah, you have him for the year, don’t take up the option to buy officially and then sign him on a free when he is out of contract.

Ultimately, it is likely to be the contract situation which decides what happens to Ostigard this summer. Better for Brighton to cash in now and get something for him than risk losing him on a free – even if Potter does not rate him enough to give him a shot at Premier League football.